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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

Not often do we see the euro trending in our favor as we get within 5-6 days. Haven’t seen many fantasy storms this year either inside 144hrs or so. I’m really liking what we are seeing. Webb is right though, you always fear the warm nose even if every single ensemble shows 12” of snow 24 hrs before onset ( like the RDU January sleet storm that shall not be named).
 
Montanasnow30 said:
I’ll never forget that one I still hate that system to this day
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It was a heartbreaker for many in the Carolinas as well. The last NWS forecast update before the storm arrived had me getting 10-14 inches. It started as heavy snow for about 45 minutes and got about 1/2 an inch. Then the warm nose took over and we had 8 hours of 33 degree heavy rain
 
Arcc said:
That is the area that was hit hardest. I had 9-10” here in Coosa county in 2017.
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9 to 10 inches is definitely awesome I was staying in Tuscaloosa county at the time and we was lucky to get half an inch from that 2017 event
 
KyloG said:
The control is what I am thinking. I think a bigger event but focused NW NC into central VA.

View attachment 62253
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If we continue to get more confluence aloft (which is aiding in colder 850s) then this look may be correct accounting the warm nose, however if we get any little south tick with the upper level system while keeping solid confluence or even improving it, it may get even slightly further south
 
I like that we’re at least trending this storm within 4-5 days away .. that’s usually the mark when models actually sniff out the real NC winter storms .. usually never a long range thing.. they are sniffed from short term to mid range for our area that why this gives me a bit of confidence ... I’m just waiting to see a pink layer shine through the Piedmont once we are in NAM range
 
iGRXY said:
That lasted all of 2 1/2 minutes
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Didn't you see the tweets, we are mean bullies!

Seriously though earlier today @metwannabe gave @Ollie Williams, @KyloG, or @Myfrotho704_ the ok to start the thread later today.

Given we have the ignore feature we have to be a little more careful with thread starters these days. We don't want staff to always start all threads since I know it's exciting for folks but we have to make sure the thread starter isn't ignored by 40% of the board
 
Dewpoint Dan said:
Apparently there are guidelines on who and when to start a thread. Where are these guidelines ?
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It was actually posted in the January thread earlier, after 0z tonight those asked can start that thread at that time
 
SD said:
Didn't you see the tweets, we are mean bullies!

Seriously though earlier today @metwannabe gave @Ollie Williams, @KyloG, or @Myfrotho704_ the ok to start the thread later today.

Given we have the ignore feature we have to be a little more careful with thread starters these days. We don't want staff to always start all threads since I know it's exciting for folks but we have to make sure the thread starter isn't ignored by 40% of the board
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So why does everyone have the option to start a thread ? Shouldn't that option be taken away ?
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
If we continue to get more confluence aloft (which is aiding in colder 850s) then this look may be correct accounting the warm nose, however if we get any little south tick with the upper level system while keeping solid confluence or even improving it, it may get even slightly further south
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Think its possible to get it to shift far enough for south charlotte? Or is that asking too much
 
With stronger confluence from the 50/50 low, and building HP over the northeast and Midwest, ULL are known to be very very tricky and usually trend colder (as we are seeing), I like how the track is getting further and further south. If you can get a track just south of I20 with the stronger push of cold air that we are seeing showing up, I really think this could be a very sneaky big event for NE GA, the Upstate, through the Piedmont, over to the Raleigh area. Granted they need the ULL to move further offshore once it rounds the bend. There’s still plenty of time for this to trend even further south and we really only need it another 50-100 miles further south to really get locked into a strong track.
 
Why does the map look like this? Who did we piss off?
99a2fc8f0bc08dbe8ab0065ece4ad027.jpg



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