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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January
- Thread starter TheBatman
- Start date
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Something is gonna show up sooner rather than later for someone in the SE US or mid-Atlantic.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Here we go. Might be a mid-Atlantic weenie run here
Looks like it'll be an event for Mack, but the wave behind it looks interesting.
If we could strengthen and fix that stuff in the NE, then game on for even the first one
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Another Bamwx reverse jinx incoming!
iGRXY
Member
I got a feeling we are definitely going to score a couple storms within the next month. But they’ll probably sneak up in the day 5-7 range. We see massive changes on the models 2-4 days out so I doubt we will see something showing up beyond 7 days. Think if you live north of I20 you have a decent chance of seeing something. This is also peak climo as well.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Lol look at all these cyclonic wave breakers underneath the west-based -NAO. All the troughs are breaking, rapidly becoming negatively tilted and continuously reinforcing the pre-existing blocking ridge by fluxing tons of heat and moisture poleward into Canada.
adjustable 
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He's not really wrong. But most figured it would go to Europe. I'm just hoping there is enough cold over here left so we can benefit from the - NAO.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Stratospheric polar vortex location doesn't mean what you think it does in this setting esp when we have a displacement SSW that implies very tilted & baroclinic vortices
that retrogression tho In the pacific 
iGRXY
Member
To summarize: whatever BAMWX says, go with the opposite.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This is a sick plot from Zac Lawrence, shows the percentile of SSW that have -Uwind at each level in the stratosphere. Looks like half of major SSWs have -U getting down to ~25mb with most persisting on average 6-7 days at 10 hPa. That one event that got all the way down to the sfc looks like January 1977.
BAM's problem is they change on a dime.
Lol the GFS goes from -NAO to -EPO/+PNA 
In this particular case I wouldn't think you'd want it over here with the upcoming pattern unless you want extreme cold and suppression. I want a 30° big dog snowstorm. Lol