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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

Myfrotho704_ said:
Exactly why I wasn’t even worried tbh, even in the longer range you could tell it was a favorable pattern for stuff to undercut the block so it would be transient, especially with the active pacific jet bringing in system after system, in Niño style
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Yep. If we had just a little additional westerly momentum in the southern branch of the jet from El Nino this is when it would come in handy s.t. these cut-offs would progress faster to the east & limit the time for warm-ups. Even still, this is pretty good
 
Definitely looks like a longwave pattern that will be conducive for long tracking Miller A's. My old man brain tells me that we need a trough in the east, ridge in the west, and cold air. Icing on the cake is the blocking to prevent cutting systems and to slow down the flow. Cautious optimism is warranted, but it's still a crap shoot on the eventual outcome and who might receive winter weather and to what extent.
 
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