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Wintry December 4-7 Winter Precip Chance

Ollie Williams said:
I took a look back at the January 2018 surprise storm. While the look is somewhat similar, definitely much less room for the wave to mature this time around. A lot would have to change before somebody gets more than flurries.
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Get the wave to tilt better and get a low to form is what we need. Again, similar look, but similarities don't show the whole story.gfs_z500_mslp_us_21.pngjanuary 2018.PNG
 
Ollie Williams said:
Get the wave to tilt better and get a low to form is what we need. Again, similar look, but similarities don't show the whole story.View attachment 55339View attachment 55340
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Yep overall trough axis needs to tilt more upright/neutral instead of being strongly positive/flat, that would slow the upper trough down and allow for more extensive QPF & potential for greater snow. It's a workable trend though being this is still ~4 ish days out.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yep overall trough axis needs to tilt more upright/neutral instead of being strongly positive/flat, that would slow the upper trough down and allow for more extensive QPF & potential for greater snow. It's a workable trend though being this is still ~4 ish days out.
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Didn't the 2018 Januastorm show up relatively late on the models? I remember Brad P. saying a day before the storm the my area would receive 1-2 inches. I actually got around 6.
 
Loganelliott99 said:
Didn't the 2018 Januastorm show up relatively late on the models? I remember Brad P. saying a day before the storm the my area would receive 1-2 inches. I actually got around 6.
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Yeah, I remember each NAM Run giving us higher, totals each time around. I recommend going through and looking through this thread:

Wintry - More SE Snow ? (1/16-1/18)

Someone can adjust the date if they need to.
southernwx.com
 
Ollie Williams said:
Yeah, I remember each NAM Run giving us higher, totals each time around. I recommend going through and looking through this thread:

Wintry - More SE Snow ? (1/16-1/18)

Someone can adjust the date if they need to.
southernwx.com
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I enjoy the fact that 1300 took the time to go back and delete all of their posts in that thread. Psycho much
 
Ollie Williams said:
Yeah, I remember each NAM Run giving us higher, totals each time around. I recommend going through and looking through this thread:

Wintry - More SE Snow ? (1/16-1/18)

Someone can adjust the date if they need to.
southernwx.com
Click to expand...
Like you said, looks fairly similar just not looking as juicy. Which, I suppose could change. Something to note is that that thread was started 4 days out
 
Ollie Williams said:
I do think that with this setup it would be very difficult to get all of the board in play, even NC in play is questionable.
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What do you think the chances we actually get accumulations outside the mountains are here? I'd have to imagine quite low
 
The last frame of the nam didn't look bad with more energy and a little farther west. I think it's still connected to initial system too much and will try to shear and stay positive tilt
 
SD said:
Still looks good for the weekend system in the mountains for you snow chasers/uplope guys

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Yeah I'm broke and have to work all the time, I need the goods to come to me.... not like those snow chasing high rollers.
 
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