Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[Dewpoint Dan]

Stout ULL and it just rains and rains and rains

How do you get rain from a stout ULL in the dead of winter ? Is that even possible ?

 

[ATLwxfan]

Pretty sad when this look translates to rain during peak climo View attachment 61707

The mountains get crushed. We can always take a roadtrip. But yeah it doesn’t look all that exciting otherwise. Heckuva winter for rain lovers though.


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[FallsLake]

Stout ULL and it just rains and rains and rains

We're missing a "good" high pressure to feed down the cold. As others have said, this thing has to generate its own cold; and we know how that usually works out.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

How do you get rain from a stout ULL in the dead of winter ? Is that even possible ?

How do you get rain from a stout ULL in the dead of winter ? Is that even possible ?

Just watch the radar a week from today. It’ll be a clinic.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Boooo

 

[Downeastnc]

Got big areas of standing water in my yard, typically only see them in tropical type systems or training thunderstorms, its rare to get them in the winter, calling for 1-2" more tonight so reckon they gonna get bigger.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

We're missing a "good" high pressure to feed down the cold. As others have said, this thing has to generate its own cold; and we know how that usually works out.

I’ve seen it work in March but there just isn’t an inkling of cold to be found anywhere on this side of the northern hemisphere. We should be seeing at least some -20’s and -30’s up in to Canada by now.

 

[ATLwxfan]

We're missing a "good" high pressure to feed down the cold. As others have said, this thing has to generate its own cold; and we know how that usually works out.

Those cold cores only work in Texas. But yeah that’s our only shot aside from altitude. Canada is


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[BHS1975]

Got big areas of standing water in my yard, typically only see them in tropical type systems or training thunderstorms, its rare to get them in the winter, calling for 1-2" more tonight so reckon they gonna get bigger.

Yeah been a MASSIVE increase in rain the last couple years due to AGW. Gonna be a rainforest soon. I'm seeing a lot of heavy downpours lately that never happened before in winter.


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[Myfrotho704_]

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I’ve seen it work in March but there just isn’t an inkling of cold to be found anywhere on this side of the northern hemisphere. We should be seeing at least some -20’s and -30’s up in to Canada by now.View attachment 61713

Yeah this was gonna be a problem with the first wave anyways, that’s why my expectations with it is quite low

 

[BHS1975]

View attachment 61714

Euro gonna bring it back to reality next run.


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[Myfrotho704_]

This just looks more likely imo

 

[LickWx]

I’ve seen it work in March but there just isn’t an inkling of cold to be found anywhere on this side of the northern hemisphere. We should be seeing at least some -20’s and -30’s up in to Canada by now.View attachment 61713

Have to sniff the warmth to taste the cold . Canada torches and we are seasonably cold = bad . Canada freezes and we torch = better chance as there is cold to get . Even January 1985 got warm and hit 75 before the record cold .

 

[Stormdoc]

View attachment 61714

GFS a good bit colder in 8-10 day with another S/W as noted. I think this time frame has a better shot

 

[BHS1975]

I’ve seen it work in March but there just isn’t an inkling of cold to be found anywhere on this side of the northern hemisphere. We should be seeing at least some -20’s and -30’s up in to Canada by now.View attachment 61713

That giant block ain't gonna help us until we get the cross polar flow.


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[Myfrotho704_]

Like this one better, colder air in place, just need to get things in the right place

 

[SD]

Yeah been a MASSIVE increase in rain the last couple years due to AGW. Gonna be a rainforest soon. I'm seeing a lot of heavy downpours lately that never happened before in winter.


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Just like those 60 degree dewpoints in December right?

 

[LovingGulfLows]

Like this one better, colder air in place, just need to get things in the right place View attachment 61716

Mid level temps look fine, but of course, we're missing the low level cold air source. We would need to see a trend towards heavier precip to maybe get an adiabatic cooling process going. Looks interesting though....2 consecutives systems where the closed ULL is this far south.