ATLwxfan
Member
Cold chasing moisture. Cold chasing moisture. Cold chasing moisture.
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Ostrich December
- Thread starter SETNwx
- Start date
26F, a little less frost than I expected, but we did meet the forecasted low. Mid 20s in early December is A-ok with me
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
We are going to have so many more cold days then warm days. Just those couple of warm days we are gonna have precip. Then cold lol. Winter in the SE
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Stephenb888
Member
This whole board deserves a big snowstorm around Christmas after a year like this. Let’s make it happen.
Icebox 
I’ll take member 7 and cash out now please.
Stephenb888
Member
Is this good news?
Philstorm91
Member
If we could just get all the cold to actually park over the CONUS for a few weeks, all of us could cash in on some snow by the New Year. At least the +PNA looks good for a while.
If you like long range weather porn, yes.
Stephenb888
Member
What exactly is considered long range? This is only 2 weeks out. Is that a lot for models?
I doubt the +PNA will really be a deciding factor between getting snow or not. This week, ours will be too strong, although if we do get snow, it will be from -EPO, which should eventually retrograde into the SER. Models are very much in disagreement as to when that process will happen, but that's just my two cents.
Dawgdaze22
Member
Honestly I'm just taking December 16th-18th to the bank. Start the thread.
I'd be ok with this.
Probably won't happen, but it's good to see the model still knows how to draw it.
Probably won't happen, but it's good to see the model still knows how to draw it.
AJ1013
Member
Low of 52F here this morning. Coldest of the season lol
Are my eyes deceiving me ?? Is the -NAO coming back to save us .. or is this just another mirage .. it’s been years since we’ve had a solid -NAO help us out
The last strong -NAO was 10 years ago so we are overdue. Interesting how cold Florida was recently and how December 2010 looked for them.
AJ1013
Member
^^ YES YES YES YES YES lol.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Definitely looks like all systems go from now thru mid-December, and we'll probably have the coldest air of the season knocking on our door step later in week 2 & we definitely won't be torching for a little while. High-latitude North Pacific blocking regimes like this one deliver the coldest patterns possible around here and they typically morph into -WPOs/+EPO/-PNA a week or so after the -EPO peaks.
I think we'll eventually start to transition to a more canonical Nina regime w/ Aleutian ridge/-PNA/SE ridge by the Winter Solstice (Dec 21st) or so give or take a few days, but there's some considerable uncertainty in this idea & we could go off the beaten path in a big/dramatic way. My current expectation is the whole North Pacific wave pattern will continue retrograding beyond mid-month, leading to the development of a -WPO/+EPO/-PNA w/ the establishment of a big Aleutian ridge in week 3, SE Canada vortex that initially delivers big shots of cold air towards the east-central US & retrogrades towards the Canadian Rockies/central Canada, destroying whatever -NAO we've established in the process & replacing it w/ a stout +NAO as we close in on the 4th week of December (Dec 21-28). Furthermore, the return of Indian Ocean convection next week as shown on both the GEFS & EPS, would give us a positive lag of about 10 days or so for a +NAO to reappear (putting us at Dec 20th ish).
Now, when exactly the transition to a more canonical NINA/SE ridge regime begins is dependent in large part on what initial state the NAO is in imo in addition to the evolution of subseasonal tropical forcing. If we get a very strong, persistent Greenland block/-NAO in week 2, it would probably delay the flip to a warmer regime a little longer, say towards Christmas (or even after that) instead of the Winter Solstice.
As it stands now, (& as I've discussed for a week or more), we should see a legit -EPO come calling in week 2 and deliver some seriously cold air into east-central N America by mid-December. After that the question mark is how long that pattern holds, I believe it will probably terminate around the winter solstice (Dec 21), but it realistically could take until after Christmas for that happen, and that's the only major change I've had in my thinking the past few days. In this latter case, where the good pattern holds thru Christmas thanks largely to the initially intense -NAO, we could be setup for something good in time for the heart of the Holiday Season. Regardless, I think it's at least probable if not likely that we'll eventually see a legit, prolonged warm spell settle in prior to the New Years in the SE US.
Thereafter, it's almost anyone's guess and remains to be seen what could happen, but it's not unrealistic to think we might see a better pattern return around mid-January or so, but that's largely speculation on my end & trying to anticipate how fast the tropical convection in the Indian Ocean propagates into the western Pacific again (it usually takes longer than usual in La Ninas).
I think we'll eventually start to transition to a more canonical Nina regime w/ Aleutian ridge/-PNA/SE ridge by the Winter Solstice (Dec 21st) or so give or take a few days, but there's some considerable uncertainty in this idea & we could go off the beaten path in a big/dramatic way. My current expectation is the whole North Pacific wave pattern will continue retrograding beyond mid-month, leading to the development of a -WPO/+EPO/-PNA w/ the establishment of a big Aleutian ridge in week 3, SE Canada vortex that initially delivers big shots of cold air towards the east-central US & retrogrades towards the Canadian Rockies/central Canada, destroying whatever -NAO we've established in the process & replacing it w/ a stout +NAO as we close in on the 4th week of December (Dec 21-28). Furthermore, the return of Indian Ocean convection next week as shown on both the GEFS & EPS, would give us a positive lag of about 10 days or so for a +NAO to reappear (putting us at Dec 20th ish).
Now, when exactly the transition to a more canonical NINA/SE ridge regime begins is dependent in large part on what initial state the NAO is in imo in addition to the evolution of subseasonal tropical forcing. If we get a very strong, persistent Greenland block/-NAO in week 2, it would probably delay the flip to a warmer regime a little longer, say towards Christmas (or even after that) instead of the Winter Solstice.
As it stands now, (& as I've discussed for a week or more), we should see a legit -EPO come calling in week 2 and deliver some seriously cold air into east-central N America by mid-December. After that the question mark is how long that pattern holds, I believe it will probably terminate around the winter solstice (Dec 21), but it realistically could take until after Christmas for that happen, and that's the only major change I've had in my thinking the past few days. In this latter case, where the good pattern holds thru Christmas thanks largely to the initially intense -NAO, we could be setup for something good in time for the heart of the Holiday Season. Regardless, I think it's at least probable if not likely that we'll eventually see a legit, prolonged warm spell settle in prior to the New Years in the SE US.
Thereafter, it's almost anyone's guess and remains to be seen what could happen, but it's not unrealistic to think we might see a better pattern return around mid-January or so, but that's largely speculation on my end & trying to anticipate how fast the tropical convection in the Indian Ocean propagates into the western Pacific again (it usually takes longer than usual in La Ninas).