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Ostrich December

GEFS looks quite solid for alabama and georgia

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The 27-28th is the timeframe to watch for Carolina folks. If we could slow down the departure of the big trough (more confluence; seen that trend happen plenty of times in the medium range) or maybe sort out the northern stream stuff out west (so it's not such a broad system), this could be a legit storm. Just a few degrees too warm here.
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Stormdoc said:
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I know folks are focused on Christmas Day storm, but being east of the mountains I’m intrigued by a few days later. We need that SE Canada vortex to hold strong and less SE ridging and we may have a shot. Lol RDW I just saw your post after posting mine! Great minds think alike
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Agreed!!
 
RVD said:
The 27-28th is the timeframe to watch for Carolina folks. If we could slow down the departure of the big trough (more confluence; seen that trend happen plenty of times in the medium range) or maybe sort out the northern stream stuff out west (so it's not such a broad system), this could be a legit storm. Just a few degrees too warm here.
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Very Possible given setups. Look at the CMC model got a strip of snow along the NC/SC border
 
I would say this storm is looking better for us west folks.
GEFSSE_prec_meansnacc_150.png
 
You all are grasping at straws with Christmas Day storm. Cold chasing moisture hardy bodes well for anyone outside the mountains. (And maybe the folks in the Midwest). The rest of the south, not so much. Barring some major changes with this system, I would really be taking the pessimistic position. I love snow as much as everyone else on this board. But climatology speaking, this is a horrible setup. Will things change between now and Christmas? For sure! But we still got 6 more days of modeling. The mesoscale modeling isn’t even within range. And we still need to wait for the NAM to really focus in the the 750’s and 925’s. Just my amateur thoughts as of now.


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NorthGaWinter4 said:
I know it’s not 2010. But didn’t the euro eventually cave to the GFS in the Christmas 2010 storm?
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Actually the GFS was the first to pick up that storm in the 8-10 day range, then lost it only for the Euro to pick it up 6 days out. The GFS came back to it a day later and then both models suppressed to far south and east 2 days out only to bring it back the next day.
 
GEFS goes boom then CMC says nah but wait Christmas Day snow squalls? Win. And yes I believe the time after Christmas looks extremely interesting .. Gfs shows what actual blocking can do to a pattern and a storm and I think we will see More models grab onto that type of scenario where the flow gets extremely slowed down and you start seeing that counter clockwise motion in the atmosphere with all the blocking
 
RVD said:
The 27-28th is the timeframe to watch for Carolina folks. If we could slow down the departure of the big trough (more confluence; seen that trend happen plenty of times in the medium range) or maybe sort out the northern stream stuff out west (so it's not such a broad system), this could be a legit storm. Just a few degrees too warm here.
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When you say Carolina are you just talking about nc only or you talking nc and sc
 
Storm5 said:
5 days out , yes. Until the euro joins the party this is just a fantasy. Even the cmc is backing off a bit


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I was just gonna say that...CMC starting to correct. #failmusic


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NorthGaWinter4 said:
Yeah i didn’t like that look either. For once the cmc is probably most realistic:(
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I almost want to see CMC go Euro at 0z and at least take us out of our misery. I’d rather know it ain’t happening and then be surprised by a brief flizzard on Christmas.


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I find it hard to believe our trough is pulling out that fast. I don’t really get it tbh besides it getting caught up with that low in the N Atlantic and pulling poleward.8F1AE82D-FBB9-43BB-89ED-94F9855EE4AD.gif
 
ryan1234 said:
You all are grasping at straws with Christmas Day storm. Cold chasing moisture hardy bodes well for anyone outside the mountains. (And maybe the folks in the Midwest). The rest of the south, not so much. Barring some major changes with this system, I would really be taking the pessimistic position. I love snow as much as everyone else on this board. But climatology speaking, this is a horrible setup. Will things change between now and Christmas? For sure! But we still got 6 more days of modeling. The mesoscale modeling isn’t even within range. And we still need to wait for the NAM to really focus in the the 750’s and 925’s. Just my amateur thoughts as of now.


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So what if some are "grasping at straws", so what if the GFS is on an island and climo is against it, it's a model showing a potential for some. That's fun, that's why people discuss weather on a weather forum, it's their prerogative if they "buy into it" and get excited. They're not broadcasting official forecast and if it leads to disappointment oh well they had fun tracking and dreaming. I feel like your the guy that will tell his 3 yo there's no Santa Claus. Have some fun, don't be a killjoy
 
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