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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

For what it’s worth, the NAM showing a more stout wedge on NYD. If we can stay in the 50’s that’s a win. The trend is your friend.


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ajr said:
From reading the abstract, could this be a situation where longer-term forecasts won't be as accurate for certain models (GFS, CFS) if they aren't capturing the stratosphere well? So are we going to be in a "holding pattern" longer-term until the stratosphere is clarified?
Click to expand...

Yes exactly. We may be in a holding pattern until the SSWE is already ongoing but we probably don't have to wait very long for that to occur.
 
Still requires patience, but you can see the GEFS forecast trend more to arctic high/Alaskan ridging regimes toward the end of January which both favor our area:

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1609253761307.png
 
Here’s a different and very detailed perspective from some pro mets:


“Warm Pattern Despite Weakened Polar Vortex

A stratospheric warming event is projected in the days ahead, and this has led to questions on whether the pattern could turn colder as a result. The argument is related to an associated weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex (SPV), which maintains the already established and historically cold correlating –AO. Despite this, GWHDDs over the next 15 days are forecast to rank in the top-10 warmest for the period dating back to 1950, and the models persist the warmer than normal pattern into the 16-20 Day period. ‘Evaluating the Joint Influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the Stratospheric Polar Vortex on Weather Patterns in the Northern Hemisphere’ (Green & Furtado, 2019) is the title of the paper that helps describe the pattern. The paper relates the influence of tropical circulations with that in the stratosphere. The study found that various MJO phases, dependent on the strength of the SPV, yield unique jet stream and temperature patterns that differ from single-mode composites (i.e. simply a composite of the MJO in a select phase). The report states: ‘MJO Phases 2 and 3 events influence the resulting tropospheric circulation via primarily a tropospheric pathway. By contrast, MJO phases 7 and 8 events modify both the tropospheric and stratospheric circulation with potential feedbacks on the tropospheric circulation at longer lags.’ For reference, the troposphere is the level of the atmosphere in which weather happens, while the stratosphere is located higher in the atmosphere. Heat and momentum can be transferred between these levels, ultimately affecting the pattern. As for the forecast, the MJO is an incoherent signal with a pair of low frequency ‘standing waves’ over the Indian Ocean/Indonesia and the Atlantic. Green & Furtado (2019) would suggest a colder pattern in the Eastern Two-Thirds (e.g. composite (a)). However, a deeper dive into the data shows the pattern is behaving as if the MJO is in phases 2-3, which is to some degree influenced by La Niña (i.e. easterly trades projected by the CFS model over the tropical Pacific). This setup is most represented by the patterns spatially described within the (d) composites. Differentially, the ongoing setup starts out with a stronger Pacific jet stream, aiding in the warmer air flow of the forecast. -BH/AM”

This from Maxar this morning
 
GaWx said:
Here’s a different and very detailed perspective from some pro mets:


“Warm Pattern Despite Weakened Polar Vortex

A stratospheric warming event is projected in the days ahead, and this has led to questions on whether the pattern could turn colder as a result. The argument is related to an associated weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex (SPV), which maintains the already established and historically cold correlating –AO. Despite this, GWHDDs over the next 15 days are forecast to rank in the top-10 warmest for the period dating back to 1950, and the models persist the warmer than normal pattern into the 16-20 Day period. ‘Evaluating the Joint Influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the Stratospheric Polar Vortex on Weather Patterns in the Northern Hemisphere’ (Green & Furtado, 2019) is the title of the paper that helps describe the pattern. The paper relates the influence of tropical circulations with that in the stratosphere. The study found that various MJO phases, dependent on the strength of the SPV, yield unique jet stream and temperature patterns that differ from single-mode composites (i.e. simply a composite of the MJO in a select phase). The report states: ‘MJO Phases 2 and 3 events influence the resulting tropospheric circulation via primarily a tropospheric pathway. By contrast, MJO phases 7 and 8 events modify both the tropospheric and stratospheric circulation with potential feedbacks on the tropospheric circulation at longer lags.’ For reference, the troposphere is the level of the atmosphere in which weather happens, while the stratosphere is located higher in the atmosphere. Heat and momentum can be transferred between these levels, ultimately affecting the pattern. As for the forecast, the MJO is an incoherent signal with a pair of low frequency ‘standing waves’ over the Indian Ocean/Indonesia and the Atlantic. Green & Furtado (2019) would suggest a colder pattern in the Eastern Two-Thirds (e.g. composite (a)). However, a deeper dive into the data shows the pattern is behaving as if the MJO is in phases 2-3, which is to some degree influenced by La Niña (i.e. easterly trades projected by the CFS model over the tropical Pacific). This setup is most represented by the patterns spatially described within the (d) composites. Differentially, the ongoing setup starts out with a stronger Pacific jet stream, aiding in the warmer air flow of the forecast. -BH/AM”

This from Maxar this morning
Click to expand...
My take after reading that mumbo jumbo - We're screwed
 
GaWx said:
Here’s a different and very detailed perspective from some pro mets:


“Warm Pattern Despite Weakened Polar Vortex

A stratospheric warming event is projected in the days ahead, and this has led to questions on whether the pattern could turn colder as a result. The argument is related to an associated weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex (SPV), which maintains the already established and historically cold correlating –AO. Despite this, GWHDDs over the next 15 days are forecast to rank in the top-10 warmest for the period dating back to 1950, and the models persist the warmer than normal pattern into the 16-20 Day period. ‘Evaluating the Joint Influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the Stratospheric Polar Vortex on Weather Patterns in the Northern Hemisphere’ (Green & Furtado, 2019) is the title of the paper that helps describe the pattern. The paper relates the influence of tropical circulations with that in the stratosphere. The study found that various MJO phases, dependent on the strength of the SPV, yield unique jet stream and temperature patterns that differ from single-mode composites (i.e. simply a composite of the MJO in a select phase). The report states: ‘MJO Phases 2 and 3 events influence the resulting tropospheric circulation via primarily a tropospheric pathway. By contrast, MJO phases 7 and 8 events modify both the tropospheric and stratospheric circulation with potential feedbacks on the tropospheric circulation at longer lags.’ For reference, the troposphere is the level of the atmosphere in which weather happens, while the stratosphere is located higher in the atmosphere. Heat and momentum can be transferred between these levels, ultimately affecting the pattern. As for the forecast, the MJO is an incoherent signal with a pair of low frequency ‘standing waves’ over the Indian Ocean/Indonesia and the Atlantic. Green & Furtado (2019) would suggest a colder pattern in the Eastern Two-Thirds (e.g. composite (a)). However, a deeper dive into the data shows the pattern is behaving as if the MJO is in phases 2-3, which is to some degree influenced by La Niña (i.e. easterly trades projected by the CFS model over the tropical Pacific). This setup is most represented by the patterns spatially described within the (d) composites. Differentially, the ongoing setup starts out with a stronger Pacific jet stream, aiding in the warmer air flow of the forecast. -BH/AM”

This from Maxar this morning
Click to expand...
What did Maxar say about the missed above normal call for December? Does the Pacific forecast do well long range?
 
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