These little differences in the track mean big here 
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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January
- Thread starter TheBatman
- Start date
A little bit farther north then 12z so far 
Interestingly it’s decently colder vs the 12z at H85
Interestingly it’s decently colder vs the 12z at H85
Oop northern stream present near by 
Could see a phase here
damn might be a little tooooo late 
Snowstorm for ENC 
Changeover:
Imagine if we can slow our southern wave a little bit more to allow a slightly quicker phase instead of a more late one, that’s a big dog for much of NC
Still going
Clem282340
Member
What about upstate
Wow that’s beautiful
Shaggy
Member
Man these are brutal runs for me. The para I was on the eastern cutoff and the euro I'm on the sw cutoff.......looks good though and something to track at least.
I honestly thought there would be more with a phase but total amounts 
Shift this west a little bit and you might have something really good 
Euro already looking interesting for the next system, some N/S energy is beginning to strengthen/deepen around the GL
Euro already looking interesting for the next system, some N/S energy is beginning to strengthen/deepen around the GL
Ehh
Lol seems like when we have the NS energy around the right spot, our wave wants to shear out
Lol seems like when we have the NS energy around the right spot, our wave wants to shear out
That looks fine this far out. Pretty good look. IMO. Suppressed look with high pressure to the north. Looks like a nice Miller A in the works.
Also have a better airmass to the north to work with. 
definitely more intrigued by this one now 
The GFS has some snow mixing in at day 10.
Euro went for another one
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This block won’t retrograde into the conus, strong pacific jet undercutting the block, lateral mixing by planetary waves and more favorable forcing for blocking in the arctic vs far N Atlantic will shift the epicenter further N late in the month.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Honestly nobody in NC outside the mountains has a legit chance to see accumulating snow out of this at the moment. Just isn’t enough cold air.Eric’s just salty Fayetteville doesn’t have a chance.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Bowling ball? Spare me
Day 7-10 are split on how well this performs...
Gutter ball, gutters running
Oh dang 
No wonder it’s so bullish, imagine if this was a colder setup with slightly cooler surface temps, would literally be money 
But there’s no legit chance of this being good for anyone outside of the mountains ... I don’t believe so euro has been on this ... the air is barely not cold enough any trend just a bit colder as the euro just did would mean big things for anyone in NC .. keep an eye on this one it’s becoming thread worthy quickly
It still kind of bothers me that with this look, the mean looks relatively crappy after out ULL potential. I know I shouldn’t look too much into that stuff, but I find it surprising. I guess that’s because it’s too warm. From what Webber’s been saying, I’m not buying that yet.
With the amount of blocking I wouldn’t worry yet, something could easily sneak into the 50/50 region/NE and serve as confluence under the block, For example the euro, Ensemble mean won’t show that well atm
I read a study and I confirmed the conclusions with my own counting of the days in winter in each phase that the % of winter days of the MJO being in the Maritime phases has increased markedly during the last 10 years or so largely due to warmer Maritime Continent waters. That in addition to GW is very likely a big contributor to our warmer winters.
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Based on extensive analysis of several decades of KATL temp data, I found that during January that inside the COD has averaged markedly colder than outside. The January results are actually here in the blog:
Link:
SE US daily winter temperature anomaly analysis by MJO phase: inside the left side of circle coldest | SouthernWX
Likely related to this, ALL major ATL icestorms since the monthly MJO charts started occurred when it was inside the circle! However, the size of the sample being pretty small is very likely skewing the true underlying probability of major ATL ZR inside vs outside COD a pretty good amount.
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I need to learn more about the MJO... are there outlier cases of Eastern US cold that don't fall in the cold phases?
There are a decent number of outliers going both ways as the MJO is but one of several major impacting factors. The best chance to find cold outside of the cold phases in January (with that chance highest inside left side of circle) is inside the right half of the circle as opposed to outside of the circle in the right side
EastAtlwx
Meteorologist
Okay so if I’m reading this correct for January (cold -> warm): 1. Inside left 2. Cold phases 3. Inside right
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More or less although the inside right actually averaged out not too much different from well outside in the cold phases with near normal.
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