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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

Strong ULL passing south.. will see a healthy deformation band out of this one

500hv-conus-1.png
 
Exactly what I figured we would seen soon enough. The blocking we have over top and strong confluence isn’t going to let this thing go north and likely will push it further south. You’re seeing the cold getting pulled in better as well. I think we have room for a little more south trend but don’t be surprised to see the temps get even better the closer we get.
 
iGRXY said:
Exactly what I figured we would seen soon enough. The blocking we have over top and strong confluence isn’t going to let this thing go north and likely will push it further south. You’re seeing the cold getting pulled in better as well. I think we have room for a little more south trend but don’t be surprised to see the temps get even better the closer we get.
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Hope your right
 
Broken024 said:
Hope your right
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Only way ULL really work is either you have to get the most perfect track and formation and hope it goes just to your south or in this case have double barrel blocking so that it can’t cut north. The ULL followed I20 to a T and the upstate was finally put in the game. That’s the perfect tract.
 
iGRXY said:
Only way ULL really work is either you have to get the most perfect track and formation and hope it goes just to your south or in this case have double barrel blocking so that it can’t cut north. The ULL followed I20 to a T and the upstate was finally put in the game. That’s the perfect tract.
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Yea verbatim it's too warm in south Charlotte for some reason (directly east)
 
Ollie Williams said:
@wow says precip is under modeled verbatim.
View attachment 62293
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GFS probably struggling with convective feedback issues as the surface low approached the Gulf Stream, which may have interrupted the moisture transport back towards RDU and points north and east this run. Heavier rates might have meant the snow line extending southeastward one additional row of counties, all other things being equal.

gfs_ref_frzn_seus_18.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Still tons of warm advection and very strong deep-layer veering in these soundings from RDU-GSO. RDU-CLT rain-snow line is likely at best very generous given what the GFS is showing verbatim


View attachment 62294
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By the time WAA finally goes away, we're getting some diurnal heating plus the precip is tapering off and sfc temps are warming close to the upper 30s.

1609734162360.png
 
Things have definitely trended in the right direction today. 5 days out and it's looking good at this moment.
 
I started the thread with the purpose of keeping the pattern discussion one from becoming more cluttered.

Wintry - January 8-9 Wintery Weather Potential!

Since we cluttering up the main thread, with permission from the mods, and the start of the 00z models, I’ve decided to start a thread for our system that’s currently sitting five days out. We shall see how things trend even if this setup isn’t the best... Here’s some nice eye candy from the...
southernwx.com
 
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