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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January
- Thread starter TheBatman
- Start date
Don't sweat the small stuff at 180 hours out. Alot of moving pieces going on right there. More then likely it would be snow for northern al.
Reminds me of December 2017, Louisiana gets snow but RDU gets cold rain
Wow we are legitimately getting winter storms to pop up on globals now .. I think it’s safe to say this pattern looks to be the real deal... a legitimate string of winter storms could be coming for the southeast ... and by southeast I mean WILKES
Yeah, if this basic set up holds, there's no way Northern Miss, Bama, into SE Tn isn't snow. Now if it stays suppressed, I guess it's possible. I've seen more than my fair share of snow storms missing us to the South. Edit: those 850s look plenty cold for snow, and the precip field is probably underdone.
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Clem282340
Member
When does the eps come out
Its out to hr90 now.
NorthGaWinter4
Member
First storm is mostly NC imo but the pattern looks amazing for the SE
Im definitely running with that. Also running with possible round two a few days later. Not far from a nice overrunning look.
Edit: Just FYI to everyone. When you start nosing a 580+dm ridge into California as on the the EPS, things get real, real fast in the SE.
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Round Oak Weather
Member
Of course us in central GA get screwed ?
EPS has been getting better and better for BHM. GEFS looks like trash at the moment but the EPS has slowly been ramping up the last 4-5 runs.
FWIW, last nights CFS says -NAO fever into February, with no end in sight.
Wtf ?
Almost identical low track as CMC last night?
ATLwxfan
Member
Boom!
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
i quite
if this storm runs south like that in LA, there's no way central SC doesn't get in on the action... weird snow map there.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
Member
2024 Supporter
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Just WOW! ?
logic tells me that. But.....
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
2025 Supporter
You’re quite what?
my tumultuous affair with these maps lol
Dewpoint Dan
Member
I think you meant quit, not quite.
hahaha yes.
Avalanche
Member
Oh my gosh yall be quiet.
yep that was my reaction for sure
#DOWNSLOPE CITY SMDH U CAN BURN THAT PIC TOO
ATLwxfan
Member
Has there been a more anticipated set of model runs this winter than this upcoming suite of 12z’s?
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What time are they out
Yes, I had anticipated yesterday’s runs more. After the trends with the warm nose, I’ve distanced myself from the weenie runs.
NAM ran at 8:45
ICON started at 10:00
GFSstarts at 10:30
CMC starts at 11:00
Euro at 12:45
EPS/Control at 1:45
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Feels like I'm beating a dead horse, but -------- this pattern around and just after mid-January is so fooking favorable for snow in the south. Can't believe I'm saying this, but this pattern is so good that I'll actually be legitimately surprised this time around if it doesn't snow at some pt in the Jan 15-25 period for a majority of this board, details obviously remain to be seen. On a scale of 1-10 in terms of favorability, this planetary-scale pattern is at least a 9.
Keep in mind the GEFS has had a very strong warm bias this winter in the medium-extended range and it's already showing 5-day averaged 850mb temp anomalies of up to -3 to -4C in parts of the south in the 11-16.
I mean... just wow lol.
Keep in mind the GEFS has had a very strong warm bias this winter in the medium-extended range and it's already showing 5-day averaged 850mb temp anomalies of up to -3 to -4C in parts of the south in the 11-16.
I mean... just wow lol.
I absolutely love where that trough sets up at the end of the GEFS. That’s where dreams are made if a s/w can set up there.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I'll have to get around at some point to updating my excel sheet with daily teleconnections and add in a column for daily AO.
I know on its own, it's honestly pretty rare to see the a -EPO/+PNA/-NAO/-AO of at least 0.5 sigma for each index across the board, so that alone is awesome. To give us a ballpark number to work with, I'm curious what the historical chance of accumulating snow has been in say central NC when we've had at least 5-10 consecutive days of at least 0.5 sigma -EPO, +PNA, -NAO, & -AO in January &/or DJF? I'd imagine that figure is probably gonna be pretty high
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
It honestly doesn't get a whole lot better than that plus we're doing this in late January basically right at peak climo for snow too.
Looks a lot like the La Nina major SSWE composite.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Posts like this make me wish we had a more readily accessible nut emoji.
Yeah I been thinking the same thing @SD