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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

Jessy89 said:
I can’t wait to see what cmc does with this tonight. And the euro the track is near perfect maybe we trend colder


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Very well could, if we get northern stream energy further ahead of it/stronger around the GL, could be a nice storm, plenty of time to trend either directions, euro was solid but it weakened the energy near the GL, but the CMC looked really good with that
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Of course when we get a legit arctic dump, we know where this is headed.... that NPAC/-EPO block = -PNA = southeast ridge View attachment 61868View attachment 61869
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Remember what I said , can’t play with fire and not get burned . Need to smell the 70 and sunshine before you can get the 32 and snow . It can be 70 and sunny and never get cold and snowy but it can never be cold without there being warm . Well 1977 but that was dry as hell and frigid , then the month after was really warm and hit 81. So I guess my rule still works .
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Very well could, if we get northern stream energy further ahead of it/stronger around the GL, could be a nice storm, plenty of time to trend either directions, euro was solid but it weakened the energy near the GL, but the CMC looked really good with that
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Yeah the gfs was about as bad as you can get if you want snow. Need something more similar to the euro/Canadian to have a shot. I mean it essentially is a split flow across NOAM at that point so we are probably going to see a few wild variations over the next few days. Wouldn't be at all surprised to get a wound up cutter and an overrunning event on the models as they try to resolve the wave interactions
 
I'm just going to leave this here:
Webberweather53 said:
Miller A setups like what we may see a lot of in the coming month or two are much more tenuous imo than CAD or overrunning and are typically boom/bust type events with very limited predictability beyond day 4-6. Point is, going forward thru January & even February, don't get discouraged if you aren't seeing fantasy long-range snowstorms on ensemble guidance or operational NWP. These kinds of storms often sneak up on you at the very last minute (think Jan 2000, Dec 2010 for ex (although we've made some improvements since then)).
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KyloG said:
Interesting seeing GEFS pull ridge off the west coast. If that continues and we block it could be like Jan 2011.

View attachment 61883View attachment 61885
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It’s nuts seeing the 500mb pattern like that yet have most of the US above normal at the surface. Why couldn’t they have left the GFS alone. Every time it gets a upgrade it gets worse and it wasn’t great to begin with.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
That’s almost exactly how we need that N/S trough to look with the second system, or like the Canadian
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Glacier National Park is the benchmark for northern stream parcels with phasing potential, I’d like to see the leading wave over the west central Plains but it’s workable given the t-step. Heights though along the EC/MA are above spec.
 
ajr said:
Random -- do you know if MJO phase is uniformly distributed (e.g. is Phase 1 equally likely to Phase 6?)?
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I know that as of recent, the MJO is much slower, and I'm far from an expert on tropical forcing, but these is the probabilities:
The climatological percentage probability for each of the eight MJO phases is around 8% (~33% of the time the MJO is in its weak state), and thus, the green/blue color scale also indicates probabilities greater than climatol- ogy for predictions of a strong MJO.
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https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1002/2016GL071423#:~:text=The climatological percentage probability for,predictions of a strong MJO.
 
KyloG said:
Interesting seeing GEFS pull ridge off the west coast. If that continues and we block it could be like Jan 2011.

View attachment 61883View attachment 61885
Click to expand...
National Weather ServiceUnited States Department of Commerce


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NWS Birmingham, Alabama
Weather Forecast Office
Heavy Snow & Ice Event - January 9-10, 2011
Weather.gov > NWS Birmingham, Alabama > Heavy Snow & Ice Event - January 9-10, 2011
Heavy Snow and Ice Event of January 9-10, 2011

