Montanasnow30
Member
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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January
- Thread starter TheBatman
- Start date
Meanwhile from the CMCE...
Indeed. I liked day 6-10 on the euro we actually poked some ridging into the Arctic circle and tapped into that.
The control has a big storm north of I-40.
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
That seems pretty close!
EPS is actually a little bit better than last run
Rates will overcome. Lol
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Need to see the heights rise near & north of Alaska to force Eurasia to share some of its cold air w/ N America.
Problem is, close at that range usually doesn't turn out well. You need a slam dunk at range if you want snow around here, most of the time.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Low-level warm anomalies retrograding towards Alaska by day 10 on the EPS. We're getting closer to opening the refrigerator door.
LickWx
Member
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
It's happening
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
-NAO legitimately backing off after January 10th on the EPS, that's usually when the mid-Atlantic tends to score in regimes like this. Might be a hot take but I want to see a big storm there at some point & hopefully by mid-month so these air masses aren't as stale when they arrive here
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
288 hr EPS showing a closed mid-level ridge north of Alaska in the arctic circle.
Should start to see some of the really cold air over Siberia get transported across the pond & into N America once this feature goes up.
Should start to see some of the really cold air over Siberia get transported across the pond & into N America once this feature goes up.
Really would be nice if we could dislodge a TPV 
Wow! The EPS is literally almost the exact H5 look for Miller A storms in NC!
Nice to have the EPS as eye candy rather than the GEFS/GFS
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yep, definitely a big -EPO-like signal being hinted at on the EPS as we approach mid-month & if that comes to fruition, then we'll finally have legit cold air masses to work with for most of the board. Provides even more credence to the Jan 15-25 period I've been outlining imo
It is kind of surprising however to see the mean increase barely/not at all over the SE at the end of its run.
whatalife
Moderator
I’ll just leave this right here. Last 7 days on the EPS
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RVD
Meteorology Student
Those are fairly impressive anomalies w/ the Aleutian low + west coast ridge in particular, for >10 days out. That alone is promising IMO since it implies some fairly good agreement among ensemble members in the longer range.
I wish more model sites would make graphics that quantified the spread among ensemble members, and not just show the ensemble means.
Solid 
Honestly I don’t see much bad about going forward ... while these threats are showing up a bit too warm.. I’m telling y’all upper level lows almost always over preform here across the South East like they even have this year. We’re getting to be the best time of the year and we’re just a few degrees off? Even the EURO has onset flurries across NC and I could see this doing the old sneak on us once we get closer and giving more cold air than what we’re seeing right now or maybe some convective nature helping us out ... maybe something we have to let the NAM see ?
Damn, imagine if we had better cold air with this look, geez 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Mid Atlantic hand off. Figures
I guess we can’t be disappointed tho, these first systems are way more likely to go the MA, if we do get something off these that’s a bonus
ATLwxfan
Member
Seems like we kick the can till the MJO goes unfavorable and then...we kick more cans.
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Thank God! I got quite a snowless streak going. I'd hate to break it.
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
I know the cold air is marginal at best, but the Friday-Saturday system remains intriguing to me. If we can get just enough high pressure to the north and the upper low to move to our south as some guidance suggests, there could be some wet snow to be had in places.
This may be reaching a bit, but if that system on the 8th-9th puts down a good snow cover over VA, MD, and southern PA, could their be little bit colder air at the surface for the following system to draw into. It seems like both of these we’re just talking a matter of a few degrees and either one of them could turn into something decent for the NC Piedmont
I'd be ok with a brief change over for an hour. I can count on 3 fingers the number of snowfalls I've seen since April 2018
That ULL showing up sorta reminds me a little bit of that one in March 2018 (except this time it’s definitely warmer) and likely would be much less if any, @Ollie Williams do you have a map for that one at H5 ?
Dewpoint Dan
Member
Lol. Warmer in early Jan than March ?
Lol. Yep
NoSnowATL
Member
This year. Yes
BHS1975
Member
Someone, I think it was @Ollie Williams had a composite of winterstorms and MJO phases. All phases looked similar to me for producing winterstorms, especially in Feb. except phase 1. Which I had always thought was a good phase. I do believe the MJO can affect the overall pattern whether it's a torch or not. But undividual winterstorms not so much. The more I learn each year the more I'm convinced it really doesn't matter the indexes or pattern. It just takes luck around here. The advertised pattern coming surely helps odds but still need luck.
