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Ostrich December

BackThePack said:
you (flip) flop more than a UNC point guard.
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Long range weather forecasting is hard. I did my best to lay out my thoughts earlier today and provide reasoning beyond simply just looking at the models. There’s a good reason not many people are willing to forecast 2-3+ weeks out even in a very general sense
 
Stephenb888 said:
How is this so when just earlier today people on here were talking about it being super cold all through December?
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In defense of Webber, he never said cold throughout. He said that the most likely scenario was cold until the solstice, then raging warmth. He said there was a less likely chance for cold until the end of the month if a stronger -NAO develops.
 
Will Rossman said:
In defense of Webber, he never said cold throughout. He said that the most likely scenario was cold until the solstice, then raging warmth. He said there was a less likely chance for cold until the end of the month if a stronger -NAO develops.
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In my defense, I also pinged HM and he also doesn’t know what’s going to happen beyond mid December so I’m not alone in my approach haha
 
Stephenb888 said:
Did one just develope?
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The most significant bout of negative nao is lurking next week imo, but details regarding its duration and intensity remain to be seen. NAO predictability is so dependent on individual cyclonic wave breaks in the N Atlantic jet that are rarely if ever easily predictable beyond 5-6 days which adds a ton of uncertainty thereafter
 
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