On the morning of Sunday, January 9th, a low pressure system formed in the Gulf of Mexico just off the Texas coast. This low pressure system traveled parallel to the Gulf Coast throughout the day on Sunday and into the day on Monday before moving over the Florida Panhandle and off the Atlantic Seaboard Monday night. Even though the system weakened as it moved eastward, it brought moisture across Central Alabama, where cold temperatures were already in place from a cold front that had moved through Friday and Saturday, the 7th and 8th of January.
sfc analysis sfc analysis
Surface Analysis from 6 PM Sunday Surface Analysis from 12 AM Monday
sfc analysis sfc analysis
Surface Analysis from 6 AM Monday Surface Analysis from 12 PM Monday
By noon on Sunday, weak reflectivities were already on the radar, though, it wasn't until about 2 PM that afternoon when Tuscaloosa began reporting unknown precipitation. The bulk of the activity started later that evening, but because of an elevated warm layer of air that moved inland as the low pressure system passed to the south of Alabama, the southern half of the county warning area didn't receive any snow -- just ice and sleet. By daybreak Monday morning, areas north of Interstate 20 were reporting anywhere from 1 to 14 inches of snow with the heaviest totals near the Alabama-Tennessee state line. Ice reports were as high as 0.50 inches in multiple counties south of Interstate 20.
Snow and Ice Totals

The ice and snow from Sunday night and Monday morning created havoc across most of the state. By Sunday evening, businesses and schools had already declared they would be closed on Monday and for good reason. Road conditions around central Alabama caused many counties to declare that roads would be closed overnight Sunday night. Unfortunately, this winter weather event caused the loss of at least 2 lives on area roadways because of slick conditions.
Though the majority of the activity was over by Monday night, the effects of the system were felt for the next couple of days. Areas that saw excessive amounts of snow were plagued with melting and refreezing on area roadways for the next couple of days, creating slick conditions through Wednesday, January 12th.
Sleet in Maylene Snow in Oneonta
Sleet in Maylene, AL. Storm Totals of 2.5 inches. Snow in Oneonta, AL.
Submitted by Kristina Sumrall. Submitted by Blount County EMA.
Snow in St. Clair Snow in Pell City
Snow at the courthouse in St. Clair County. Snow in downtown Pell City.
Submitted by Patrice Payne. Submitted by Patrice Payne.
Satellite of Snow
Visible Satellite Image of Snow 3 Days Later
If you have any pictures from this event you would like to share with us, please email them to [email protected]. Images can be submitted in any format, but please try to keep the file sizes below 500 Kb. Please include a date and location the image was taken, and a brief description. Although not every detail is needed, be as specific as you can. For proper credit for the image, also include your name and location.
 
Ollie Williams said:
I know that as of recent, the MJO is much slower, and I'm far from an expert on tropical forcing, but these is the probabilities:

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1002/2016GL071423#:~:text=The climatological percentage probability for,predictions of a strong MJO.
Click to expand...

Thanks! And sorry for the follow-on question here.. for the table from @Webberweather53, do you know if magnitude of the MJO is incorporated somehow? Looking at the forecast, I'm not sure how much the MJO is driving our pattern:

1609634334562.png

Climate Prediction Center - Daily MJO Indices

www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
 
DarkKnight said:
National Weather ServiceUnited States Department of Commerce


Local forecast by
"City, St" or ZIP code
Location Help
News Headlines

NWS Birmingham, Alabama
Weather Forecast Office
Heavy Snow & Ice Event - January 9-10, 2011
Weather.gov > NWS Birmingham, Alabama > Heavy Snow & Ice Event - January 9-10, 2011
Heavy Snow and Ice Event of January 9-10, 2011

