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Wintry December 4-7 Winter Precip Chance
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
I don't feel like the GFS will be that great, we need the southern wave to be slightly SW of the northern wave crashing down.
While I don't think it's as good as 18z, it's much better than 12z and 06z.
While I don't think it's as good as 18z, it's much better than 12z and 06z.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Rain Cold says, too bad it’s not January
RVD
Meteorology Student
Southern piece has slowed down yet again; the leading part of the northern wave is passing it by and it will interact with the second part. I think this is a long-term improvement, though I dunno how much better it will look verbatim.
Come to papa.... trending NW too early for my liking though
! 
?
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
How is there snow to the west and east but rain in the middle. I'm so confused lol. Would be very happy for eastern nc tho!
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These models are now 96 hours into range ... they must be sniffing out something right? I believe someone in the SE will see more flakes fly with this one
Positive takeaway here outside of the obvious snowfall in ENC is the widespread precip. Cold air is looking more and more to be the issue here
RVD
Meteorology Student
God-awful timing. Precip onset is at 18z. Slow that down to Monday night and we may be looking at something better.
West is closer to the upper low and better cold. East is better rates middle stinks
Soundings near Charlotte are supportive of snow if you get heavy enough precip this run, the areas that had higher rates got snow
Marginal temps, rate driven...heavy precip cools the column you get snow, lighter precip doesn't cool the column just rain
Timing timing timing
Definitely better than VA getting snow!
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Now time to turn our attention to the Canadian model
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Jessy89
Member
Call me crazy but I could see a line from Gainesville to Gsp to Charlotte north and west seeing some flakes.
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I remember very clearly the Canadian was the first to catch on to the February storm being a storm for the NC in its entirety!
Hate to say it, but I like where I stand living near Charlotte right now based off our history with the NW trend ?
RVD
Meteorology Student
This is great to see: storm is stronger and temps... improved! Look closely to see how wind barbs inland are far more northerly b/c of the 850 mb circulation
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Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
You right, buttttt wouldn't the nw trend cause warmer temps?Hate to say it, but I like where I stand living near Charlotte right now based off our history with the NW trend
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It could start to
CMC looks better, it actually has some solid agreement with the gfs right now at this range, after it could change 
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
GEFS is all over the place. Wtf
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I was just about to post this. The soundings look good into the eastern upstate. IF the moisture is there for good enough rates, it would be all snow for the Charlotte metro area.
Decent amount of spread among GEFS members as pertains to timing
Hmm, I guess maybe we truly have a shot with this one for at least a little something. I don’t like the temps, though. We’re flirting with disaster there, regardless of how much moisture we get. I’d still put MBY’s chances of seeing flakes at under 50/50 and sticking snow significantly lower than that, but I’m intrigued and ready to get my heart broken.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah if you want this to turn into CAD lol
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
No he is right this definitely has some potential haha
Lol, luckily I can take that back after today's 00z runs! I just got sick of chasing "close" setups.
God give the server the strength to make it
I like 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Oth, Charlotte usually gets shafted when it comes to coastal cyclones
Snow chase
Call me crazy and I don’t know what it would happen if it did, but it almost looks like that piece of energy over the Great Lakes wants to get pulled into this as well
it’s times like this when I’m thankful to live in the eastern rather than the western triad!