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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January
- Thread starter TheBatman
- Start date
Highest Euro mean yet! Assuming Eric is right, this will be an epic fail.
Looks like per H5 the ULL was a bit flatter/weaker, does that help ?
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Whoa I didn't realize that the Euro printed out what would be a weenie run for Louisiana today.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Needs to go a lot further south than that to put central nc legitimately in the game. Can’t deny the trend but you can’t deny how marginal this is and how the precip is being generated, mostly via warm advection. Can’t recall a single setup over the years where this wasn’t under forecast by NWP. Global models rarely if ever will properly handle it or are good to use as a gauge for the rain-snow line in these kinds of setups.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
A little but the upper low (in raw heights not anoms) needs to track on the 20 corridor to put us in the driver seat.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Furthermore, if the timing is literally any different than it is now, the boundary layer will be warmer than shown because as it stands the heaviest precip comes late in the overnight and early morning on the 9th.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
I may be wrong but aren’t the Euro and ICON the highest res models of the Global’s? Shouldn’t they pick up on these mesoscale features more so than others?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Can you take this crap to the whamby or banter thread? Thanks.
We’ve done well in marginal set ups this year as they usually preform a bit colder than we expect .. this one is marginal but it’s on the colder side I can see this being a boom bust scenario for sure .. I also can tell we’re going to be NAMD with this one and I’m trying to prepare
Additionally this really comes down to the synoptic scale track and I'd put more stock in the ensembles consistency at this range. If you actually look at the H5 vorticity field the euro has been pretty erratic the past few runs.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Basically all global suck in showing precip type evolution where warm advection is the primary forcing for ascent and ensembles aren’t much better because they’re even coarser than the op. I’ll be enthused when I see a bit more cold air injection initially, CAMs getting in range to resolve the warm nose and the upper low tracking further south because it’ll temper the warm advection and give us more wiggle room to work with
Yeah, but we don't do well with warm noses, which as Eric has been alluding to, the track screams it. He's just setting us up so we don't get dissapointed.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
We have yet to perform well in a single marginal setup this year, the only accumulating snow we’ve seen east of the mountains in nc was on Xmas morning and that was not a marginal setup by any means wrt cold air
Looks like roughly 70% of the ensembles have some snow around here. I like that but we are in the tenuous period of agreement where we know there are some changes to come
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yep lol just trying to temper expectations atm because experience in these setups says any snow and especially accumulation east of the mtns would be a win. Don’t get enthralled with model snow or p type maps esp this far out
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
8-9 times out of ten when you got warm advection like this showing up on the models, it’s gonna bust warmer/less snow/further NW.
Well I hope this is that 1/2 times that it goes well lol.. valid concerns though I definitely would not want a warm nose pulling up like it has in recent years events .. at least it’s trend-able at this point .. many models to go before were close to a final solution
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Good thing is we're seeing the legit threat inside 10 days for once. Looks like anytime from next Friday into next week is a real possibility for some snow.
And all global models with general agreement on something around 5 days out ... maybe thread worthy ??
But i dont know when It’s pull triggable
But i dont know when It’s pull triggable
snowlover91
Member
Key overall for this system is to get the ULL track further south. This would be what I would watch for on ensembles and OP runs to see which direction the track shifts. NAM will be key once in range for picking up on transition zones.
Yeah it may be pretty on models now but I’m just wanting a south trend, which may be just a hard as a significant northwest trend
It probably won't snow SE of 40/85 but the surface has dramatically improved past 48 hours. It at least makes it interesting.
12/9/18 event was marginal air mass and I thought there was no way it going to snow, so borderline. But, 9 times out of 10 we rain in setups like this.
12/9/18 event was marginal air mass and I thought there was no way it going to snow, so borderline. But, 9 times out of 10 we rain in setups like this.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Finally some real cold air. Love those positive height anomalies near and north of Alaska. That little tweak coupled with continued -NAO and PNA allows us to inject some legit cold into this pattern without having to sacrifice moisture.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah that was one of the few exceptions and then again we also had a big sfc high in Dec 2018 to transport what little cold air there was to the south, no evidence of anything like that here. For every Dec 2018 you get a Jan 2017 or Feb 2015
imo I do think as we get closer to mid-month, I do think it will trend colder.
850 low is over GSP and tracks down the NC/SC state line...which points to a I-40N more NC/VA border potential. For RDU folks we need this over Augusta/CAE/MYR. Not impossible but we are pushing the limits of how far south this can get.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Haven’t been paying any mind to model sfc temp anomalies. That pattern right there on the eps is a cold one literally every teleconnection favors cold here. Remember when it showed a torch for a crappier looking pattern this week that didn’t have high latitude blocking near Alaska?