On the morning of Sunday, January 9th, a low pressure system formed in the Gulf of Mexico just off the Texas coast. This low pressure system traveled parallel to the Gulf Coast throughout the day on Sunday and into the day on Monday before moving over the Florida Panhandle and off the Atlantic Seaboard Monday night. Even though the system weakened as it moved eastward, it brought moisture across Central Alabama, where cold temperatures were already in place from a cold front that had moved through Friday and Saturday, the 7th and 8th of January.
sfc analysis sfc analysis
Surface Analysis from 6 PM Sunday Surface Analysis from 12 AM Monday
sfc analysis sfc analysis
Surface Analysis from 6 AM Monday Surface Analysis from 12 PM Monday
By noon on Sunday, weak reflectivities were already on the radar, though, it wasn't until about 2 PM that afternoon when Tuscaloosa began reporting unknown precipitation. The bulk of the activity started later that evening, but because of an elevated warm layer of air that moved inland as the low pressure system passed to the south of Alabama, the southern half of the county warning area didn't receive any snow -- just ice and sleet. By daybreak Monday morning, areas north of Interstate 20 were reporting anywhere from 1 to 14 inches of snow with the heaviest totals near the Alabama-Tennessee state line. Ice reports were as high as 0.50 inches in multiple counties south of Interstate 20.
Snow and Ice Totals

The ice and snow from Sunday night and Monday morning created havoc across most of the state. By Sunday evening, businesses and schools had already declared they would be closed on Monday and for good reason. Road conditions around central Alabama caused many counties to declare that roads would be closed overnight Sunday night. Unfortunately, this winter weather event caused the loss of at least 2 lives on area roadways because of slick conditions.
Though the majority of the activity was over by Monday night, the effects of the system were felt for the next couple of days. Areas that saw excessive amounts of snow were plagued with melting and refreezing on area roadways for the next couple of days, creating slick conditions through Wednesday, January 12th.
Sleet in Maylene Snow in Oneonta
Sleet in Maylene, AL. Storm Totals of 2.5 inches. Snow in Oneonta, AL.
Submitted by Kristina Sumrall. Submitted by Blount County EMA.
Snow in St. Clair Snow in Pell City
Snow at the courthouse in St. Clair County. Snow in downtown Pell City.
Submitted by Patrice Payne. Submitted by Patrice Payne.
Satellite of Snow
Visible Satellite Image of Snow 3 Days Later
If you have any pictures from this event you would like to share with us, please email them to [email protected]. Images can be submitted in any format, but please try to keep the file sizes below 500 Kb. Please include a date and location the image was taken, and a brief description. Although not every detail is needed, be as specific as you can. For proper credit for the image, also include your name and location.

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ajr said:
Thanks! And sorry for the follow-on question here.. for the table from @Webberweather53, do you know if magnitude of the MJO is incorporated somehow? Looking at the forecast, I'm not sure how much the MJO is driving our pattern:

View attachment 61886

Climate Prediction Center - Daily MJO Indices

www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
Click to expand...
This is something I’ve noticed for the last several weeks. The MJO has been very low amped for the most part and at times has been in COD. The last several winters you could look at the MJO and see it going very close to the outside of the charts.
 
ajr said:
Thanks! And sorry for the follow-on question here.. for the table from @Webberweather53, do you know if magnitude of the MJO is incorporated somehow? Looking at the forecast, I'm not sure how much the MJO is driving our pattern:

View attachment 61886

Climate Prediction Center - Daily MJO Indices

www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
Click to expand...
Just remember that RMM plots aren't necessarily very good to match up with composites and analogs, since in reality, the MJO is much more complex. I read a post over on 33andRain and saw this graphic that shows each phase's correlation to temperatures on the east coast. Notice that even though phase 4-5-6 are warm, it doesn't mean that much temperature-wise on the east coast, if I'm reading this right. Obviously, if it's even weaker it will mean less, vs staying in high amplitude MC for a month with a strong PV as we did in 2019-2020. That's why I wouldn't freak out about going into the MC in February because we still gain the benefits from the Strat warm and AAM.
combined_image.png
 
Ollie Williams said:
Click to expand...

