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Ostrich December

Webberweather53 said:
The stubborn a** Alaskan Vortex made whatever -EPO we were gonna see in the long range nearly non-existent. One day dip barely below zero is all that's left of this.



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Is there any chance get that AK vortex the retrograde a bit towards the Aleutians and maybe allow some heights to build in the west ? At least we would have a shot at some very transient +PNA towards late dec
Yeah I know it’s a huge longshot :(
Edit * and the cold would suck
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Is there any chance get that AK vortex the retrograde a bit towards the Aleutians and maybe allow some heights to build in the west ? At least we would have a shot at some very transient +PNA towards late dec
Yeah I know it’s a huge longshot :(
Edit * and the cold would suck
Click to expand...

Yeah, I wish I could offer some hope right now, but this tropical forcing look spells huge dumpster fire in late December & big AK vortex/Aleutian ridge. I was hoping we'd possibly get some -NAO to hold off this warm-up that's coming, but don't see that happening unfortunately.

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Webberweather53 said:
Yeah, I wish I could offer some hope right now, but this tropical forcing look spells huge dumpster fire in late December & big AK vortex/Aleutian ridge. I was hoping we'd possibly get some -NAO to hold off this warm-up that's coming, but don't see that happening unfortunately.

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What’s new at this point wrt tropical forcing, seems to always suck around this time the last few years, hopefully we can get a return of some more favorable TF in Jan
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
What’s new at this point wrt tropical forcing, seems to always suck around this time the last few years, hopefully we can get a return of some more favorable TF in Jan
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I guess if you want to hope for something or anything at this point, hope we see more central Indian Ocean convection vs Maritime Continent in late December, that would help pull back the AK vortex at least a little/enough to potentially get a repeat of this week's pattern. I'd certainly be modestly interested in that despite the similar issues w/ cold air, given we'd have about another 4-5F of climo to play with near the end of Dec

1607197236055.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Is there any chance get that AK vortex the retrograde a bit towards the Aleutians and maybe allow some heights to build in the west ? At least we would have a shot at some very transient +PNA towards late dec
Yeah I know it’s a huge longshot :(
Edit * and the cold would suck
Click to expand...

The 12z Euro control heard you apparently (you beat me to it, lol weenie). Still have a big Alaskan vortex & +NAO, but the wavelengths shortened a bit over the N Pacific & then bam we popped a +PNA and dislodged a nice chunk of cold air from Alaska and sent it hurdling our way.

+PNA ridges like what we're seeing this week, usually don't deliver absurdly cold, truly arctic masses into the SE US, but if we by some miracle found one in late December, things would be different actually because Alaska is going to be loaded w/ Siberian air thanks to next week's -WPO.



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Day 10 EPS

1607198608069.png

Screen Shot 2020-12-05 at 3.02.51 PM.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
The 12z Euro control heard you apparently (you beat me to it, lol weenie). Still have a big Alaskan vortex & +NAO, but the wavelengths shortened a bit over the N Pacific & then bam we popped a +PNA and dislodged a nice chunk of cold air from Alaska and sent it hurdling our way.

+PNA ridges like what we're seeing this week, usually don't deliver absurdly cold, truly arctic masses into the SE US, but if we by some miracle found one in late December, things would be different actually because Alaska is going to be loaded w/ Siberian air thanks to next week's -WPO.



View attachment 55850


Day 10 EPS

View attachment 55854

View attachment 55853
Click to expand...

Please be right


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Webberweather53 said:
The 12z Euro control heard you apparently (you beat me to it, lol weenie). Still have a big Alaskan vortex & +NAO, but the wavelengths shortened a bit over the N Pacific & then bam we popped a +PNA and dislodged a nice chunk of cold air from Alaska and sent it hurdling our way.

+PNA ridges like what we're seeing this week, usually don't deliver absurdly cold, truly arctic masses into the SE US, but if we by some miracle found one in late December, things would be different actually because Alaska is going to be loaded w/ Siberian air thanks to next week's -WPO.



View attachment 55850


Day 10 EPS

View attachment 55854

View attachment 55853
Click to expand...
Thats beautimus right there! Hopefully will come to fruition
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
find it interesting that the CFS is basically wash, rinse repeat, get Alaskan low with PNA ridge that slowly retrogrades NW, quickly becomes -EPO than -WPO, Then repeats with another gulf of Alaska/Alaskan low through the end of the run, did this like 3-4 times
Click to expand...
Lots of potential if the right setup can appear. I like seeing the cold in the northern US and Canada. We've seen some very warm temps in that location recently. Like you said we just need to get it funneled towards us.
 
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