Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

[Webberweather53]

Exactly why I wasn’t even worried tbh, even in the longer range you could tell it was a favorable pattern for stuff to undercut the block so it would be transient, especially with the active pacific jet bringing in system after system, in Niño style

Yep. If we had just a little additional westerly momentum in the southern branch of the jet from El Nino this is when it would come in handy s.t. these cut-offs would progress faster to the east & limit the time for warm-ups. Even still, this is pretty good

 

[Webberweather53]

Lol Bamwx playing themselves, here comes the main lobe of the SPV towards N America, (not that it matters tbh)

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Wow..... I haven’t seen stuff like this in a while

 

[Webberweather53]

Pacific jet starts backing off just a little bit in the 2nd week of January and here comes the +PNA.

Now we're talking

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Pacific jet starts backing off just a little bit in the 2nd week of January and here comes the +PNA.

Now we're talking

View attachment 61158

Geez any sort of +PNA with that look ?
What a pattern

 

[packfan98]

Definitely looks like a longwave pattern that will be conducive for long tracking Miller A's. My old man brain tells me that we need a trough in the east, ridge in the west, and cold air. Icing on the cake is the blocking to prevent cutting systems and to slow down the flow. Cautious optimism is warranted, but it's still a crap shoot on the eventual outcome and who might receive winter weather and to what extent.

 

[Webberweather53]

This is starting to evolve to that classic southern US overrunning look as the ridge builds towards Alaska. Just need a deeper trough over the Lakes to show up.

 

[Webberweather53]

Beautiful, cold air will be our achilles heel but we're right at our peak climo temp wise.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Goodness.

 

[Webberweather53]

Gonna try to hit the links tomorrow south of FAY, hoping this CAD breaks a little sooner than forecast...

Temps have been busting low thus far today vs NWS WFO forecasts.

 

[Ollie Williams]

Nice LR look! I would like some stronger high pressure though.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

this is just insane at this point lol, ridging into the NW territories with a -AO/-NAO

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I notice the euro/EPS seem to be much more bullish with the pattern and earlier then the GFS/GEFS

 

[NCSNOW]

39 degrees and very light precip just started

 

[ATLwxfan]

Beautiful, cold air will be our achilles heel but we're right at our peak climo temp wise.

View attachment 61162

The mountains should at least score.


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[ATLwxfan]

Why is the GEFS so out to lunch?


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[Myfrotho704_]

You could see cold air being thrown down from the arctic on the EPS

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Why is the GEFS so out to lunch?


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Because it’s sucks, we toss

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Oh. My.
that poleward ridge ? if that happens could air wouldnt be a problem

 

[Arcc]

this is just insane at this point lol, ridging into the NW territories with a -AO/-NAOView attachment 61170

Nice little PV lobe being pushed southward.