Ostrich December

olhausen · Dec 19, 2020

Ron Burgundy said:
We clearly need to recruit more TN folks. They should be bouncing off the walls.

It’s definitely got my attention but most likely outcome by game day is rain changing to heavy wet snow which dumps a half to one inch of snow. Either way I love the fact we are looking at a second event of the season and especially so close to Christmas. It’s been a great December with these slightly below temps so far and early snow.

jjwxman · Dec 19, 2020

The dang Euro is determined to drag our disappointed butts right through the Christmas holiday without any flakes whatsoever. Definitely looks more like a severe outbreak instead. And what happened to the bitterly cold air? Honestly, the 00z looks nothing like the run just 24 hours ago in regards to the surging cold. It’s really not impressive even...

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NickyBGuarantee · Dec 19, 2020

jjwxman said:
The dang Euro is determined to drag our disappointed butts right through the Christmas holiday without any flakes whatsoever. Definitely looks more like a severe outbreak instead. And what happened to the bitterly cold air? Honestly, the 00z looks nothing like the run just 24 hours ago in regards to the surging cold. It’s really not impressive even...

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One model

BufordWX · Dec 19, 2020

FWIW the 06z GFS is sticking to its guns for those west of the mountains. It even looks a little better then the 00z run.

POWERSTROKE · Dec 19, 2020

Nick_boynton_ said:
One model

Yep the main model. The non event ice storm euro said nothing much and was right which most of the time it is. It has to be on board generally for anything to happen

BufordWX · Dec 19, 2020

I think member 8 on the GEFS malfunctioned. Lol

BufordWX · Dec 19, 2020

BufordWX said:
I think member 8 on the GEFS malfunctioned. LolView attachment 58725 View attachment 58728

Just to make sure this is known, the GEFS looks very good if you look at the mean, but be aware that member 8 is skewing the mean greatly. Although there are a few interesting members.

Montanasnow30 · Dec 19, 2020

BufordWX said:
I think member 8 on the GEFS malfunctioned. LolView attachment 58725 View attachment 58728

Jesus Christ sign me up

FallsLake · Dec 19, 2020

At least (right this second) I've got wording for snow in my grid forecast:
Thursday Night
A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Christmas Day
A chance of snow showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 42. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

RBR71 · Dec 19, 2020

FallsLake said:
At least (right this second) I've got wording for snow in my grid forecast:
Thursday Night
A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Christmas Day
A chance of snow showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 42. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

So do I, surprised to see that from Rah NWS that's for sure. They're usually very conservative

JJr · Dec 19, 2020

BufordWX said:
I think member 8 on the GEFS malfunctioned. LolView attachment 58725 View attachment 58728

Whoever completed the radar upgrade is probably tweaking the models now

BirdManDoomW · Dec 19, 2020

I bet the MTN counties will be crowded Christmas Day with visitors looking for snow close by. Really going to be ripping up there and brutal wind chills. What an awesome winter up there for skiing thanksgiving right into Christmas Day.

Webberweather53 · Dec 19, 2020

Wow that 0z Euro run was a total snooze fest for Xmas Eve into Xmas.

Blue_Ridge_Escarpment · Dec 19, 2020

Webberweather53 said:
Wow that 0z Euro run was a total snooze fest for Xmas Eve into Xmas.

Give me snow or give me coal!

ajr · Dec 19, 2020

Pattern is definitely active on the GEFS -- nothing specific, but looks like ~12/27-12/28 and ~new years will be some systems to track

SD · Dec 19, 2020

Classic mega frost this morning. Roofs, shrubs, grass, cars covered

Ethan80963 · Dec 19, 2020

Here were the 6z GEFSv12 members through d10

Jessy89 · Dec 19, 2020

Ethan80963 said:
Here were the 6z GEFSv12 members through d10
View attachment 58731

E24 please and I’ll call it a winter

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Deleted member 1449 · Dec 19, 2020

NCSNOW · Dec 19, 2020

The local weather man did good job of explaining meteorology v/s modelology. He knows everyones phone apps are run off GFS model showing white Christmas.

SD · Dec 19, 2020

Webberweather53 said:
Wow that 0z Euro run was a total snooze fest for Xmas Eve into Xmas.

Slower with the front too. Looks like it kicks off some anafrontal stuff in the central and eastern Carolinas but caa is slow

NCSNOW · Dec 19, 2020

SD said:
Classic mega frost this morning. Roofs, shrubs, grass, cars covered

Boy you said that right. Half inch snow storm couldnt match this frost. Even on the concrete driveway some

Blue_Ridge_Escarpment · Dec 19, 2020

All the way down to 14 here this morning. Not sure I’ve ever seen a frost this heavy. Looks like rime ice all over the trees.

Storm5 · Dec 19, 2020

Eps is meh . Gfs and GEFS seem to be on crack

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SD · Dec 19, 2020

NCSNOW said:
Boy you said that right. Half inch snow storm couldnt match this frost. Even on the concrete driveway some

Even the screens on my porch are covered

Oconeexman · Dec 19, 2020

Frozen fog here this a.m.
Multiple wrecks throughout the county.

SD · Dec 19, 2020

The Euro tried to make the base of the trough interesting

floop-ecmwf_full-2020121900.500hv.conus.gif

BHS1975 · Dec 19, 2020

UK is flatter.

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Rain Cold · Dec 19, 2020

SD said:
The Euro tried to make the base of the trough interestingView attachment 58732

If it would detach somehow, it could theoretically phase with that second wave dropping in behind the front. Not impossible.

SD · Dec 19, 2020

Rain Cold said:
If it would detach somehow, it could theoretically phase with that second wave dropping in behind the front. Not impossible.

I'm hoping for a Christmas miracle

BHS1975 · Dec 19, 2020

Rain Cold said:
If it would detach somehow, it could theoretically phase with that second wave dropping in behind the front. Not impossible.

Like this?

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whatalife · Dec 19, 2020

Just a little change...

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Rain Cold · Dec 19, 2020

BHS1975 said:
Like this?

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That would be nice!

whatalife · Dec 19, 2020

whatalife said:
Just a little change...

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You keep these up...fun and games are on the table for some.

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Montanasnow30 · Dec 19, 2020

BufordWX said:
Just to make sure this is known, the GEFS looks very good if you look at the mean, but be aware that member 8 is skewing the mean greatly. Although there are a few interesting members.View attachment 58730 View attachment 58729

I wonder what would need to happen for member 8 to verify

Meteorologist1999 · Dec 19, 2020

whatalife said:
Just a little change...

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I think maybe the Midlands of SC needs to watch this one also.

Ron Burgundy · Dec 19, 2020

Montanasnow30 said:
I wonder what would need to happen for member 8 to verify

Asteroid IYAM

RBR71 · Dec 19, 2020

SD said:
Classic mega frost this morning. Roofs, shrubs, grass, cars covered

Yep even a thin veil of fog left some frost up in some trees, took pic but it seriously didn't do it justice

AJ1013 · Dec 19, 2020

71/54 here yesterday. Low of 57F this morning. Christmas looks super cold, coldest in at least 25 years likely!

RBR71 · Dec 19, 2020

Ethan80963 said:
Here were the 6z GEFSv12 members through d10
View attachment 58731

I've seen worse

Ostrich December

-NAO/+PNA/-AO

Snow and Ice Contractor

Meanager and I don't care

WilkesboroDude

Hometown: Spartanburg, SC, