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Ostrich December

Nick_boynton_ said:
How would you say the possible weakening of the PV could set us up later in winter? I’ve been seeing posts that some models are really trying to mix the PV up .. will this help us by mid December or later down the line in January? I know there is a lag time between a weakened PV or even a split of the PV to how is translates cold air around the world.. obviously a weak PV gives anyone a shot at seeing that cold air so I suppose it’s more of a coin flip right now as to whether we can get those effects to help counter act the Nina pattern .. but interested in your thoughts on the topic.
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It very well could but in roughly half of cases w/ a sudden stratospheric warming during a La Nina, the pattern gets worse not better after an SSWE, so I'd say your assumption of it being a coin flip whether a SSWE actually helps us at all here is probably pretty accurate.

Figure 5 from Butler et al (2017) https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/9/63/2017/) shows how the patterns following SSWEs in La Ninas are not significantly different from ones prior to its development (notice the lack of stippling here). The same can not be said in El Ninos though

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Webberweather53 said:
It very well could but in roughly half of cases w/ a sudden stratospheric warming during a La Nina, the pattern gets worse not better after an SSWE, so I'd say your assumption of it being a coin flip whether a SSWE actually helps us at all here is probably pretty accurate.

Figure 5 from Butler et al (2017) https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/9/63/2017/) shows how the patterns following SSWEs in La Ninas are not significantly different from ones prior to its development (notice the lack of stippling here). The same can not be said in El Ninos though

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This paper is extremely interesting.. reminds me that I need to get on the habit of reading one of these a day..
 
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