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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January
- Thread starter TheBatman
- Start date
A warm day ? ? I almost can’t believe it 
NOAA Dailies from 1/25/2000:
PNA +0.9 (fairly strong +PNA).
AO: +0.5 (weak to moderate +AO)
NAO: -0.5 (moderate -NAO)
EPO: neutral/near 0
Good post. What you may remember with the 2000 storm is how cold it got. You can see by your map above how much of a connection to arctic air we had. It got really, really cold after that storm for a good while. One for the ages.
Cross polar flow, key ingredient for winter storms in the SE.
That disappoints me because I know that will never be replicated here. Oh well, as long as something can produce measurable snow between now and March I’ll take it.
Even this look is adjustable if you strengthen that low near the northeast, just looking for fun though, and this is honestly still a bit before the big timeframe 
BHS1975
Member
Yeap I saw it get down to -3 F while working at the RDU ASOS. My face went numb just from the breeze created while walking.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The godfather of NC winter storms likely had a "crappy" N Pacific, strong west-based -NAO/Baffin Bay blocking, & transient +PNA. I'll take this every day of the week over Jan 2000 & it's honestly the kind of pattern we could be looking forward to at some pt in mid-January or so.
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It was really cold for those of us that lost power
Storm5
Member
The godfather of NC winter storms likely had a "crappy" N Pacific, strong west-based -NAO/Baffin Bay blocking, & transient +PNA. I'll take this every day of the week over Jan 2000 & it's honestly the kind of pattern we could be looking forward to at some pt in mid-January or so.
View attachment 60969
View attachment 60970
Lol brick would have died with these totals
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If you compare the 1927 500 mb chart with a similar one in the upcoming pattern, how would surface temps across NA compare? I would expect both patterns would be warmer than the pattern that yielded January 2000.
My guess would be 1927 would be colder across the continent, given we live in a warmer world now. Therefore, my fear is that marginal patterns of the past that created great SE snows may not work nowadays, meaning we need a fairly favorable pattern plus air that is quite cold, relative to normal, nearby. But maybe that assumption is in error.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
1927 is colder anomaly-wise than Jan 2000 but warmer in the means because it's early March and not mid-late Jan. Surface observations, specifically SLP are directly assimilated by NOAA 20CRv3 so they're likely to be much more reliable than 500mb
Please, please don’t tell me we’re about to fire hose 
Coach B
Member
I won't speak to the climate part, but at least over here in the mid south the 1920s were absolutely awful for snow. I believe it was the worst decade of the century for Nashville.
Pretty solid nino so far
Webberweather53
Meteorologist