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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

Where do you guys check for 10mb zonal winds for GFS and ECMWF? Looks like Euro says we are set for a total reversal, putting us into Major SSW territory, but I am only ever able to check off of what others post here and on twitter.
 
Webberweather53 said:
No, we don't need to the "fix" the N Pacific.

When you have a strong west-based -NAO, there's almost always going to be a legitimate chance of a big KU nearly regardless of the N Pacific.

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It is a great pattern for the east. Just hope we don't watch the Mid Atlantic rack up 70 inches this year while we get 34 degree rain all winter.
 
FamouslyHot said:
Where do you guys check for 10mb zonal winds for GFS and ECMWF? Looks like Euro says we are set for a total reversal, putting us into Major SSW territory, but I am only ever able to check off of what others post here and on twitter.
Click to expand...

This is the only place I know of for the Euro.


GFS.

H. Attard

Hannah Attard is a graduate student of Atmospheric Science at the University at Albany
www.atmos.albany.edu
 
Things look awesome in the next couple of weeks. Hanging on to that -NAO will give us the best chance of some snow here. If we don't score out of this then we shouldn't even bother looking at what the pattern brings anymore.
 
Meanwhile, this is so predictable. The latest from WRAL on New Year's.

Big changes to the forecast for New Year's Day. Our cold front remains south keeping us in the chilly air. On TV this AM I'll show you how much cooler it will be.
 
Is this a pattern that brings snow to SC as well or is this for NC.
Brick Tamland said:
Things look awesome in the next couple of weeks. Hanging on to that -NAO will give us the best chance of some snow here. If we don't score out of this then we shouldn't even bother looking at what the pattern brings anymore.
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RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
It is a great pattern for the east. Just hope we don't watch the Mid Atlantic rack up 70 inches this year while we get 34 degree rain all winter.
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That was sort of going to be my question....I get the benefits of the pattern as it relates to big eastern snowstorms/KU events, but just because big snowstorms occur out of patterns like this, it doesn't mean the SE is necessarily favored. Does this type of configuration favor the SE or more the MA and NE? Kylo's composite map above looks ok for the SE. I still think we're going to have to find a way to inject some much colder air into the pattern. Hopefully, that will be available as we get into February. There seems to be some wide optimism for that.
 
Rain Cold said:
That was sort of going to be my question....I get the benefits of the pattern as it relates to big eastern snowstorms/KU events, but just because big snowstorms occur out of patterns like this, it doesn't mean the SE is necessarily favored. Does this type of configuration favor the SE or more the MA and NE? Kylo's composite map above looks ok for the SE. I still think we're going to have to find a way to inject some much colder air into the pattern. Hopefully, that will be available as we get into February. There seems to be some wide optimism for that.
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40312056cd2fa15885d2a91b1aa59bda.jpg

fdf4bfd45184ed089d0abe80bfe306e0.jpg

The WPO and EPO need to go negative.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Rain Cold said:
That was sort of going to be my question....I get the benefits of the pattern as it relates to big eastern snowstorms/KU events, but just because big snowstorms occur out of patterns like this, it doesn't mean the SE is necessarily favored. Does this type of configuration favor the SE or more the MA and NE? Kylo's composite map above looks ok for the SE. I still think we're going to have to find a way to inject some much colder air into the pattern. Hopefully, that will be available as we get into February. There seems to be some wide optimism for that.
Click to expand...
If the EPS/Control verifies, it’s a SE favored pattern. My take is that suppression really depends on how far south the ridging is into the Great Lakes. That allows it to pump high pressure into the ideal spot. However, if you get a look like the GEFS, then this is more of a NE/MA pattern.
53946951-9288-4E6F-AAD5-FE433862C49D.png
 
Ollie Williams said:
If the EPS/Control verifies, its a SE favored pattern. My take is that suppression really depends on how far south the ridging is into the Great Lakes. That allows it to pump high pressure into the ideal spot. However, if you get a look like the GEFS, then this is more of a NE/MA pattern.
View attachment 61092
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Thanks, makes sense. How does the EPS mean look in relation to the control? I don't like using the control for anything because it's just an ensemble member and likely to be wrong. But I would guess the EPS would be more favorable than the GEFS, and that would probably be more correct. I would also guess that we'll have to endure some MA action before we see the action.
 
Rain Cold said:
That was sort of going to be my question....I get the benefits of the pattern as it relates to big eastern snowstorms/KU events, but just because big snowstorms occur out of patterns like this, it doesn't mean the SE is necessarily favored. Does this type of configuration favor the SE or more the MA and NE? Kylo's composite map above looks ok for the SE. I still think we're going to have to find a way to inject some much colder air into the pattern. Hopefully, that will be available as we get into February. There seems to be some wide optimism for that.
Click to expand...
What is a “KU” event? I tried to Google it but every single link was to the Univ of Kansas. ?
 
Rain Cold said:
Thanks, makes sense. How does the EPS mean look in relation to the control? I don't like using the control for anything because it's just an ensemble member and likely to be wrong. But I would guess the EPS would be more favorable than the GEFS, and that would probably be more correct. I would also guess that we'll have to endure some MA action before we see the action.
Click to expand...
Pretty similar!
ACA20422-5D58-43B7-967F-51E4FE4D26AA.png
5DA27BFD-7717-49AE-B343-A3F4067BC3A5.png
 
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