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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

Brick Tamland said:
But if they didn't produce snow in the past then why would they be great patterns?


It doesn't have to be a historic storm. Just ssying if a pattern is called great for producing snow around here then it should be one that we have seen in the past that more times than not did produce. I don't think it would be a pattern that was called great if that wasn't the case.
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It's considered great because it's a remembered or composited pattern that produced snow here and they generally share common traits. What isn't remembered or compiled is how many times historically we had similar patterns that didn't work. That leads to a misconseption that these patterns always produce and if they don't we don't know what works anymore.

We live in a location that might on average have a general less than 10% chance of seeing snow on any winter day. If you have patterns that increase those odds to 33-50-70 I would consider that great but there's still a fail percentage. It's like having your best free throw shooter who hits 80% at the line in an end of game situation. History says there's a good chance they make it but statistically they may miss.
 
Updated the final map for NC from the storm that hit us a few days ago. Thanks to SD, I added a dusting contour to far SW Wake and Chatham-Harnett County line. Also added a dusting contour from Greenville to just outside Elizabeth City as radar strongly supported some accumulating snow there as banding sat over these places for several hours (not unlike Yanceyville in the northern Piedmont. I also heard some rumblings of there being 2” on the ground this morning in Plymouth, NC. If anyone has ground truth or knows anyone in that area to see if they saw anything I’d love to hear about it.

AF942437-56CE-485F-BDA5-4354E9181EC4.jpeg
 
SD said:
It's considered great because it's a remembered or composited pattern that produced snow here and they generally share common traits. What isn't remembered or compiled is how many times historically we had similar patterns that didn't work. That leads to a misconseption that these patterns always produce and if they don't we don't know what works anymore.

We live in a location that might on average have a general less than 10% chance of seeing snow on any winter day. If you have patterns that increase those odds to 33-50-70 I would consider that great but there's still a fail percentage. It's like having your best free throw shooter who hits 80% at the line in an end of game situation. History says there's a good chance they make it but statically they may miss.
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Exactly. Even patterns where we have completely run the table on every single teleconnection still only produce a legit accumulating snow ~40% of the time around here. This pattern obviously isn’t that favorable so historically odds still are at best 1 in 3 if not 1 in 4 for snow here ~Jan 20, but that’s infinitely better than climo where we get probably 2 storms a winter
 
Definitely a difference, I like that look on the euro with that 2nd panel, pop a southern wave there and that’s maybe money B9860582-9FBA-44CC-8937-104ACECF05EF.pngA11C424E-F3AE-4AEB-A5E1-7D394FB015FD.png
 
SD said:
Your saw what happened last year with no SSW and the PV was similar to the great jupiter storm. You aren't going to get high latitude blocking with a strong pv. If you can't get HLB you might as well move along
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While we did have the PV locked away like the great red spot, but I've not seen any colder air or more snow this year with all this blocking.

Its a big bag of blah.
 
smast16 said:
While we did have the PV locked away like the great red spot, but I've not seen any colder air or more snow this year with all this blocking.

Its a big bag of blah.
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At this time last year you had a trace of snow in GSO, you've had 0.3" thus far so this is wrong. The only accumulating event of the year came on Feb 20th, it's also still January 10th soo...
 
smast16 said:
While we did have the PV locked away like the great red spot, but I've not seen any colder air or more snow this year with all this blocking.

Its a big bag of blah.
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From a snow perspective yeah there isn't much difference between 0 and fractional inches. On the temp side Dec was 4 degrees colder than 19 and January is looking similar vs 20. I mean at this time last year I had some green bermuda grass still going and some greening back up. I get it though if the results aren't producing snow what's the difference
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Went from this View attachment 64793
To this View attachment 64794
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Disaster vs freezer. I noticed on the eps box whiskers yesterday that there was about a 45 degree difference between max and min highs in this time frame and about a 30 degree difference between 10 and 90%. Probably not a lot of middle ground either we ridge into Ak, pull the nao west and maybe trap a lobe of the pv over Canada or we trough Ak and SE ridge. Good times
 
I get that with the upcoming pattern it's possible to produce a winter storm. However with the changes the last couple of days, it doesn't look very likely to produce a winter storm IMO. To me that's my frustration. Maybe that's statistical semantics but that's my feel. Hate the western trough, hate the WAR poking back up rather than lower heights off the east coast and under us. Normal to a bit below normal cold CAN work for us, but it's the well below cold into the south east that make it much more likely....and we've lost that.
 
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