I want to see the base of that ULL slightly to the SE. Workable, but I’m not encouraged.
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Wintry December 4-7 Winter Precip Chance
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
We need to slow it down a bit to so we can have better timing for night, but yeah I’m not freaking out over this run, I still think on the backside many areas can squeeze out some snowflakes at worse given the crashing 925s and 850s...
Dewpoint Dan
Member
Mt Airy and Eden definitely have a shot.
I remember with the February 2020 event, the Euro was showing only light rain for central NC a few days out, before correcting towards the GFS later.
What’s the first wave? It’s all interconnected to one storm.
Yeah, it was really stubborn in that regard, though I don’t think that is the case considering the CMC/UKMET agrees with it.
Oh yeah, I forgot about that one, definitely going to the NE. We should just re-name this one to the December 8th chance.
staying up for the 06z nam, been asleep all day with a sinus infection ??
but anyways while the euro wasn’t the best, it was somewhat colder, need that N/S energy further south 
but anyways while the euro wasn’t the best, it was somewhat colder, need that N/S energy further south
FWIW here’s the 00z CMC ensembles. Mostly dry, but there are three really good members!
Yeah run-run delta was huge!staying up for the 06z nam, been asleep all day with a sinus infection ??
It was definitely a improvement from that somewhat horrific 12z run, now get it more and more south ! 
I’m thankful we have that low in SE New England. Without that, this thing wouldn’t have a chance!
Would have been nice if it could be a tad stronger or connected to the NATL wave train, the CAA would be better
This looks better so far, question is how that other piece of N/S energy will look once they try to interact and head East 
@Disco_Lemonade This is the temperature change from this run to the last run. The entire SE got colder.
This looks better, let’s see how the snow mean responds 
CLT screwjob lmaooo but improvement. 
Definitely a more realistic scenario with it being in VA where there’s more cold air, but we still got time
This is the type of thing that really irks me. If only we could get the timeline to shift to the night. Really is workable.
This still looks very doable I mean this is the only set of runs that have really started showing something now we got the classic precip trends which usually go up in days leading up ... that could mean higher rates and there for boom
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
06Z GFS good run for mtns and I-40 North.
Clem282340
Member
Are there a way for this to tend better for the upstate
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
I don’t see a cold air source pushing enough to get into the upstate. Still time to change but I just don’t see it right now. The closer you are to I-40 and/or the mtns, the better chance you have.
temps on wunderground have actually ticked a few degrees lower for Mon, Tues here in Chattanooga after tonight's model runs. I think their algorithm is GFS heavy though. Also moisture has ticked up a bit.
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Downeastnc
Member
06Z ICON.
6z GFS 10:1 at hour 96:
But RAH thinks rain:
The sensible weather related to the pattern described above will
feature increasing clouds and probability of rain Sun night-Mon,
with a considerably cloudier; cooler; and wetter Mon than previously-
forecast. While cool, and turning colder Mon night, the lowest
several thousand feet will remain too warm to support anything but
all rain until Mon night, by which time moisture associated with the
offshore low(s) will be lifting away. The remainder of the week is
forecast to be dry and mild, with temperatures moderating from upr
40s-lwr 50s on Tue, to upr 50s-around 60 by Thu, with the coldest
temperatures in the mid-upr 20s Wed morning.
The sensible weather related to the pattern described above will
feature increasing clouds and probability of rain Sun night-Mon,
with a considerably cloudier; cooler; and wetter Mon than previously-
forecast. While cool, and turning colder Mon night, the lowest
several thousand feet will remain too warm to support anything but
all rain until Mon night, by which time moisture associated with the
offshore low(s) will be lifting away. The remainder of the week is
forecast to be dry and mild, with temperatures moderating from upr
40s-lwr 50s on Tue, to upr 50s-around 60 by Thu, with the coldest
temperatures in the mid-upr 20s Wed morning.
Downeastnc
Member
MHX mentions there is a chance......
As the
low really cranks up Monday night, stronger CAA will develop,
with temps dropping into the 30s. Decent coverage of light rain
is expected to still be over the area, and while surface temps
likely remain above freezing it is worth mentioning that perhaps
some snow could mix in with the rain across the NW coastal
plain counties.
Maybe the moisture stays longer in the east in time for the cold to work in. Looks like the airmass will be coming down from the N/NW which would favor folks farther to the east for the "cold chasing" setup.
NCSNOW
Member
Speaking of timing. If Tonights event would speed up just 2 to 4 hrs I would be sitting in snow showers at the App v/s Louisianna game instead of mid 30s rain showers. Ugh!!!.
06z EPS:
NAM: VA storm
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
The absolute worst timing for ur neck of the woods. We just can't catch a break
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I think I’d be very encouraged if I lived in NE NC, and I wouldn’t give up either, but as of the way things are looking, chances drop off the further you get from the border.
I think this is VA’s revenge for the February storm.
Most models, like the NAM, have that double barrel low there at this point in time. I think if we can get that to consolidate quicker that would give better forcing and improve snow changeover further south
Like where? Towards [mention]metwannabe [/mention]or more towards me and KECG?