Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

[EV/WS]

I'd be ok with a brief change over for an hour. I can count on 3 fingers the number of snowfalls I've seen since April 2018

Raleigh agrees...

"Thus for now keep precipitation of the liquid
variety, but a changeover to frozen at the end of the event on
Friday night and Saturday morning is possible across the northern
Piedmont as cooler air advects in behind the system."

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[Myfrotho704_]

------------.

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

------------. View attachment 61849View attachment 61850View attachment 61851

Man surface temps always an issue

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

Is this a good look?

 

[Jessy89]

Is this a good look?

I think so yes


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Is this a good look?

Probably not but close

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

Probably not but close View attachment 61853

Man we should be excited with a low in that spot in the middle of January. Smh

 

[Jessy89]

Hr 216 snow in ne Georgia


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[TheBatman]

So close... I will take this look 8-9 days... I like it..

 

[Deleted member 1449]

 

[Jessy89]

That’s a good look.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Deleted member 1449]

If nothing else, the GFS has two good snow storms for the NC mountains in the next 10 days.

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

That’s a good look.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

In the heart of January with that low track it should be a freaking winter storm! But like @DarkKnight said it's a good look for 8-9 days out

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[Jessy89]

In the heart of January with that low track it should be a freaking winter storm! But like @DarkKnight said it's a good look for 8-9 days out

This has potential to trend colder and be a winter storm. Or it could go poof


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Arcc]

Man we should be excited with a low in that spot in the middle of January. Smh

It may still be. The GFS is an absolute mess at 850mb with the surface low redeveloping. The 850mb low is so weak and messy, there isn’t CAA even north of it. Definitely a period to watch with how the models are trending colder with the evolution of the systems.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Here’s some better maps, weird hybrid miller B/A setup

 

[SD]

Here’s some better maps, weird hybrid miller B/A setup View attachment 61856View attachment 61857View attachment 61858View attachment 61859View attachment 61860

Stronger trough digging into the upper midwest behind it. Not an ideal setup unless you have enough established cold ahead of the system

 

[SnowNiner]

Without a nice strong 50/50 low in this "-nao" pattern to funnel in a wedge, confluence, and cold air, no storm is going to have a chance for a winter storm east of the mountains IMO. I won't say a nice block pattern sucks, but it's missing a key ingredient I think.

If that's not there in this pattern, we punt till after the 15th and hope Eric is right about the polar tap of the -epo.

My opinion so far this year is reenforced, we need the -epo with a +PNA. Need Pacific tap of cold for a general cold pattern in the southeast. Then let's take our chances with timing.