Yeah that map probably won’t verify.... I can’t believe y’all fall for these model runs that show warm but bash it when they show cold. Makes no sense
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Ostrich December
- Thread starter SETNwx
- Start date
Christmas in Cuba looks nice.
Warm does tend to verify more often, but yeah.
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
See it doesn't look good. Somehow I'm a troll for saying that
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Pattern possibly coming up with a strong TPV/vortex near alaska Sorta reminds me of what we had in November, it took about 2.5/3 weeks to shake up this pattern 
Most signals point to warm this year. So, the odds of that type of map turning out to be correct are higher than the reverse, imo. But that doesn't mean it has to happen. It's 16 days out, so it probably will be wrong to an extent. And I certainly don't bash cold maps. I give those Likes. But whatev.
Did I mention you? No I’m just saying how people bash the cold runs but fall in love with the warm ones.... and you are right it is whatever because it’s 16 days out
You replied to his comment my guy lmao
Yeah, but there’s no point in posting that a model looks terrible in this thread, because it adds no value. Try the whamby thread, and you won’t get complaints.
Let’s jump on the EPS hype train 
Alaska is just chillin' our Vodka cold come mid January.
Broken024
Member
Fight!
Easy to see the differences here on the controls (very similar to there ensemble suite), trop forcing is more centered around the IO on the EPS c which is better than the GEFS c maritime continent solution 
ATLwxfan
Member
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yep we get more Indian Ocean convection like the EPS shows, we might open the door for +PNA. If we can find one of those and get the ridge in about the same spot maybe a little further NW of where it is this week, we’ll basically have the equivalent air mass entering the pattern of what we see w/ big +TNH/-EPO looks. Pattern is teetering on the edge of total disaster & something really good, but if we can avoid the look on the GEFS, we might be okay
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
If we can just shorten the wavelengths briefly, we’re gonna have some ridiculously cold air getting thrown at someone in the east-central us
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
December looks to be about average thru mid-month (analysis + 7-day GFS forecast).
Huge win considering every December since 2010 has been above average in the SE US, not a single below average one here in the Carolinas in a decade. Would be nice to get some late month +PNA w/ to discharge a chunk of the absurdly cold air that will be sitting over Alaska & change our fortunes for once
Huge win considering every December since 2010 has been above average in the SE US, not a single below average one here in the Carolinas in a decade. Would be nice to get some late month +PNA w/ to discharge a chunk of the absurdly cold air that will be sitting over Alaska & change our fortunes for once
iGRXY
Member
Whenever he says something I just assume the exact opposite is going to happen. He’s like 0/25 on opinions and statements.
With a -WPO funneling in cold into AK, I wonder if the airmass would be reminiscent of 2018 if we were to indeed get a EPS like solution, and also wonder if the PNA ridge would want to retrograde over time, but that’s getting into the super LR
iGRXY
Member
I will say, we are getting ahead of ourselves based on the 384 hr GEFS. Granted the Euro and EPS are struggling as well but the GFS and its ensembles are awful beyond 4 days. We are eventually going to warm up because look where we live but quoting the 16 day GFS or GEFS isn’t the smartest thing to do.