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Ostrich December

The 18z EPS had a fairly good increase for the first system. Mainly in the MA. SMH, I’m going to be mad if they pull off two storms!
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Loganelliott99 said:
He's very confident in a storm occuring. Lol

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srry u negative. I said greater than 20% chance for snow/ice per van Denton. Which is high for several days out. It’s for Greensboro airport and uses ensemble blends. I would say odds actually increase based on 18z euro ensembles. I stand my ground but will treat u nicely I hope u have a merry Christmas
 
BirdManDoomW said:
srry u negative. I said greater than 20% chance for snow/ice per van Denton. Which is high for several days out. It’s for Greensboro airport and uses ensemble blends. I would say odds actually increase based on 18z euro ensembles. I stand my ground but will treat u nicely I hope u have a merry Christmas
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I love your confidence. Let's hope we can see a winter storm!

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Myfrotho704_ said:
Would you rather have a -EPO with a +NAO/+AO with 50/50 lows that escape out due to no blocking orrrr a +EPO/-NAO/-AO thats often warmer
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I’d rather have a +PNA first and foremost. The correlation to cold and also to snow is higher for that for ATL and many other areas of the SE US vs any other one index.
 
Mr. Golf said:
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Reduced MJO activity is actually mostly a favorable thing vs high amp MJO for much of the SE US for cold, including ATL for sure. Also, just about every major ZR at ATL back to 2/1979 was when the MJO was weak (actually inside the circle just about every time). However, going against the chance for a major ZR there is that ENSO is not weak.
 
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RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
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This is only the GFS, not sure what the Euro has. But until we get the stubborn MJO to not want to hang on the right of the circle in winter we'll struggle to get cold. It may want to head to ph 7 but who knows? I also see just as many wanting to loop right back to crap in 4 and 5. The NAO is saving our ass from torching right now but can't supply the cold we need. The Pac has to be somewhat favorable..
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Well more than the longterm average of number of days of MJO phases 4 and 5 are favored this winter due to La Niña as well as a very warm Maritime Continent (Indonesia and vicinity), which is where 4/5 is actually located. That likely explains why the MJO is hanging out there so long this month. This includes 4/5 inside the circle.
 
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Rain Cold said:
Is this good? Asking for a friend.

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“The fuller the tub, the bigger the slosh.”

-JB

Cold bottled at the pole. We battled that all of last winter. Looks like we’ll be begging for a sudden stratospheric warming event to dislodge it sometime in February if we’re lucky. At least we have something to track.
 
My problem with the icon is why it’s amping up The SW and slowing it down so much in the central US, that just gives time for our high pressure to leave 8C5F87A7-6DB6-4572-B163-FC48D09E7940.png
 
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First strip alert!!
 
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