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Ostrich December

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Suppressed but something to watch the ingredients is there


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Webberweather53 said:
Historically, in -NAO/-AO/+EPOs, the +EPO backs off some and the AK vortex retrogrades towards the Aleutians, opening up the door for +PNA

I played around w/ a few composites, I think this is as close as I can get at a monthly scale for the hemispheric scale pattern in a -AO/-NAO/+EPO during Dec.

I even used an older, cooler base period to try and bias the temperature composite warmer but it's still arguably vodka cold.

View attachment 56498




View attachment 56499
Click to expand...

Fwiw, December 1950 can be best described as a complete flizzard fest in east-central NC, at least 6 separate events during the month.

Five total events in Greensboro, four in Charlotte, & three at RDU. I'm sure w/ a few minor synoptic-scale tweaks, we could have ended up w/ at least one big that month.




December 3-4 1950 NC Snowmap.png


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Webberweather53 said:
Historically, in -NAO/-AO/+EPOs, the +EPO backs off some and the AK vortex retrogrades towards the Aleutians, opening up the door for +PNA

I played around w/ a few composites, I think this is as close as I can get at a monthly scale for the hemispheric scale pattern in a -AO/-NAO/+EPO during Dec.

I even used an older, cooler base period to try and bias the temperature composite warmer but it's still arguably vodka cold.

View attachment 56498




View attachment 56499
Click to expand...
I made a 500mb composite of all the +NAO, +EPO, -WPO winter storms we've seen in December.
Aanomaly 16.png
'1950-12-28 00z', '1969-12-25 00z', '1969-12-26 00z', '1970-12-29 00z', '1970-12-30 00z', '1970-12-31 00z', '1975-12-25 00z', '1981-12-25 00z', '1988-12-12 00z', '2003-12-04 00z', '2003-12-05 00z', '2003-12-14 00z', '2009-12-18 00z', '2018-12-09 00z'
 
RVD said:
Hmmm... maybe something else to watch further down the road, too.
View attachment 56497
Click to expand...
I’ve really been interested in the 17-21st time period for about the last week. Indicies look good during that period and the GFS and GEFS have both on and off had something come up.
 
Ollie Williams said:
I made a 500mb composite of all the +NAO, +EPO, -WPO winter storms we've seen in December.
View attachment 56517
'1950-12-28 00z', '1969-12-25 00z', '1969-12-26 00z', '1970-12-29 00z', '1970-12-30 00z', '1970-12-31 00z', '1975-12-25 00z', '1981-12-25 00z', '1988-12-12 00z', '2003-12-04 00z', '2003-12-05 00z', '2003-12-14 00z', '2009-12-18 00z', '2018-12-09 00z'
Click to expand...

Nice work! That's a pretty stout Miller B/CAD look there but no guarantee of course. Most of the real big events in that cluster of dates plastered climatologically favored areas of far NW piedmont & mountains and left areas further SE shafted. (Dec 25-26 1969, Dec 25 1981, Dec 18-19 2009)
 
Webberweather53 said:
Nice work! That's a pretty stout Miller B/CAD look there but no guarantee of course. Most of the real big events in that cluster of dates plastered climatologically favored areas of far NW piedmont & mountains and left areas further SE shafted. (Dec 25-26 1969, Dec 25 1981, Dec 18-19 2009)
Click to expand...

The 12z CMC run is ironically a lot like these 3 aforementioned events.

December 25 1981 NC Snowmap.gif

December 18-19 2009 NC Snowmap.gif

Screen Shot 2020-12-09 at 11.49.21 AM.png
 
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