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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

Jon said:
Sheesh...I mean someone is going to get under a sub 1000mb low while heights crash, whether that’s NE NC or DCA we don’t know yet, but it’s worth watching. We’re very much in the game, RDU north and NE. Can’t really discount anything at this juncture. But I admittedly live for setups like this that tend to over perform.
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Yeah it's worth watching but probably for the mid-Atlantic & NC mountains.
 
Deep-layer veering/warm advection with hints of a mid-level warm nose already even on the GFS. Not gonna cut it for most.

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This is why you want the upper low to track to your south and not over you:

Notice the warm advection drops off (but doesn't go away) as this southward trend occurs on the GFS. The GFS verbatim still looks too far north at 500 for folks in RDU but pretty good for VA border/NW piedmont. Honestly still not entirely sure if we hit everything perfectly that we're gonna get snow out of this setup, cold air is severely lacking to say the least and the strong veering/WAA-driven precip isn't exactly encouraging even with these favorable trends.

gfs_temp_adv_fgen_850_seus_fh108_trend.gif
 
metwannabe said:
I just want to know who engineered the @SD snow shield, it goes east and up I-95, seems intentional to me
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It always does that. It's exactly in that spot every time. It goes up just west of us and then comes back down just east of us. Every time. There must be magma under the ground. Or maybe it's just that this is hell. ?‍♂️
 
Rain Cold said:
It always does that. It's exactly in that spot every time. It goes up just west of us and then comes back down just east of us. Every time. There must be magma under the ground. Or maybe it's just that this is hell. ?‍♂️
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I-95 is it's own heat island?
 
I still say with the southward trend (as much blocking that is overtop should push the low even further south) the upstate is likely going to start getting into play on model runs soon. I only see this being able to trend further south oddly enough.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Plenty of time to go either way
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Yep by then we will know if these trends we are currently seeing on the models are a mirage or not. Even still we literally have to do everything perfectly in this setup and send up a hope/prayer to get legit accumulating snow out of this. It’s very frustrating imo because if we had even semi legit arctic air mass in the prior period or some snow to our north we’d be sitting damn good rn and be looking at a really big event with a look like this. We are lucky this is occurring near our peak climo temp wise because it would have basically no chance otherwise.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yep by then we will know if these trends we are currently seeing on the models are a mirage or not. Even still we literally have to do everything perfectly in this setup and send up a hope/prayer to get legit accumulating snow out of this. It’s very frustrating imo because if we had even semi legit arctic air mass in the prior period or some snow to our north we’d be sitting damn good rn and be looking at a really big event with a look like this. We are lucky this is occurring near our peak climo temp wise because it would have basically no chance otherwise.
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Agreed. If you're not in the mountains/foothills or KINT and northwest everything must go perfectly from a ptype/thermals perspective. Of course, if things go too perfectly -- ie the upper wave tracks much further south -- for the RDU area, the aforementioned areas could end up drier per the past 3 GFS runs.

gfs_apcpn_seus_fh138_trend.gif
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Oops, posted the wrong thing, here’s the v16 ! View attachment 62179
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