Don’t know why it loves to basically send outer space to the surface sometimes
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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January
- Thread starter TheBatman
- Start date
I'd keep an eye on this time frame tbh it can easily trend either way
That’s a trend good for the second stuff
For example, each run
Last nights 00z
yesterdays 12z
00z tonight
Still got tons of work to do
Last nights 00z
yesterdays 12z00z tonightStill got tons of work to do
Dang /:
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Won't take much of a change in this pattern to trigger an overrunning event here. If the Hudson Bay vortex digs a little deeper into the Lakes, we're in business.
ajr
Member
The para is all in on cold rain for central NC the next one-two weeks. This frame stands out:
There is just no cold air transport into the southeastern US. All of the solutions that were showing serious and sustained cold air intrusions a few days ago are gone. Even if the storm trends more favorably, unless something changes up north to bring cold air back into the picture, then it's a cold rain for most, with maybe a little 34 degree front and back end slop.
There is no cold air. It's just that simple.
There is no cold air. It's just that simple.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
9 degrees here this morning. Guess that’s what a snow pack, clear skies, and calm winds will do for you. Most models had us around 17 for a low.
tennessee storm
Member
bingo, until then. we are just grasping at straws and hoping. get ready for the cold rains
Who you got? The last 10 days of January has been a popular time for us to see snow.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Biggest change on NWP vs 3 days ago is the lack of ridging in the Bering Sea + near & north of Alaska. Eurasia also looks a lot colder and there's more -NAO.
Is this there not enough cold air around in this pattern now as currently modeled as some are claiming above? Well... no that's not true at all esp if you live near the I-40 corridor in TN & NC. For ex, we just had snow east of the mtns in the Carolinas and a snowstorm is striking Texas well south of the 20 corridor, whose snow climo is total garbage vs most of this board, and despite the change to less high-latitude blocking in the Pacific-Arctic, the pattern still looks like it'll be legitimately colder overall in the extended than it is now. So, to say there isn't enough cold air w/ pattern as modeled is total nonsense imo. Oth, for the I-20 corridor and places like Columbia, Atlanta, you might have an argument.
3 days ago 5-day EPS z500 ending 0z Jan 22
Today's 5-day EPS z500 ending 0z Jan 22
Is this there not enough cold air around in this pattern now as currently modeled as some are claiming above? Well... no that's not true at all esp if you live near the I-40 corridor in TN & NC. For ex, we just had snow east of the mtns in the Carolinas and a snowstorm is striking Texas well south of the 20 corridor, whose snow climo is total garbage vs most of this board, and despite the change to less high-latitude blocking in the Pacific-Arctic, the pattern still looks like it'll be legitimately colder overall in the extended than it is now. So, to say there isn't enough cold air w/ pattern as modeled is total nonsense imo. Oth, for the I-20 corridor and places like Columbia, Atlanta, you might have an argument.
3 days ago 5-day EPS z500 ending 0z Jan 22
Today's 5-day EPS z500 ending 0z Jan 22
whatalife
Moderator
This is just not the “WOW” pattern some said was coming. Just because it snows doesn’t make an overall pattern great. Is there time for that to change? Sure! It’s a wait and see game for now.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Well that's not really true though, if it's snowing in south-central Texas in the current pattern w/ snow climo that's even worse than Columbia-Atlanta, and the one we're going to is better I'd say it's a great pattern. There's some synoptic luck involved but you have to be good if not great to be lucky.
Just FYI but I did some major digging. Here is last nights 00z Euro for D6:
And here was the 1/18/18 storm at D6 on the Euro:
Certainly some similarities. Just need a little help. Probably won't get it, but worth watching another day or two IMO.
And here was the 1/18/18 storm at D6 on the Euro:
Certainly some similarities. Just need a little help. Probably won't get it, but worth watching another day or two IMO.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
There's not anything similar on that map at all. Tilt is entirely different, that massive 1048 high isn't there, there's a low up in the GL region, etc.
It snows in south central TX every year and Mexico and in the Southwest. Very happy for those people. I don't see any mechanism to direct arctic air into the southeastern US on a sustainable basis right now. Maybe something gets well-timed for the Triad, mountains, VA, and extreme northern GA, AL, and for TN. That's pretty typical too. They can work much better with stale air and marginal dew points.
But for a large chunk of the SE, south of those areas, we're going to need something more than an in and out cold shot if we are to get something other than a thread the needle scenario. Until we start to see arctic highs showing up, you can post ensemble maps showing blue streaks until you're blue in the face, but it's just going to be more cold rain for most.
Maybe we get a late blooming phased coastal that crashes the column and we snow. Otherwise, give me a big high pressure. Until I see that, this isn't all that great of a pattern, IMO. And I certainly don't think any of that is nonsense.