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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

SD said:
I thought the euro might flip us on the backside instead just flipped the bird. Gotta go hate we are basically trying to make the best with Pacific or modified cP airmasses here. I'd still take my chances trying to pull a magic trick with the Euro setup though. You'd have to think there would be an area of cold 850s north and west of the upper low and enough banded precip we could flip areas to snow
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cP air mass in early-mid January is at best marginally favorable for snow in NC, until the block starts to shift north a bit and we have a few storms under our belt to secure some snow to the north, meh. We gotta do everything right, get a slightly stronger upper trough, then have the heaviest precip arrive during the late overnight/early morning to have any real chance to get accumulating snow out of this and even checking all of these boxes is gonna be difficult.
 
Miller A screw zone already, you know what stay a cold rain so we’ll all lose if this does trend colder 57483334-1AFA-48DE-B6A4-BDDE56868E72.png
 
I hate to say it, but this pattern is a disaster for winter weather. None of the models look supportive of any cold air whatsoever for at least the next 10-15 days. Beyond that, all we have is theory and hope.

I think we'll eventually get lucky and see an outbreak of cold at some point, but until we start to see Canada legitimately turn cold, we're just going to be watching this same old crap over and over. And there's no sign of that happening for at least the next 10 days.

What another first half of winter pile of monkey crap.
 
All joking aside, things do look good towards the end of the runs. And it does seem like end of Jan is best chance at snow.

1/18/18
1/22/16
1/28/14
1/28/10
1/20/09
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yeah this is all it manages to do, could be much better imo View attachment 61719
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That's more than we have seen in 2 teas
Rain Cold said:
I hate to say it, but this pattern is a disaster for winter weather. None of the models look supportive of any cold air whatsoever for at least the next 10-15 days. Beyond that, all we have is theory and hope.

I think we'll eventually get lucky and see an outbreak of cold at some point, but until we start to see Canada legitimately turn cold, we're just going to be watching this same old crap over and over. And there's no sign of that happening for at least the next 10 days.

What another first half of winter pile of monkey crap.
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Totally agree. There has never been any true signs of cold enough temperatures for winter weather. That pattern does look quite stormy for January but that's about it.
 
KyloG said:
All joking aside, things do look good towards the end of the runs. And it does seem like end of Jan is best chance at snow.

1/18/18
1/22/16
1/28/14
1/28/10
1/20/09
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The GFS is awful at D15. And the Euro isn't much better at D10. Yesterday's looked better. But we keep seeing alternating crap/decent/crap/decent all the way at the end of range of these models. Hopefully, by the end of January, we're on the doorstep of coldee weather.
 
Rain Cold said:
I hate to say it, but this pattern is a disaster for winter weather. None of the models look supportive of any cold air whatsoever for at least the next 10-15 days. Beyond that, all we have is theory and hope.

I think we'll eventually get lucky and see an outbreak of cold at some point, but until we start to see Canada legitimately turn cold, we're just going to be watching this same old crap over and over. And there's no sign of that happening for at least the next 10 days.

What another first half of winter pile of monkey crap.
Click to expand...
I wouldn’t totally just say that yet, I’d say if we still are looking at the same cold air issues in 4-5 days then yeah, just to early to assume anything at this point, but I agree cold isn’t on our side
 
Rain Cold said:
The GFS is awful at D15. And the Euro isn't much better at D10. Yesterday's looked better. But we keep seeing alternating crap/decent/crap/decent all the way at the end of range of these models. Hopefully, by the end of January, we're on the doorstep of coldee weather.
Click to expand...
If we are still waiting at the end of the month might as well put a bow on this one
 
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