micro adjustments work for East Tennessee.. I'm moving around some funds for futures bets.
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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January
- Thread starter TheBatman
- Start date
Should be interesting to see how we adjust any sort of 50/50 low as we get closer
Nice +PNA earlier this run, glad to see that
Classic +PNA/-NAO
The Captain of Catastrophe (or is it Confusion?) will be barking on this one.. book it.
Classic retrogression in the pacific over time starting as early as hour 84, GEFS could be to fast with the +PNA but it could be right 
Source cold not good, climate change, dewpoint dan effect?
I bet it’s just to warm at the sfc, there’s some decent cool 850 anomalies for that range
DD effect...lmao!
Typically any air plunging out of Canada deep into the SE is BN when it gets there. I think it is a problem with the GEFS, which has become warm biased at two meters ever since it became FV3 based.
This is probably going to sound stupid, but is it possible for there to be a -NAO block, coupled with a +PNA, that actually holds source cold in NW Canada at bay? Feel free to spank me for a dumb q...
Nice 
Nah as we get closer there would probably be pieces of N/S energy (clippers as well) diving SE embedded/on top of the PNA ridge which would be the source for cold, especially with phases to boot
Blocking is already having a effect in the shorter term 
Good luck handling this at that range, tons of N/S energy moving around under the block 
I'm punting until Late Jan/Feb... if this is going to be a good 3-4 week winter stint in the SE we will need a step down pattern. Some of the greatest cold/snow Winters down here didn't just happen overnight after a warm 10 day period.. there was a several week step down, with minimal Arctic fronts, that got progressively more powerful. Think this Winter will be like that. I'm as guilty as the next guy about getting impatient. Function is the key, as Fugazi says. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong, and still happy.
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I agree, gradually go from wave after wave that slowly and effectively strengthens the block and filters colder air down then maybe we get that PNA ridge, should be fun to watch