-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January
- Thread starter TheBatman
- Start date
------------. 
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Man surface temps always an issue
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Jessy89
Member
Probably not but close
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Man we should be excited with a low in that spot in the middle of January. Smh
Jessy89
Member
Hr 216 snow in ne Georgia
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
So close... I will take this look 8-9 days... I like it..
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
Jessy89
Member
That’s a good look.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
If nothing else, the GFS has two good snow storms for the NC mountains in the next 10 days.
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
In the heart of January with that low track it should be a freaking winter storm! But like @DarkKnight said it's a good look for 8-9 days out
That’s a good look.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Jessy89
Member
This has potential to trend colder and be a winter storm. Or it could go poof
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
It may still be. The GFS is an absolute mess at 850mb with the surface low redeveloping. The 850mb low is so weak and messy, there isn’t CAA even north of it. Definitely a period to watch with how the models are trending colder with the evolution of the systems.
Here’s some better maps, weird hybrid miller B/A setup 
Stronger trough digging into the upper midwest behind it. Not an ideal setup unless you have enough established cold ahead of the system
SnowNiner
Member
Without a nice strong 50/50 low in this "-nao" pattern to funnel in a wedge, confluence, and cold air, no storm is going to have a chance for a winter storm east of the mountains IMO. I won't say a nice block pattern sucks, but it's missing a key ingredient I think.
If that's not there in this pattern, we punt till after the 15th and hope Eric is right about the polar tap of the -epo.
My opinion so far this year is reenforced, we need the -epo with a +PNA. Need Pacific tap of cold for a general cold pattern in the southeast. Then let's take our chances with timing.
If that's not there in this pattern, we punt till after the 15th and hope Eric is right about the polar tap of the -epo.
My opinion so far this year is reenforced, we need the -epo with a +PNA. Need Pacific tap of cold for a general cold pattern in the southeast. Then let's take our chances with timing.
ATLwxfan
Member
Mind boggling. Low placement is great. Well on the bright the northwest trend won’t sting quite as bad.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
To calm down the freakout, canceling and grieving over the models, here was the sunset at my place
Maybe this is a good sign......
Maybe this is a good sign......
Used to be an old adage Cuba was a good track at this range, I’d be a little worried if I was in DC/BWI proper, still early though. Que the first storm needs to get out of the way for our chance.
V16 is a NE NC special 
Textbook low placement. Marginal temps as expected.
That’s a good look.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Of course when we get a legit arctic dump, we know where this is headed.... that NPAC/-EPO block = -PNA = southeast ridge
As I feared with that -EPO, everything is dumped out west 
Lol ridge from the west coast to Russia 
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
But middle January is going to produce and be a favorable pattern for winter weather in the south right?? ??
Seems like the end of every gfs run recently has been retrograde to a SER
It’s the long range GFS, it’s very unlikely
Even though I said it’s unlikely above, honestly it wouldn’t shock me if we got a -EPO driven cold outbreak after the marginal -NAO stuff then a Southeast ridge, I was thinking at one point we’d keep the Blocking but per HM, if we switch to maritime forcing, and get that NPAC jet extension/dump out west, down goes February, I think this time is has more legs because the GEFS sorta hints at -EPO which is all or nothing
And oh yeah ninas in feb normally suck
NoSnowATL
Member
Great location. Dang
That’s a good look.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Let's give the GFS the benefit of the doubt and stop right here. This will do nicely.
Dewpoint Dan
Member
Ninas in Feb usually suck but this Nina isn't exactly behaving like a typical Nina is it ?
Maritime forcing coupled with a Nina is a recipe for disaster in February, there’s no question about that
Jessy89
Member
I can’t wait to see what cmc does with this tonight. And the euro the track is near perfect maybe we trend colder
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
We probably get there eventually but the gfs/gefs are probably too fast. What I find interesting about that gfs run is the fact it starts getting that big vortex near the lakes then it starts digging the western trough. Obviously that's more upstream driven than downstream but you can't help but wonder if the gfs is erroring there. Maybe the model feels the block out front and instead of shearing the energy under the block its consolidating and digging? Idk maybe just a coincidence in the timing