Wow. That 540 line is really south and East.
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Wintry December 4-7 Winter Precip Chance
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Wow. That 540 line is really south and East.
Yeah, I definitely think you folks have a much greater chance of being on play than the rest of NC.
Ordinarily I wouldn't be too excited being on the southern edge of those snow accums but if this slows just a tick, almost a given the slp will be a little more NW and can get into a few hours of decent rates as 850's crash..... well I'm cautiously optimistic
17 out of 50 members with snow in extreme NE NC. 34% ain’t bad. It isn’t 100%, but it’s a start.
Yeah, me too.
AKQ thought it deserved a mention.
Gfs would be ideal, lol
@96 on the Euro still some decent moisture around and it's at this time thermals support a transition but not a ton of lift, light precip and can't overcome BL so just a renegade flake or two.
I’m so ready for my first official one of the season!
I'm just hoping we can get a few flakes at the end, or the rates are heavy enough to cool the lower atmosphere so we can get a brief period of snow.
Doable..... let's go!
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Lol classic SW Piedmont Miller A screw job. You gotta be either in the coastal plain, eastern Piedmont or close to the mtns/va border.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Best way to do that is amp the wave a little more, that would decelerate its forward progress
RVD
Meteorology Student
I've probably spent too much time following what will likely be a marginal event... but I do see a path for this to trend better with colder temps and more precip if we can thread the needle with the northern stream especially.
Something stood out to me on the 00z and 06z suites. We've been referring to the northern stream as one entity, but at the moment it's really two different waves, labelled here:
Note that this second piece still isn't ashore- and won't be until 00z today. That means there's still room for sizable shifts in model depictions. By Sunday evening, we see these two waves diving south with the southern ULL approaching. The GFS is alone with its depiction of the interaction between these 3 players:
Most 00z global models phase the southern ULL and the first wave, which I'm seeing as unideal (leads to all those weak precip/snow in VA Monday afternoon solutions). The second wave is what's a) bringing the cold air and b) has the potential to provide favorable forcing for a coastal cyclone, if it can tilt more.
The 00z and 06z GFS, on the other hand, let the first wave pass by, so that the southern wave interacts more directly with N/S wave 2. If we can get models to trend in the direction of the GFS (and a bit beyond), the surface low will have slower timing, which would hopefully be sufficient for our boundary layer problems, and will be stronger/wetter, hopefully tucked in closer to the cold air/without too much of the warm air issues that usually brings.
GFS vs. the world is... not a great bet. But we'll see; should have a better grasp on this second wave by 00z tonight or 12z tomorrow, once the second wave is onshore.
Something stood out to me on the 00z and 06z suites. We've been referring to the northern stream as one entity, but at the moment it's really two different waves, labelled here:
Note that this second piece still isn't ashore- and won't be until 00z today. That means there's still room for sizable shifts in model depictions. By Sunday evening, we see these two waves diving south with the southern ULL approaching. The GFS is alone with its depiction of the interaction between these 3 players:
Most 00z global models phase the southern ULL and the first wave, which I'm seeing as unideal (leads to all those weak precip/snow in VA Monday afternoon solutions). The second wave is what's a) bringing the cold air and b) has the potential to provide favorable forcing for a coastal cyclone, if it can tilt more.
The 00z and 06z GFS, on the other hand, let the first wave pass by, so that the southern wave interacts more directly with N/S wave 2. If we can get models to trend in the direction of the GFS (and a bit beyond), the surface low will have slower timing, which would hopefully be sufficient for our boundary layer problems, and will be stronger/wetter, hopefully tucked in closer to the cold air/without too much of the warm air issues that usually brings.
GFS vs. the world is... not a great bet. But we'll see; should have a better grasp on this second wave by 00z tonight or 12z tomorrow, once the second wave is onshore.
I pulled this from American. Dave Tolleris has a decent write up. Mods, if not allowed, feel free to remove.
www.americanwx.com
GOOD CHANCE OF 1ST LIGHT SNOW EVENT VA / nw NC/ MD DEL MONDAY DEC 7
I don't want to make too much of this situation for Monday in this area and I'm not prepared to say that I am barking at this point but the Monday event does have the potential to be a bit of a surprise This image shows two 500 mb maps. The map on the left is the 12z Thursday European model valid...
www.americanwx.com
NAM looks better in the respect that precip doesn't look like it's going to get to VA!
12z
06z
12z
06z
I pulled this from American. Dave Tolleris has a decent write up. Mods, if not allowed, feel free to remove.
GOOD CHANCE OF 1ST LIGHT SNOW EVENT VA / nw NC/ MD DEL MONDAY DEC 7
I don't want to make too much of this situation for Monday in this area and I'm not prepared to say that I am barking at this point but the Monday event does have the potential to be a bit of a surprise This image shows two 500 mb maps. The map on the left is the 12z Thursday European model valid...
I love the fact that I can go to the MA forum in American and not be disappointed. They ALWAYS have mental breakdowns that are epic and hilarious.
SE trend, and there you go!
Bullseye over my house!
I’ll get Nam’d before you!! Hahahahaha
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
That ain't bad
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah a setup like this plays right into your & @metwannabe's hands. Northern coastal plain is usually the place to be w/ Miller As & this one doesn't seem too different
First decent NAMing for me of the season, and per Pivotal, looks like its still snowing at the end of the run. Albeit, the 84hr NAM
smast16
Member
You never want to be the bullseye this far out.
And I thought sports or political rivals hated each other....
Jesus Christ. Someone schedule an intervention for that poor bastard. Maybe check on him and make sure his body isn’t equalizing to room temperature. Christ. I’ve never seen such hate filled writing flow so eloquently, yet so angrily at the same time. This guy walks around Target mumbling to himself and people avoid him. He probably kicks puppies into traffic, pushes down old people, and steals candy on Halloween from children. He also posts on conspiracy theory websites about how HARRP is controlling the weather around the DelMarVa just to purposefully keep him from seeing snow.
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I don't dislike this at all and although on the tail end but it's still snowing...... let's do this!
Dewpoint Dan
Member
I believe this is from Feb 15 not 19.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Another one
honestly i like where we are in clt at this point, leave room for the nw trend and ill deal with temp issues as long as we get precip. if the low is cranking offshore we will all have to deal with WAA so it is what it is. i have found i am much more at peace 3-4 days out out when we dont have the fantasy snow totals and instead we have trends in our favor.
As @Webberweather53 was saying, Miller A’s really don’t favor CLT. I can see a NW trend, but with the low over SE New England, I doubt we see a big one. I think that the best case scenario would be February 2020, which I know you guys didn’t bode well. But hey, I really hope I’m wrong. This is really an eastern Piedmont NW NC storm at best.
Neither do Miller B’s TBH. The energy transfers from the mountains to the coast and the Piedmont misses out all the time it seems. Miller B’s seem to work out better for my area if the transfer is farther off the coast.
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Trends are good. 3 days let’s get a Miller a crush job for parts of nc.
Dewpoint Dan
Member
Anyone going to chase the 2 feet of snow in New Hampshire ?
Hmmmm, so the nam was better because those 2 pieces sorta “missed” then the 3rd piece of Larger/broader N/S energy digged down And took on a tilt, I’d take that solution as it would be colder 
Not when the gfs shows a lot of snow along the TN/NC border. West Virginia looks good too. Those areas will be up to 3 feet in isolated spots and December is far from over.