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Wintry December 4-7 Winter Precip Chance

Not too far off for here in GA per the NAM. Haven't seen much talk for GA but I think we might be in for at least a flizzard if it gets slightly more moist.
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Ollie Williams said:
As @Webberweather53 was saying, Miller A’s really don’t favor CLT. I can see a NW trend, but with the low over SE New England, I doubt we see a big one. I think that the best case scenario would be February 2020, which I know you guys didn’t bode well. But hey, I really hope I’m wrong. This is really an eastern Piedmont NW NC storm at best.
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I think it depends on the track and strength of the Miller A. Central and eastern NC do best when it is a cyclone that rapidly intensifies over the Atlantic, usually with a deformation band with the low 100 m or so off the coast, such as Jan 2000. Western Piedmont does best with weak tracking gulf lows that pull up more gulf moisture without bringing up too much WAA.
 
Stormdoc said:
I think it depends on the track and strength of the Miller A. Central and eastern NC do best when it is a cyclone that rapidly intensifies over the Atlantic, usually with a deformation band with the low 100 m or so off the coast, such as Jan 2000. Western Piedmont does best with weak tracking gulf lows that pull up more gulf moisture without bringing up too much WAA.
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Another thing with Miller A storms for the southern NC Piedmont is that the cut off can on the west edge can be very tight. I was living in in the southern tip of Cabarrus County near the Rocky River when the Crusher hit and my neighborhood got 10-12 inches while 10 miles to the southeast had 16-18” and 10 miles to the northwest had only 2-4”
 
Ollie Williams said:
As @Webberweather53 was saying, Miller A’s really don’t favor CLT. I can see a NW trend, but with the low over SE New England, I doubt we see a big one. I think that the best case scenario would be February 2020, which I know you guys didn’t bode well. But hey, I really hope I’m wrong. This is really an eastern Piedmont NW NC storm at best.
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Here's a table I made last year in one of my grad classes, using the data I linked in the spreadsheet available here: http://www.webberweather.com/upload...ndjfma_noaa_esrl_nao_pna_wpo_epo_indices.xlsx), where I broke down 3 types of winter storm that often impact NC in winter (Miller A, Hybrid (elements of both Miller A & B, often anafrontal type systems, & Miller B/CAD). I chose 5 long-term reliable stations across NC & far SE VA, went back to 1948, and looked only at storms where at least a majority (3 of 5) of these stations recorded at least 1" of snow, found 111 storms in total, and the results are pretty interesting:

Raleigh's bread & butter is obviously Miller A events as is Greensboro's & Charlotte usually gets shafted more relatively speaking. Interestingly, though neither Greensboro, Raleigh, or Charlotte received more snow overall for the 37 hyrbid/anafrontal/overrunning type winter storm cases I looked at (storms like Jan 1988 would be a good example) & Charlotte received as much snow as Raleigh for Miller B & hybrid type winter storms. Thus, an interesting thought emerges in that, if you were to somehow remove Miller A type winter storms from our winter storm climatology & be left only w/ hybrid/anafrontal & Miller B winter storms, Charlotte would have the same snow/ice climo as Raleigh, even though CLT sees ~50% (ish) less snow on average than RDU.

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Chazwin said:
Another thing with Miller A storms for the southern NC Piedmont is that the cut off can on the west edge can be very tight. I was living in in the southern tip of Cabarrus County near the Rocky River when the Crusher hit and my neighborhood got 10-12 inches while 10 miles to the southeast had 16-18” and 10 miles to the northwest had only 2-4”
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Best storm of my life not just because of the insane amount of snow but because it was a complete surprise. Fischel wouldn't cave until there was a foot on the ground and it was just getting started.
 
While CMC appeared lackluster, I like what it did by trending to gfs/nam with a slow N/S piece, next up is slowing it down more than allowing it to tilt better
 
If I was a betting guy I wouldn’t bet on any snow outside the mountains mon/Tuesday. But that comes with a disclaimer if there was a type of system that could surprise someone outside the mountains it’s this one. You got a low pressure to far off the coast to do much. You also have some northern energy trying to swoop down. You don’t need many adjustments to at least see flakes outside the mountains. It’s close


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I think a lot of the drier runs on the 12z suite is because the southern energy is now almost "between" phasing with the first N/S piece and phasing with the second N/S piece. Thus less amplification. Hopefully we can continue trending it slower/more separated from the first piece to get more interaction with the second.
 
RVD said:
I think a lot of the drier runs on the 12z suite is because the southern energy is now almost "between" phasing with the first N/S piece and phasing with the second N/S piece. Thus less amplification. Hopefully we can continue trending it slower/more separated from the first piece to get more interaction with the second.
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Exactly, clear trend on CMC to do that
 
Here's the 12z Ukie energy and precip. It's being stubborn with the first two pieces of energy and really wants to phase them. When the third catches up it does try to change over NE NC (sorry about the resolution on the energy one, not sure what happened):



 
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