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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

mrdaddyman said:
Doesn't this just mean "bone chilling cold with not a drop of moisture in sight" kind of cold though?
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Nah it doesn't look like it's a massive overwhelming ridge out west driving the pattern into a suppression hell. A decent amount of room to get something to sneak through and really the later hours of the gefs start to get a little bit of an overrunning/southern slider look
 
If we see the euro today and the 0z runs show something for the 1/10-12 period @DadOfJax can go ahead and restart the thread tomorrow morning. Things are likely going to start getting jumbled in here if we don't with posts about that system and the pattern later in the month.

To add most models show something in that time period for our Ms/Tn/Ar/NAl posters
 
SD said:
Nah it doesn't look like it's a massive overwhelming ridge out west driving the pattern into a suppression hell. A decent amount of room to get something to sneak through and really the later hours of the gefs start to get a little bit of an overrunning/southern slider look
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Yeah I completely agree, this is definitely getting that southern slider look on the GEFS. Can't wait to see how cold we actually get once its warm bias is resolved, already almost cold enough down to the I-20 corridor taking the GEFS verbatim.
 
Like it.

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_28.png
 
DarkKnight said:
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I've lived through an evolution like this several times. It's still way too early to hammer out the details, though. I remember seeing reports of heavy snow in Montgomery and getting nothing but a few sleet pellets mixed with an incredibly cold rain. Mississippi is not too far to chase, though...hhhhhm.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yep by then we will know if these trends we are currently seeing on the models are a mirage or not. Even still we literally have to do everything perfectly in this setup and send up a hope/prayer to get legit accumulating snow out of this. It’s very frustrating imo because if we had even semi legit arctic air mass in the prior period or some snow to our north we’d be sitting damn good rn and be looking at a really big event with a look like this. We are lucky this is occurring near our peak climo temp wise because it would have basically no chance otherwise.
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“Chances” are stacked against us all the time - . Why so against this setup?
Webberweather53 said:
Omg look at that cold press coming in from MO & KS

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Understood and agree.... I love the outlook next week and through later this month. Why no focus or love on the potential this weekend?
 
ATLwxfan said:
People have downplayed this but this bit of geography matters when we thread the needle.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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I don't have a lot of interest in the depth of the models as much as others, which is why I don't post very much, but when it comes to statistics, elevations, climate, I've observed and studied it. I've seen it make a difference many times with close calls. December 2017 was a great example.
 
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