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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

Maxar hates cold.

BS. Yours is a nonsense post. Maxar hates nonobjectivity and being a weenie in forecasting like JB.
They always provide detailed backup to their forecasts. Would you care to challenge them on what they said here?

I wouldn’t pay for their expertise if I thought they weren’t worth it.

It has been mostly warm in recent winters in most of the E US. So, much of the time they’ve gone with warmth and have been right. Would you prefer a JB seemingly always cold forecast to make you feel better? Besides, you want it warm anyway so you could play golf comfortably as you said.

Regardless, this only covers the next 20 days. It is beyond that that hopefully the SE turns cold again as I think even Webb said.
 
i honestly think eventually even with the active pacific jet, we’ll undercut the block, may not happen like this or at this time but it’s not that uncommon with blocks DA4DC6D3-DB8D-44D2-9EE9-FFE72BC8FC13.png
 
It's gonna be hard to torch or go well above normal when the center of the ridge axis is over north-central Canada. Looks like largely a continuation of this past month temperature wise, with maybe a bigger -PNA lean at times as individual waves move into the west coast.

View attachment 60889
I'll take it. Anything that keeps the leaves from budding in winter like the last few years works for me. Frosts in the morning and 40s and 50s in the afternoon is a good winter in my books with a few colder days in there.
 
Even with the pattern before the SSWE effects start, sure does look active with a pacific jet, this look at H5 argues for maybe some cold air damming events and severe weather 5A791B15-F223-444A-B0FC-8395E6E3A8DA.png3121EBA9-23DE-475F-8A75-8C49437A323C.png
 
Not a bad looking pattern as we approach mid January on the 12Z GEFS but this is still pretty far out and the GEFS has been unreliable even during earlier periods. I’m still hoping for a chilly last half of January:



0ED608AB-245C-4781-B659-1066F38DD0C7.png
 
The most interesting part of the GFS you can see as the block starts to retrograde each system loses latitude and ends up with an interesting system by D16. Just based off of the 12z GFS you would have to circle 1/15-20 as a potential time period to have something hit for parts of the region. NAO block gets back toward Davis Strait so we can get a decent storm going off of the SE Canada coast in the 50/50 region and hopefully suppress the pattern enough for a miller B or maybe slip a southern slider type event through
 
The most interesting part of the GFS you can see as the block starts to retrograde each system loses latitude and ends up with an interesting system by D16. Just based off of the 12z GFS you would have to circle 1/15-20 as a potential time period to have something hit for parts of the region. NAO block gets back toward Davis Strait so we can get a decent storm going off of the SE Canada coast in the 50/50 region and hopefully suppress the pattern enough for a miller B or maybe slip a southern slider type event through
Basically the same process happens on the GEFS, note this was a hour 384 pattern a day or so ago 0BA511D2-0F6B-4104-8C28-CBD0F5863939.png
 
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