• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

Storm5 said:
2e5cc354bdc8c91a889e308eb093ce4e.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Looks like a 5 year old spilled vorticity everywhere on that map
 
sdm47 said:
View attachment 62074
Click to expand...
This is a fantastic trend, which as others (@Myfrotho704_) are saying is related to the significant blocking that we actually have on our side, and if we can keep this up on all model guidance, then northern areas of the board might just eek this one out. But the GFSv16 was more amped at h850 than the GFSv15 (which like I outlined is a suspected improvement of the model over the older version) and so I'm not willing to jump on board just yet.

v16 at the same time as you showed:
1609691935313.png

Hour 114 actually demonstrates the differences between the two models very well. The GFSv16 is colder with the airmasses overall, but because its 850 circulation is stronger and further north, it has more of a warm nose and takes a bit longer to transfer to the coast (thus favoring the MA). Both of these differences play in the v16's favor, per the official model evaluation.
T850_comp.gif
 
KyloG said:
GEFS day 4 trend.

View attachment 62069
Click to expand...
Nice post. Just wondering how much further SE we can get this to trend. Looks like the typical Climo Miller A with an RDU and SE cold rain special. Warm nose generally ruins it for us. Folks in the NW half of NC should be getting really excited about it though.
 
GaWx said:
My interest in the period just after New Year's isn't just because the EPS and GEFS show solid BN and the 18Z GEFS shows it to be near to wetter than normal. It is also because of the GEFS' prediction for the PNA (~+1+), AO (~-2) and NAO (~-1). I realize that the GEFS has a bit of a -AO and -NAO bias that far out. But let's say there were to be no bias this time and the PNA/AO/NAO were to be +1+/-2-/-1-. If so, it would be the first single day with that combo since way back on 2/7/10. Going back to 1/1/2000, only these days meet these criteria:

- 2/7/10
- 1/6-8/10
- 12/8/02

What do these rare 3 periods have in common in the SE? They were all cold to very cold with significant wintry precip either during or within a few days of them in a good portion of the SE.

Also, helping is that the MJO looks to stay weak/inside circle. The best location would be inside (or just outside) left circle but inside has overall been colder than outside in January. So, I consider the MJO to be favorable for cold potential. Also, one thing to note about the 6 major ATL ZR's since 1978: they've all been when the MJO was inside the circle!
Click to expand...

Bump. Well, how about the above GEFS indices prog from 12 days ago!? For 1/6-7+, it looks like we’re likely headed for the very rare trifecta of PNA of +1+, NAO of -1-, and AO of -2- after all! (Actually, even better, the AO looks to be sub -3!)

As stated in the Dec 22 post, this very rare combo hasn’t occurred since way back on 2/7/10 and has occurred during only that and two other periods since 1/1/2000: 1/6-8/10, and 12/8/02! As stated above:

“What do these rare 3 periods have in common in the SE? They were all cold to very cold with significant wintry precip either during or within a few days of them in a good portion of the SE.”

It looks like at least the “significant wintry precip either during or within a few days of them in a good portion of the SE” part of this has a good chance to verify with the upper low snow threat for Jan 7-8! How about that?!
 
Last edited:
mrdaddyman said:
Nice post. Just wondering how much further SE we can get this to trend. Looks like the typical Climo Miller A with an RDU and SE cold rain special. Warm nose generally ruins it for us. Folks in the NW half of NC should be getting really excited about it though.
Click to expand...
I agree with this, NW Piedmont definitely favored, but we have a shot. It is subtle, but the upper level low on the GFS makes a slight curve NE once it crosses the Carolinas. If we can get that to head just due east we will also be in business. We need just a little more NE confluence to get that done.
 
mrdaddyman said:
Nice post. Just wondering how much further SE we can get this to trend. Looks like the typical Climo Miller A with an RDU and SE cold rain special. Warm nose generally ruins it for us. Folks in the NW half of NC should be getting really excited about it though.
Click to expand...

We are pushing how far south this can get...IMO. By day 2-3 the GEFS/EPS both agree that the upper low being just north of the panhandle. We have a stout block and 50/50 to push this south and by day 4-5 the GEFS/EPS are both in great agreement of the upper low over BMX. For Raleigh I would like this to exit between MYR ans SAV and right now it's between MYR and ILM. It's actually impressive how close the EPS/GEFS are now.

I am hoping this can drop down to just south of the panhandle, that would help the folks SE of I-40/85.

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-conus-z500_anom-9912800.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-conus-z500_anom-0085600.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-conus-z500_anom-0150400.png
 
KyloG said:
We are pushing how far south this can get...IMO. By day 2-3 the GEFS/EPS both agree that the upper low being just north of the panhandle. We have a stout block and 50/50 to push this south and by day 4-5 the GEFS/EPS are both in great agreement of the upper low over BMX. For Raleigh I would like this to exit between MYR ans SAV and right now it's between MYR and ILM. It's actually impressive how close the EPS/GEFS are now.

I am hoping this can drop down to just south of the panhandle, that would help the folks SE of I-40/85.

View attachment 62093View attachment 62092View attachment 62094
Click to expand...
The face we’ve gotten this much done with the first wave on modeling is amazing
 
Jon said:
I am but alas I’m on Twitter mostly. If you weren’t on board originally than today’s trends should get about everyone on. Until it starts trending the opposite direction, it’s a valid threat IMO. Need some consistency, but the eps mean is screaming at us...
Click to expand...

EPS mean is screaming at folks in the mid-atlantic imo. This looks like cold rain for much of NC outside the mtns with a few last second NW tweaks to the frontogenetically-induced band of snow in the wrap around CCB. Maybe we get some flurries but that would be a win in this setup
 
Webberweather53 said:
EPS mean is screaming at folks in the mid-atlantic imo. This looks like cold rain for much of NC outside the mtns with a few last second NW tweaks to the frontogenetically-induced band of snow in the wrap around CCB. Maybe we get some flurries but that would be a win in this setup
Click to expand...

Yeah, said this earlier, this is giving me flashbacks to Feb 2010. 2/6/10 analog for this potential but maybe further south. I do think 77 corridor in NC could see accumulating snowfall...north of I-40.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top