Cold? Hopefully?
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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January
- Thread starter TheBatman
- Start date
Cold? Hopefully?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Cold remains to be seen but, Miller A cyclones incoming
Canonical nina pattern-exe has stopped working
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
If this verifies, prepare for an all you can eat buffet of -AO/-NAO for the rest of this winter.
I haven’t followed the PV at 10mb for long(a few years) and don’t know much about it or SSW events, but that may be the most smashed PV at that level I’ve seen modeled in my short time.
If we sniff even a transient +PNA things get even more interesting real quick
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
WTF
Some EPS members take our low over the N Pacific to 900mb.
I'm speechless lol
Some EPS members take our low over the N Pacific to 900mb.
I'm speechless lol
ATLwxfan
Member
At least we will get to see the MA and NE score repeatedly after our severe weather. Who among us doesn’t want to see that? 
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
So we can’t sniff a sub-900mb hurricane in the Atlantic and the Pacific pretty much flips us a bird and says “watch this”. Bout right....
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
I hope so. If we can hang on to a -NAO this long and not get anything out of it then we just need to face the facts that what used to give us snow just doesn't work the same way anymore.
Yeah I’m optimistic to not see a North Pacific block with a death ridge centered over us for once
Can someone help me out here? I'm not as well-versed on SSWEs and the technical evolution of tropospheric patterns thereafter, except to say that blocking tends to be favored.
I'm definitely all for blocking and have made that point for years. But how can we tell if a particular SSWE (this upcoming one, for example) allows for a distribution of cold air toward our side of the globe? It seems like most of the SSW episodes in recent years have displace the tPV into Russia.
Now, we see the effect of the SWWE with a block building in, which is nice, but so far, we're not seeing a reshuffling of the Pacific to allow for anything other than seasonably cool temps.
I do get the excitement over record high pressures, record low pressures, record blocking anomalies, etc. But if they're not going to lead to anything more than cool rainstorms, like what we've seen a lot of so far, that doesn't seem worth the excitement.
Not trying to be a Debbie Downer, but just trying to understand what to watch for a little better. Because the models are showing a lot of apparently exciting stuff, with the exception of cold and patterns supportive of widespread winter storms.
I'm definitely all for blocking and have made that point for years. But how can we tell if a particular SSWE (this upcoming one, for example) allows for a distribution of cold air toward our side of the globe? It seems like most of the SSW episodes in recent years have displace the tPV into Russia.
Now, we see the effect of the SWWE with a block building in, which is nice, but so far, we're not seeing a reshuffling of the Pacific to allow for anything other than seasonably cool temps.
I do get the excitement over record high pressures, record low pressures, record blocking anomalies, etc. But if they're not going to lead to anything more than cool rainstorms, like what we've seen a lot of so far, that doesn't seem worth the excitement.
Not trying to be a Debbie Downer, but just trying to understand what to watch for a little better. Because the models are showing a lot of apparently exciting stuff, with the exception of cold and patterns supportive of widespread winter storms.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I suspect the GEFS is out to lunch here
I missed seeing this sort of stuff with a -NAO 
EPS/control is basically a very suppressed storm track under that block, wow