I think I remember this quite well ... one of the very few times the sleet/snow line actually wavered in our favor (wake county specifically apex is where I was at) cold air was much stronger than anticipated and there for the rates of snow we had piled the snow up quickly .. if I am remembering correctly
 
If 00z is the same or even better and continues into tomorrow night and other models join and it stays, than there might be something legit, Surface temps here will be the biggest issue, control had snow falling around 34-37 637603AA-C538-4520-9124-7B11EB04F164.png55FABEE3-6A9D-4C19-8F7B-3AFFF3892AAD.pngC5F4B36D-BDBD-48A3-9E8D-0C0306F43216.png1809883D-CF44-4E27-B9F5-67D1C8F2536E.png
 
Tarheel1 said:
Your snowiest month of the year is February, according to BRad
Click to expand...
For NC as a whole, he is wrong.
November: 3% (17 total)
December: 18% (114 total)
January: 35% (221 total)
February: 29% (186 total)
March: 14% (70 total)
April: 1% (8 total)
 
Last edited by a moderator:
DarkKnight said:
National Weather ServiceUnited States Department of Commerce


Local forecast by
"City, St" or ZIP code
Location Help
News Headlines

NWS Birmingham, Alabama
Weather Forecast Office
Heavy Snow & Ice Event - January 9-10, 2011
Weather.gov > NWS Birmingham, Alabama > Heavy Snow & Ice Event - January 9-10, 2011
Heavy Snow and Ice Event of January 9-10, 2011

On the morning of Sunday, January 9th, a low pressure system formed in the Gulf of Mexico just off the Texas coast. This low pressure system traveled parallel to the Gulf Coast throughout the day on Sunday and into the day on Monday before moving over the Florida Panhandle and off the Atlantic Seaboard Monday night. Even though the system weakened as it moved eastward, it brought moisture across Central Alabama, where cold temperatures were already in place from a cold front that had moved through Friday and Saturday, the 7th and 8th of January.
sfc analysis sfc analysis
Surface Analysis from 6 PM Sunday Surface Analysis from 12 AM Monday
sfc analysis sfc analysis
Surface Analysis from 6 AM Monday Surface Analysis from 12 PM Monday
By noon on Sunday, weak reflectivities were already on the radar, though, it wasn't until about 2 PM that afternoon when Tuscaloosa began reporting unknown precipitation. The bulk of the activity started later that evening, but because of an elevated warm layer of air that moved inland as the low pressure system passed to the south of Alabama, the southern half of the county warning area didn't receive any snow -- just ice and sleet. By daybreak Monday morning, areas north of Interstate 20 were reporting anywhere from 1 to 14 inches of snow with the heaviest totals near the Alabama-Tennessee state line. Ice reports were as high as 0.50 inches in multiple counties south of Interstate 20.
Snow and Ice Totals

The ice and snow from Sunday night and Monday morning created havoc across most of the state. By Sunday evening, businesses and schools had already declared they would be closed on Monday and for good reason. Road conditions around central Alabama caused many counties to declare that roads would be closed overnight Sunday night. Unfortunately, this winter weather event caused the loss of at least 2 lives on area roadways because of slick conditions.
Though the majority of the activity was over by Monday night, the effects of the system were felt for the next couple of days. Areas that saw excessive amounts of snow were plagued with melting and refreezing on area roadways for the next couple of days, creating slick conditions through Wednesday, January 12th.
Sleet in Maylene Snow in Oneonta
Sleet in Maylene, AL. Storm Totals of 2.5 inches. Snow in Oneonta, AL.
Submitted by Kristina Sumrall. Submitted by Blount County EMA.
Snow in St. Clair Snow in Pell City
Snow at the courthouse in St. Clair County. Snow in downtown Pell City.
Submitted by Patrice Payne. Submitted by Patrice Payne.
Satellite of Snow
Visible Satellite Image of Snow 3 Days Later
If you have any pictures from this event you would like to share with us, please email them to [email protected]. Images can be submitted in any format, but please try to keep the file sizes below 500 Kb. Please include a date and location the image was taken, and a brief description. Although not every detail is needed, be as specific as you can. For proper credit for the image, also include your name and location.
Click to expand...
I got 10 1/2 inches in NW Madison County near Huntsville. One of the sweet spots ;-) Got 4 inches in 1 hour! It was paradise
 
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