Ostrich December

[Webberweather53]

Its interesting. We sort of sacrifice the Monday system due to the TPV sinking south and shortening the amplitude of the ridge through the rockies for a better potential in the D7+ range or am I totally off base

Possibly, the TPV sinking further south in Canada inside day 5-6 is opening up the door for the entire kitchen sink to get thrown at the CONUS in the long-range.

 

[SD]

I feel your pain.

I wouldn't punt this one yet. Now if the 0z runs continue to go more toward the progressive look then it might be time to get off the train but it's not that far away

 

[SD]

An absurdly cold, Siberian-origin air mass is knocking on the lower 48's doorstep.

View attachment 56586

Bathtub sloshed.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Second system is a no go but man that’s some ridiculously cold air being Thrown down

 

[Webberweather53]

Bathtub sloshed.

?

 

[BlueRidgeFolklore]

We all know what happened in December 2010

Tell me about it. We were shacked up so long, I had a son born that fall.........

 

[SD]

?

View attachment 56588

I was literally about to post that I would be shocked if we didn't try to get something going in the D7-10 period on the euro

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I wouldn't punt this one yet. Now if the 0z runs continue to go more toward the progressive look then it might be time to get off the train but it's not that far away

Yeah I agree, the gefs which is normally follows its more progressive OP improved quite a bit with the first system

 

[SnowNiner]

An absurdly cold, Siberian-origin air mass is knocking on the lower 48's doorstep.

View attachment 56586

We just desperately need delivery....and that's what we wait on....

 

[Ollie Williams]

This is a pretty good GEFS run through 384hrs!

 

[Snowfan]

This is a pretty good GEFS run through 384hrs!
View attachment 56589View attachment 56590

Member 22 please!

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

?

View attachment 56588

That -AO tho ????

 

[Webberweather53]

A 1053 over the North Pole. Bring it to me

 

[SD]

Want to play a game

 

[Webberweather53]

This is a pretty good GEFS run through 384hrs!
View attachment 56589View attachment 56590
View attachment 56592

Lol damn we're trending towards those historical +EPO/-AO/-NAO composites.

 

[Ollie Williams]

Well, if we get this pattern to verify, nobody can complain there isn't cold in Canada!

 

[Webberweather53]

This big cyclone over the upper midwest is fixing to drop the motherload into the CONUS

 

[SD]

Good lord that's depressing

 

[Tarheel1]

This is a pretty good GEFS run through 384hrs!
View attachment 56589View attachment 56590
View attachment 56592

Can you zoom up and out on this?

 

[Ollie Williams]

Can you zoom up and out on this?

 

[CaryWx]

Looks like we're going to get cold coming into Christmas for sure

 

[SD]

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

View attachment 56601

-30’s up there already ? Source region getting primed

 

[wxdaniel]

It’s happening

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Stormdoc]

In my experience when we starti seeing these TPVs trend south, it takes the models a few days to grasp it and then boom, the cold starts showing up quick

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[Webberweather53]

View attachment 56601

Release the Kraken

 

[SD]

Look at these dews

 

[Webberweather53]

Look at these dews
View attachment 56605

Talk about cold & dry in Canada

 

[Tarheel1]

View attachment 56600

Ensemble mean of 10-14”??

 

[Myfrotho704_]

00z
12z

 

[SD]

Talk about cold & dry in Canada

I wonder if Jan 18 was the last time we had below 0 dews

 

[SD]

Ensemble mean of 10-14”??

It's coming for you

 

[Somosdel]

Looks like we're going to get cold coming into Christmas for sure
[/QUOTE

But yesterday we were talking about shorts and golf for xmas.......
LOL

 

[Webberweather53]

The TPV is sinking further south on the EPS than the previous run thus far thru day 6.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

More suppressed/flat on the EPS for sure this run

 

[SD]

---------------------------------Ao. Pretty awesome to see that yourdon't need a SSW to have a big tpv disruption and even just disturbing the pv can't create enough instability to break up the buzzsaw

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[Myfrotho704_]

EPS/GEFS improving is making me not worry to much about the OPs

 

[Webberweather53]

---------------------------------AoView attachment 56611

Wonder if we're ever gonna see mid January 1940 levels of -AO ever again (of course that came during a SSWE).

MSLP-based AO index nearly cracked 7 standard deviations below normal on January 16, 1940


Here's the z500 & surface temp anomalies from 20CRv3.


All hell broke loose about a week-10 days after this insane -AO w/ widespread sub-zero and single digit temps across the SE US following that epic storm on Jan 23-24 1940 (which screwed over RDU of course lol)