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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

Ollie Williams said:
IMO, I wouldn't freak out about surface temps. I would look at 850s because based on this look if we do get a good storm track, we can get some CAA to cool the surface enough for snow. I'm not saying we'll see Vodka cold in week two, although, I wouldn't bet against that later in the month.
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Yeah with those sort of marginal waves we’re seeing, anything would probably be driven off dynamical cooling/top to bottom cooling
 
Can we update the damn thread title? Doom and gloom while analogous to SE winters, makes one feel like we are in rehab vs a bonafide treatment plan.

Hemispheric pattern change is underway, ens means useful <10 days, weeklies carry some weight beyond, Ops 5-7 days at best. We have been here before, let’s act like it.
 
WeatherNC said:
Can we update the damn thread title? Doom and gloom while analogous to SE winters, makes one feel like we are in rehab vs a bonafide treatment plan.

Hemispheric pattern change is underway, ens means useful <10 days, weeklies carry some weight beyond, Ops 5-7 days at best. We have been here before, let’s act like it.
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The thread title was intentionally gloomy s.t. we wouldn't scare off the good pattern.
 
Screw CAD. Raleigh is sitting right on the edge of it right now , dewpoint of 38 vs dewpoint 29 Greensboro . It’s cool seeing the differences over just 10 miles . For example , the Stratus deck out in Wilson isn’t full, you can see breaks of sky in it . I can even see the moon out there rn . Back in Raleigh though it’s full.
 
Lickwx said:
Screw CAD. Raleigh is sitting right on the edge of it right now , dewpoint of 38 vs dewpoint 29 Greensboro . It’s cool seeing the differences over just 10 miles . For example , the Stratus deck out in Wilson isn’t full, you can see breaks of sky in it . I can even see the moon out there rn . Back in Raleigh though it’s full.
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I’m interested in this.... not sure I’ve seen anything like that before 2BB6C84B-E664-48D3-8DD4-56B631A46CD9.jpeg
 
FallsLake said:
Yeah CADs here. Sitting at 38 with drizzle. It was funny seeing the local mets back off on the warm forecasted temps from a couple days back. I think at one point, they had the Triangle hitting 70 on Friday. We may not get out of the 40s now.
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Yeah saw that a mile away.


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GaWx said:
This Happy Hour GEFS map will make SE cold lovers happy:
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Does the block (remnants) at some point late Jan come down through the Plains? If so KU potential is high. After which, pattern would likely break for early Feb. The longer we can maintain a neg AO/NAO (west) combo through Jan the better and elongates our window of opportunity.
 
It’s going to be a little bit interesting to see how strong this wedge holds for the next several days. TWC still has me getting up close to 60 tomorrow and Friday and up to 70 on Saturday while NWS has me staying close to 50 tomorrow and Friday and only 60 on Saturday and then both cool back down to around 50 on Sunday. If this wedge holds strong like the NAM is indicating both of those forecasts could bust big time.
 
Agree that we should change the thread title. We can work with this:

500hv.na.png
 
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