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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I’ll never be the same after the Feb 2014 Euro model failboat! It still hurts to this day! Warm nose is real!
I wouldn't worry about surface temps on long range ensemble mean, I would look at 850's if you want some temps to look at.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This is arguably the best pattern you could possibly ask for around here for cold and snow.
Only tweak we need to see is just persistence because the longer this hangs around the colder the air masses will get, as more snow gets laid down and more opportunities for big arctic outbreaks are provided
Even the control highlights how cold could be pretty impressive in this sort of pattern 
I’m still waiting on Brad P. to post some of the ensembles and tell us how in the past those have yet to come to fruition. 
But in all seriousness, this is great looking pattern. I can’t imagine that he isn’t even getting a little bit excited.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
But in all seriousness, this is great looking pattern. I can’t imagine that he isn’t even getting a little bit excited.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Some encouraging news from Griteater over on American.
RAH acknowledges the possibility of a mix, but is not impressed with the chances:
Meanwhile, an upper low will deepen as it moves out of the Rockies
and into the southern Plains. There is fairly good agreement among
the major deterministic guidance with respect to moisture transport
into the area late Thursday into Friday, with rain gradually
overspreading the area early Friday morning. However, there are
differences with how quickly the upper low deepens offshore and
moves out of the area. GFS takes the low out of the area fairly
quickly with strong post-frontal drying from west to east Friday
night. 03.00Z ECMWF and various 03.00Z EC ENS members appear to be
signaling another upper trough moving in from the Great Lakes with a
reinforcing shot of cold air arriving coincident with the departure
of the low. This solution, if it pans out, could result in a brief
mix of rain and snow on the back end of the precip shield as it
moves out of the area early Saturday morning, but forecast
confidence in this specific solution is quite low at this lead time.
03.12Z deterministic ECMWF has arrived somewhat more in line with
the 03.12Z GFS/GEFS, noticeably absent in this latest run is the
Great Lakes trough and associated cold air. GFS/GEFS and its faster
evolution of the system naturally keeps precip in the form of liquid
vs snow. There isn`t an abundance of cold air upstream to be
imported into the area in the first place, that and the trajectory
of the aforementioned Great Lakes low would result in downslope flow
across the area which is far from favorable for a rain/snow mix. For
now I am keeping the forecast all liquid until a better model
consensus can be achieved. NBM is closely aligned with GFS timing
and temps and it was a reasonable starting point for this event.
Regardless, temperatures during the latter part of the week into the
weekend will be below normal given cloud cover and precip with highs
in the low/mid 40s, lows within a few degrees of freezing.
Conditions should dry out for the upcoming weekend as the low
departs the area.
Meanwhile, an upper low will deepen as it moves out of the Rockies
and into the southern Plains. There is fairly good agreement among
the major deterministic guidance with respect to moisture transport
into the area late Thursday into Friday, with rain gradually
overspreading the area early Friday morning. However, there are
differences with how quickly the upper low deepens offshore and
moves out of the area. GFS takes the low out of the area fairly
quickly with strong post-frontal drying from west to east Friday
night. 03.00Z ECMWF and various 03.00Z EC ENS members appear to be
signaling another upper trough moving in from the Great Lakes with a
reinforcing shot of cold air arriving coincident with the departure
of the low. This solution, if it pans out, could result in a brief
mix of rain and snow on the back end of the precip shield as it
moves out of the area early Saturday morning, but forecast
confidence in this specific solution is quite low at this lead time.
03.12Z deterministic ECMWF has arrived somewhat more in line with
the 03.12Z GFS/GEFS, noticeably absent in this latest run is the
Great Lakes trough and associated cold air. GFS/GEFS and its faster
evolution of the system naturally keeps precip in the form of liquid
vs snow. There isn`t an abundance of cold air upstream to be
imported into the area in the first place, that and the trajectory
of the aforementioned Great Lakes low would result in downslope flow
across the area which is far from favorable for a rain/snow mix. For
now I am keeping the forecast all liquid until a better model
consensus can be achieved. NBM is closely aligned with GFS timing
and temps and it was a reasonable starting point for this event.
Regardless, temperatures during the latter part of the week into the
weekend will be below normal given cloud cover and precip with highs
in the low/mid 40s, lows within a few degrees of freezing.
Conditions should dry out for the upcoming weekend as the low
departs the area.
I wonder how long we could Hold onto this pattern, would think the blocking would last for a month or more perhaps
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Does Brad P work on the side for RAH? Asking for a friend
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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The more anomalous the pattern, the quicker it should breakdown? Kind of like a Cat 5 hurricane, hard to keep it going for a long time , with that intensity? ?