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Ostrich December

Myfrotho704_ said:
UK is really close to some big ice View attachment 57000View attachment 57001
its trending to more and more confluence, (worth noting it struggles with shallow cold air and that’s listed as one of its issues) View attachment 57003
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Can we just stop discussing anything the Crazy Uncle Canadian says? Asking for a friend. :p

One of the things we see with this storm late next week (whether or not it actually becomes anything) is the favorable trends we see. Rather than a NW trend, we get everything pushing south with more confluence. I think that has a lot to do with the blocking/-NAO. Interesting topic for debate on which teleconnection we need more, but there's no question that it's very helpful to us down here. I've forgotten what it's like.
 
One big note is we are already showing ICE on most of the models and are just a few degrees off at face value on the ones that don't physically show ICE. These things always trend Colder as you can clearly see the cold press getting stronger and further south. One other thing to note is this doesn't appear to be a 2-3" rainfall maker but instead something on the verge of 1/2 - 1". That absolutely helps with ICE build up with the lighter precip. Especially sense if you converted those tempes to what they would likely be as of right now (Upstate - 30-32 degrees, Piedmont NC - 28-31 degrees) that is going to really help with more ICE build up.
 
SnowNiner said:
Can we just stop discussing anything the Crazy Uncle Canadian says? Asking for a friend. :p

One of the things we see with this storm late next week (whether or not it actually becomes anything) is the favorable trends we see. Rather than a NW trend, we get everything pushing south with more confluence. I think that has a lot to do with the blocking/-NAO. Interesting topic for debate on which teleconnection we need more, but there's no question that it's very helpful to us down here. I've forgotten what it's like.
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Yeah we use to get the -EPO but no -NAO, so we had to time a 50/50 low at a perfect time with a ss wave, with blocking the high moves a bit slower and confluence is better as you said
 
Ollie Williams said:
Probably nothing special, but some onset Ice.
View attachment 57013
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It's pulling the costal trough and secondary too far west thus scouring out the residual CAD. You can see from this map the sfc low track should be from E of SAV to just inland of HSE but its got it near 95 on the next panel. Euro loves to charge the coastal front inland in all seasons
 
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SD said:
It's pulling the costal trough and secondary too far west thus scouring out the residual CAD. You can see from this map the sfc low track should be fun W of SAV to just inland of HSE but its got it near 95 on the next panel. Euro loves to charge the coastal front inland in all seasons
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How often does this verify?


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Jessy89 said:
Yeah euro more realistic. CMC showing ice outside NC into SC is a cold bias.


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Euro is farther west with the sfc low thus warmer.. The cmc track is a great one in a miller B scenario to keep the US1 west corridor as IP/Zr changing ending as snow
 
SD said:
Pics please
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Y’all will be six of snow pics by Sunday!
Going to drive to Madison WI tonight, should be some good snow there, I think Dubuque will be some of the higher totals in Iowa! Hi res models look ok
 
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Jessy89 said:
Yeah euro more realistic. CMC showing ice outside NC into SC is a cold bias.


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EURO is driving a LP into a CAD Dome which never happens and is very typical of global models to do. They tend to drive LP directly into the CAD instead of pivoting around it which is why you constantly see a changeover that never actually happens.. CMC, although with a Cold bias, is more realistic in these situations. CAD always overperforms and is always colder by as much as 5-8 degrees in some cases compared to the globals. If this was a snowfall situation then the EURO would likely be right but when it comes to CAD the CMC actually is a stronger model due to its cold bias which it generally gets much closer to the actual surface temperatures. Upstate SC and the Piedmont of NC are very much on alert for a pretty significant ICE storm and you're seeing the globals catch on. GEFS and the CMC ensembles are showing ICE well into the upstate already.
 
iGRXY said:
EURO is driving a LP into a CAD Dome which never happens and is very typical of global models to do. They tend to drive LP directly into the CAD instead of pivoting around it which is why you constantly see a changeover that never actually happens.. CMC, although with a Cold bias, is more realistic in these situations. CAD always overperforms and is always colder by as much as 5-8 degrees in some cases compared to the globals. If this was a snowfall situation then the EURO would likely be right but when it comes to CAD the CMC actually is a stronger model due to its cold bias which it generally gets much closer to the actual surface temperatures. Upstate SC and the Piedmont of NC are very much on alert for a pretty significant ICE storm and you're seeing the globals catch on. GEFS and the CMC ensembles are showing ICE well into the upstate already.
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I think by Saturday/Sunday models should fully lock in on this system. And we will have a clearer idea.


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iGRXY said:
EURO is driving a LP into a CAD Dome which never happens and is very typical of global models to do. They tend to drive LP directly into the CAD instead of pivoting around it which is why you constantly see a changeover that never actually happens.. CMC, although with a Cold bias, is more realistic in these situations. CAD always overperforms and is always colder by as much as 5-8 degrees in some cases compared to the globals. If this was a snowfall situation then the EURO would likely be right but when it comes to CAD the CMC actually is a stronger model due to its cold bias which it generally gets much closer to the actual surface temperatures. Upstate SC and the Piedmont of NC are very much on alert for a pretty significant ICE storm and you're seeing the globals catch on. GEFS and the CMC ensembles are showing ICE well into the upstate already.
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Also as was mentioned yesterday the Euro tends to be a little too warm in CAD setups at this lead time, So usually you can expect to take about 4-5 degrees off what the model is showing
 
Loganelliott99 said:
What look would we be heading into?
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Well I guess it technically still be a Miller B but the more you can push it south the more you can displace the parent south where it transfers over Tn or at the edge of the wedge in North Ga which would mean less mid level warming and a southward shift in the freezing/frozen precip.

I don't think there is enough in the pattern to push everything far enough south to get development across the south that rounds the corner in Miller A fashion
 
I think we're still wanting to watch the ensembles for an event perhaps 6 days out. Look at what the mean shows, especially the EPS. GEFS I think shows some frozen fun for the Carolina piedmont, perhaps EPS still does too. Nice to see the operational runs start peppering in some light hits to back up the ensembles.

It doesn't look like it's much of a big deal at this point though unless we really see the energy dig and the confluence sink significantly more. But it'll be a nice appetizer considering its still December. I wonder if this exact setup in January would yield a more potent winter storm.
 
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SD said:
Well I guess it technically still be a Miller B but the more you can push it south the more you can displace the parent south where it transfers over Tn or at the edge of the wedge in North Ga which would mean less mid level warming and a southward shift in the freezing/frozen precip.

I don't think there is enough in the pattern to push everything far enough south to get development across the south that rounds the corner in Miller A fashion
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Likely what it would do is round the CAD farther into NE Georgia and into the Northern Midlands.
 
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