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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I realize this is the long range GFS and I’m mainly passing the time right now posting on here, BUT I will say this is a totally hopeless look here. Totally hopeless.
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Consistent with Judah’s blog. You really get the feeling that January is a total waste. Then the topics will waffle from “needing pre-emergent” to “sun angle” and “2 or 3 week window to score before spring”


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I really don’t understand all this freaking out about January. I would toss the first 10 days or so, but we still have a raging -NAO with no end in sight, a never ending supply of +EAMT, and a better (not beautiful), Pacific to give us some transient +PNA at times, which really would have potential to produce a storm. Heck, we even have a very classic and extreme signal for a SSWE! So beyond that, I’m incredibly excited!
 
Ollie Williams said:
I really don’t understand all this freaking out about January. I would toss the first 10 days or so, but we still have a raging -NAO with no end in sight, a never ending supply of +EAMT, and a better (not beautiful), Pacific to give us some transient +PNA at times, which really would have potential to produce a storm. Heck, we even have a very classic and extreme signal for a SSWE! So beyond that, I’m incredibly excited!
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Although that continued deepening of Full Eastern North American Continental warmth has to be a bit concerning. Plus the Pacific is wave after wave after wave. Alaska never gets too warm. To me it's almost like the PV displacement is shoving into Eurasia, not N. America. Time will tell...
 
KyloG said:
Week 3 on the EPS and GEFS look. Week 4 is more of the same so back half of January is modeled to be good.

Sorry if this was posted above, but just waking up and taking a look.

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Yeah imo our best chance to score is probably a week or so after this sort of pattern has settled in place
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Great thread here
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That's an awesome thread, thanks for sharing

Basically, he looked for analogs that featured a Ural ridge, Aleutian low, SSW, in non-Nino years (it sounds like Nino/Nina isn't really driving this pattern we're in), and this is the punchline (we should look for cold in our part of the world 20-30 days post SSW event, so ~end of January for us):

 
KyloG said:
Week 3 on the EPS and GEFS look. Week 4 is more of the same so back half of January is modeled to be good.

Sorry if this was posted above, but just waking up and taking a look.

View attachment 60871View attachment 60872
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Late Jan/early Feb is right in the peak of our snow climo, pattern doesn't look horrible prior to then either.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Late Jan/early Feb is right in the peak of our snow climo, pattern doesn't look horrible prior to then either.
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Feel like come end of Jan into Feb we could moving towards a nina GOA/aleutian ridge and with the blocking, hopefully in place, could be a 60's style winter. Of course I am setting myself up for disappointment expecting that but one can hope....:)
 
KyloG said:
Feel like come end of Jan into Feb we could moving towards a nina GOA/aleutian ridge and with the blocking, hopefully in place, could be a 60's style winter. Of course I am setting myself up for disappointment expecting that but one can hope....:)
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Yeah even a 60s style winter doesn't necessarily guarantee anything but certainly is what we've always asked to see the past several years.
 
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