• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

LovingGulfLows said:
Mid level temps look fine, but of course, we're missing the low level cold air source. We would need to see a trend towards heavier precip to maybe get an adiabatic cooling process going. Looks interesting though....2 consecutives systems where the closed ULL is this far south.
Click to expand...
Yeah this is all it manages to do, could be much better imo F99DF560-2802-4CE6-8F4A-0B5071C40FD7.png
 
RVD said:
Oh man that’s close. All you’d really need is a little more confluence from a stronger or more SE 50/50 low. I like that look at 500mb.
Click to expand...
Yeah, I think the theme so far has been the models actually getting better and showing a promising pattern around this range the last 2 days, GFS was just a dumpster fire after the first warm system from day 7-10, now it’s showing potential, and so
Is the CMC.
 
Lickwx said:
Have to sniff the warmth to taste the cold . Canada torches and we are seasonably cold = bad . Canada freezes and we torch = better chance as there is cold to get . Even January 1985 got warm and hit 75 before the record cold .
Click to expand...
I mean I get it. Torching Canada does keep us reasonably “cool” and when Canada is in the freezer that doesn’t always translate to cold around here. It seems we at least need some tappable cold air at the very least in SE Canada. Enough to time a piece of high pressure with. As always, WNC and other areas that do well with marginal cold are still in the ballgame with the current pattern.
 
Day 6 UK

sfcwind_mslp.us_ma.png


500hv.us_ma.png
 
SD said:
Probably has happened many times but no one remembers bc it was rain. Our snow climo would be much better if every decent look panned out
Click to expand...
To add to this and I'm not trying to poop on your post @Jimmy Hypocracy but this setup reminds me of the old ones where the older gfs versions would show epic storms for days while the Euro would say no then the gfs would trend north
 
SD said:
Probably has happened many times but no one remembers bc it was rain. Our snow climo would be much better if every decent look panned out
Click to expand...

I don’t know about Raleigh, but I do know of only one pure “bowling ball”/upper low (i.e., with no accompanying cold surface high to the north and no low surface center to the south) that produced major snow (3.5”+) at KATL and that was early March of 2009. By far the best opportunity for ATL has been associated with a Gulf or near Gulf coast surface low that is often weak in combo with a well timed cold enough surface high that is still leading to cold air advection at or higher than 850 mb. So, often that surface high is then still located in the Midwest rather than the NE US. When the high is already in the NE, that’s when ATL is more likely to face a CAD based mainly IP/ZR because by then 850s are already rising above 0C. For either of these, the 500 mb flow is usually WSW or SW.
 
Last edited:
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top