Cmc is great for Va and the NC border counties.
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Wintry December 4-7 Winter Precip Chance
- Thread starter SD
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Logan Is An Idiot 02
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Canadian was way too warm.
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Jessy89
Member
CMC the northern piece is a bit to slow to work
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Gefs may not appear like much but it was better, but there’s temp issues I’m assuming on it 
Eh on to the Euro. Should hopefully see more consistency tomorrow at 12z these runs really all came to a similar idea tonight
Will be interesting to see what ukie shows soon
Clem282340
Member
There a chance that the upstate see fall or is this just a mountain storm
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Looks like there was about to be a 3 way, triple phaser!
4, 14, or 19 please.
Jessy89
Member
Slight chance I’d say where grasping for straws. But if rates are heavy enough few flakes in upstate is possible. But right now this system is all over the place
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I think people need to realize that in this case, the more NW and wound up the colder this storm gets. It can both pull more northerly winds south as well as cause more lift and cool the column faster with more precip. Also, this causes the trough axis to tilt more northward rather than the entire trough to go west, so this storm can really only go so far NW. temps will still be razor thin in the Piedmont areas as they almost always are, but I like the trends today.
Timing
that’s it
that’s it
Dewpoint Dan
Member
Why not just wait until a snowstorm comes to you ? I'm sure Southern Alabama will have plenty of chances this winter
Downeastnc
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accu35
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Yeah I'm ready for one here so I can slow down a littleWhy not just wait until a snowstorm comes to you ? I'm sure Southern Alabama will have plenty of chances this winter
Hard to imagine everyone is getting rained on with this look. But verbatim that is mostly the case..
This isn’t a high pressure setup, so it’s a little tricky. Not sure what we’re looking for here, honestly, but I’ll play. 
Downeastnc
Member
Yeah temps seem pretty good actually its more a QPF issue.....how much moisture is left after we get cold enough to flip to snow.....at the surface it will always be marginal....but aloft its all snow down to 925 and lower....
UK is a northern VA/mountains event 
I took a look at the ICON on weathernerds.org, which uses a much different precipitation algorithm. Maybe a more realistic look?
The GFS is similar but with less precip.
The GFS is similar but with less precip.
Little bit concerned given the CMC/EURO (12z)/UK favor VA
I hope JB isn't right.
RVD
Meteorology Student
Weathernerds is always fun to look at, but I remember them being a bit too enthusiastic about frozen ptype during December 2018.
Feels like there’s so many possible solutions, and we’re in nam range possibly at 06z, lol
RVD
Meteorology Student
Yeah, verbatim temps aloft aren't the issue in the same way they were in Dec. 2018 (shallow warm boundary layer here vs. warm nose) so maybe it's a better tool, at least to figure out where might see some flakes mix in. Precip is just too light on the current depiction of the GFS to do anything rate-driven. Coverage and amounts have definitely improved, but QPF over Raleigh is around 0.2" spread over 12 hours. Plenty of time for that to trend higher (and it probably will).
Don’t know how I feel about this run, that energy north of the GL, I just don’t know
That’s good! That’s the feature that wants to absorb the southern stream to phase the wave, and mature it. However, it can be a bad thing because it moderates how far north the storm goes. So far the Euro doesn’t look like the ICON.
Actually I take that back, I think the way the southern stream pieces phase determines how far north it goes. This setup is a mess!
Congrats Virginia
Should be interesting what that upper level trough does 
It happening during that day ruins it so much
Sigh 
I kind of have a hard time believing this is all rain.
oof
Doesn’t matter, any sort of insolation hurts in this type of extremely marginal setup
I’m not freaking out about the Euro, I think that as long as we continue the trends of amping up the precip. Northern NC at least could pull out with some flakes with temps that are workable.
Starting to get confusing.. shouldn't there be a separate thread for the Mon system? The first wave is no snow for anyone...