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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

Rain Cold said:
Can someone help me out here? I'm not as well-versed on SSWEs and the technical evolution of tropospheric patterns thereafter, except to say that blocking tends to be favored.

I'm definitely all for blocking and have made that point for years. But how can we tell if a particular SSWE (this upcoming one, for example) allows for a distribution of cold air toward our side of the globe? It seems like most of the SSW episodes in recent years have displace the tPV into Russia.

Now, we see the effect of the SWWE with a block building in, which is nice, but so far, we're not seeing a reshuffling of the Pacific to allow for anything other than seasonably cool temps.

I do get the excitement over record high pressures, record low pressures, record blocking anomalies, etc. But if they're not going to lead to anything more than cool rainstorms, like what we've seen a lot of so far, that doesn't seem worth the excitement.

Not trying to be a Debbie Downer, but just trying to understand what to watch for a little better. Because the models are showing a lot of apparently exciting stuff, with the exception of cold and patterns supportive of widespread winter storms.
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Excellent question.
 
Webberweather53 said:
This winter so far and what's forthcoming is extremely Nino-esque. Fab feb usually doesn't apply in La Ninas but I think this year is going to break that mold much like how it's been anything but a NINA sensible wx wise in N America.
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Well that’s just fine with me... we’ve certainly had some Ninos lately that acted like Ninas.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Sure do love me some lightning shots in early January View attachment 60978
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Usually those yellows and red streaks on a global model mean a CP scheme is kicking into gear, but I don't think that would be convective in nature, actually. Looks very much like an atmospheric river tapping into moisture stretching all the way back to the E-Pac.
1609290764899.png

The really prolific atmospheric rivers occur over in the Pacific (the "Pineapple Express"), but we get versions with shorter fetches here that can result in notable floods (the Joaquin flooding is a really extreme example that was enhanced by the presence of the hurricane, but fundamentally the pivoting band of precip over SC was more atmospheric river than TC). Those Joaquin rains were heavy but not severe. The GFS, which shows a more suppressed/SE solution vs. the ICON (lol), has practically no CAPE even when it gives coastal GA and SC 2-4":
ar_cape.gif
ar_total.png
Worth watching these totals as they're liable to trend further NW and maybe more intense.
 
RVD said:
Usually those yellows and red streaks on a global model mean a CP scheme is kicking into gear, but I don't think that would be convective in nature, actually. Looks very much like an atmospheric river tapping into moisture stretching all the way back to the E-Pac.
View attachment 60987

The really prolific atmospheric rivers occur over in the Pacific (the "Pineapple Express"), but we get versions with shorter fetches here that can result in notable floods (the Joaquin flooding is a really extreme example that was enhanced by the presence of the hurricane, but fundamentally the pivoting band of precip over SC was more atmospheric river than TC). Those Joaquin rains were heavy but not severe. The GFS, which shows a more suppressed/SE solution vs. the ICON (lol), has practically no CAPE even when it gives coastal GA and SC 2-4":
View attachment 60989
View attachment 60990
Worth watching these totals as they're liable to trend further NW and maybe more intense.
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-Yep, looking at soundings/the quality of the moisture
Straight up tropical
got 2 inch PWATs hanging out to our south, could we break more PWAT records like how we did in November if it does trend NW? Lol 07F52154-B585-4FB6-A1CA-20304A0D73EE.pngFDCA6382-3725-4911-8072-152E947B96FE.pngEA0379BA-2434-4C3E-BD0D-8F2C215A196A.png7305AE8C-0E07-4FD1-B1D4-403B9FDE0077.png
 
See, I can manage a day or two way above average temp wise if we get something exciting to track. Love severe weather and I love elevated storms. That thunder rolls for what seems like forever. As long as we get our "monster" as far as winter wx goes, I am okay with this weekend's system, but we have to produce. I can't another month of, "well maybe 2 weeks from now." ?
 
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