Tropospheric polar vortex.
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Ostrich December
- Thread starter SETNwx
- Start date
I don’t think we’ve seen a -NAO of this magnitude since 2010 appear on modeling.....
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
We all know what happened in December 2010
The gfs wasn't a classic but it wasn't that far off. Should be a fun week or so coming up watching how the north atlantic and the ridge north of AK evolve and how they impact the pattern across the conus. We could easily walk away with some cold rains or even a severe threat or sneak something through and get a respectable winter event.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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JB is GOD! Happy Festivus! ?
I'll take. If we can manage to hold it for awhile we'll score eventually.
Jrips2710
Member
Euro just started. Here we go folks
Can we get some retrogression of the vortex like this please ? Thanks 
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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@ SD! Ima try my best ! Looking brighter and further S
Dude that would be awesome if you get to see it bucket list for me
When was the last time we saw this even modeled in the cold season?
Fountainguy97
Member
Agreed I'm just excited to see some of the players on the field. The gfs wasn't that bad either by day 9. It's got a weak 50/50 a little nao ridging, a weak western ridge, positive heights north of ak, and a short wave ridge over the NE to help hold the high in. The wheels may fall off in the future but it sure beats some of the turdburgers we've had to eat since Jan 19
NCSNOW
Member
Ol Roy want have to worry about issuing a stay at home order, curfew lol
iGRXY
Member
That's a strong CAD on the CMC. Temperatures absolutely would be colder and we all know how the models love to push lows directly into CAD which never happens. Can't tell you how many times we had a forecast for ZR to change to rain and we get a sleet storm changing over to ZR here.
NCSNOW
Member
out to 72 on the euro
Worse off the bat. We need the wave over the NW to bet further south, otherwise, it won't dig much.
euro a little bit worse so far compared to last night, but let’s see what it does 
BufordWX
Member
Even the Euro is locked in with that snow in OKC. I’m looking forward to returning there next month. Maybe I will cash in!
This is still gonna be pretty close, tilt just isn’t the best 
Yeah, we need it to dig more and cut off.
SnowNiner
Member
Yeah I'm just not seeing the storm signal for next week at this point. No solid cold signal that we usually need for a winter storm east of the mountains in the carolinas. Ensembles are varied from cool to warm. Likely the not yet backed up AK vortex of doom's doing. That's probably not going to cut it, especially in December IMO. But who knows, maybe it will head west and we get colder.
I'm more excited about keeping a sustained -AO and -NAO to play with and hoping to see that continue long term into January. That's a huge deal that we haven't had in a decade if we can actually make it real. We're likely to get a PNA here and there for occasional delivery, and when we do we'd be set up very nicely I think.
I'm more excited about keeping a sustained -AO and -NAO to play with and hoping to see that continue long term into January. That's a huge deal that we haven't had in a decade if we can actually make it real. We're likely to get a PNA here and there for occasional delivery, and when we do we'd be set up very nicely I think.
ATLwxfan
Member
I visited OKC last year. Loved it out there. Spread out and didn’t seem overly crowded. The bombing memorial was a site to behold.
Wait a minute...
925s look good
925s look good
Tilt is just to poor, rates are so light
JLL1973
Member
the euro was a no go for us here in the midsouth. looks like the gfs is going to win this one
C'mon man, rain again. Very nice at the upper levels, just too warm at the sfc.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The AK vortex is backing SW towards the Aleutians over successive runs on the long range GEFS, pumping the heights in the west >>> +PNA. Unlike our recent +PNA, this one has the potential to inject some seriously cold air into the east-central US given the Siberian air mass that will be parked over the NW territories and Alaska next week. We just need a few strong Rossby Waves in the right place at the right time to send pieces of it hurtling in our direction
Need a lot of cold. Otherwise best we can do is onset ice to rain. And mostly Wilkes.
Not mad at this, while I do want a pretty storm showing up, it’s not out of reach here and at least it’s not becoming a warm cutter, lol 
NCSNOW
Member
Never closes off: 0z verse 12z end
Euro is dampening the ridge in the west more and more. Less digging of the shortwave, more positive tilt and shearing. Crappy dynamics and marginal cold mean another rain with the potential to end as a few flurries. Will be interesting to see if this trend stops or reverses at 0z
I agree, It really doesn't take much with more stream separation. While models agree that it isn't likely, it's not far fetched.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Like the GEFS, notice the tropospheric polar vortex over north-central Canada is sinking further south w/ every ECMWF run of late.
Its interesting. We sort of sacrifice the Monday system due to the TPV sinking south and shortening the amplitude of the ridge through the rockies for a better potential in the D7+ range or am I totally off base
Usmeagle2005
Member
I feel your pain.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
An absurdly cold, Siberian-origin air mass is knocking on the lower 48's doorstep.
We can’t even get @Rain Cold to make an appearance in the discussion thread. That’s how I already know it’s going to rain.