Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Canadian just went boom
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Ostrich December
- Thread starter SETNwx
- Start date
You want that trough to press down further south for better confluence so yeah I think that’s what you mean
The confluence... 
Keep the trend going. I don’t hate it. Nice nanner high this run as well ? 
Substantial improvement from 6z on the GFS. Just look at that high pressure
A couple of thoughts from just an average joe trying to become a meteorologist ...
1. I know we’re praying on the models going colder as we close in on this system but that high pressure has me puzzled.. it’s only 1034 give or take respectively and she’s very far north to really give CAD areas a good CAD event and some good reinforcing cold air.. we would need that high a lot further south to help us out the way we want.
2. Honestly it’s been a really long time since at least for my area (triangle) has seen a significant ice storm event .. I think it’s because things usually turn to sleet around here but would be interesting to see but obviously I don’t wanna manifest trees down and power outages cause no one likes that.
3. I do at least like the trends of where we are headed I just don’t know if we will have enough time to grab that high pressure to move as far south as it needs .. one thing going for us is the wave being weaker on its initial push and then it’s transfer to the coast is definitely beneficial to CAD areas .. minimizes the eroding a low pressure west of us can do to a CAD signal
Anyway let’s real this in hopefully! SLEET STORM BABY
1. I know we’re praying on the models going colder as we close in on this system but that high pressure has me puzzled.. it’s only 1034 give or take respectively and she’s very far north to really give CAD areas a good CAD event and some good reinforcing cold air.. we would need that high a lot further south to help us out the way we want.
2. Honestly it’s been a really long time since at least for my area (triangle) has seen a significant ice storm event .. I think it’s because things usually turn to sleet around here but would be interesting to see but obviously I don’t wanna manifest trees down and power outages cause no one likes that.
3. I do at least like the trends of where we are headed I just don’t know if we will have enough time to grab that high pressure to move as far south as it needs .. one thing going for us is the wave being weaker on its initial push and then it’s transfer to the coast is definitely beneficial to CAD areas .. minimizes the eroding a low pressure west of us can do to a CAD signal
Anyway let’s real this in hopefully! SLEET STORM BABY
Only problem I see is the CMC with a Miller B-ish transfer off the Savannah coast. These transfers usually tend to happen off the NC coast in my experience. But what do I know.
It keeps improving..... 
ATLwxfan
Member
Frustrating to see a nice cold push south that just doesn’t translate east. I suppose we will settle for a cool rain.
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I mean I’ll take a weenie run inside d7. I’m all for it 
Avalanche
Member
Current temp and dp at onset?
13 is my only hope lol!
SWVAwxfan
Member
Looks like a good hit for my area.
SWVAwxfan
Member
Columbia being right on the line rarely works out. Coming from a 45 years living there. This would be a classic Winnsboro, Newberry ice storm.
I guess we better be posting snow and ICE accumulation maps with this lil guy .. anyone have cmc ice Accums?
Worth nothing the CMC is cold biased so it would probably be more ice than what it showed
GEFS ptype average. ?
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Indian Trail winning.You'd never believe it but the CMC has a >1" of ice
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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12z NAM
JB says on his update that he expects a northern trend on the models...
Expect things to get better folks!
Expect things to get better folks!
?
RVD
Meteorology Student
The trends over SE Canada aren't the only thing improving on recent model runs: we're also getting a decent south/more N/S separation trend of our actual system, especially at the 850 mb level:
The position and intensity of this now-cutoff feature is incredibly important for our 850 mb temperatures. The further south and weaker this feature is, even while over the middle of the country, the better our 850 mb temperatures will be. Look at the wind barbs over our area north through the Ohio Valley-- southerly winds are weakening and/or turning easterly or even northerly. With the aid of increasing confluence (look at those heights over the NE drop), this will help prevent WAA or even drive some CAA before the arrival of the system. So keep that trend up and our onset air mass will be colder. The CMC, for instance, has this cutoff low weaker than the GFS and over N Texas, hence the good run.
Even if we can get this trend to continue, we're not going to be able to completely get rid of this feature. The best case scenario is that we get enough of a shift for a snow onset in west-central NC/upstate SC, but as this moves NW, a changeover to ice in favored CAD areas would ensue.
The position and intensity of this now-cutoff feature is incredibly important for our 850 mb temperatures. The further south and weaker this feature is, even while over the middle of the country, the better our 850 mb temperatures will be. Look at the wind barbs over our area north through the Ohio Valley-- southerly winds are weakening and/or turning easterly or even northerly. With the aid of increasing confluence (look at those heights over the NE drop), this will help prevent WAA or even drive some CAA before the arrival of the system. So keep that trend up and our onset air mass will be colder. The CMC, for instance, has this cutoff low weaker than the GFS and over N Texas, hence the good run.
Even if we can get this trend to continue, we're not going to be able to completely get rid of this feature. The best case scenario is that we get enough of a shift for a snow onset in west-central NC/upstate SC, but as this moves NW, a changeover to ice in favored CAD areas would ensue.
RVD
Meteorology Student
Take two?
CMC actually looks interesting after the miller B 
GFS was like a mile off of a monster nor’easter for the entire east coast in fantasy land! .. still good for New England but we all missed out
The only difference was a +PNA and a trough over Colorado
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BufordWX
Member
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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It looks robust! The whole next 10 days , look super active across most of the US
Round Oak Weather
Member
With these trends do you think we could see the CAD push into SC and GA?
It’s more unlikely there, although the upstate of SC definitely has a bigger shot, depends on confluence/storm track/CAD
Jessy89
Member
Big thing here is the cold bias the cmc has. We need the GFS to come on board in some way. Because the CMC has tricked us before. However I am hopeful
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Cmc is trash for years on ice maps I repeat it every year. The issue is people want answers and we won’t have them until NAM comes into closer range and picks up on temps east of the mountains. Low level dry air will bring cold wintery precip. It’s hidden and will reveal itself in time. Euro does ok but NAM is better.
Yeah I bet the realistic scenario on the CMC is ice for 85/77 and north with snow Mainly in the mountains, it does have the best solution however
CMCE 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Im surprised how many snow members there are. Thought it would be more icy than snow.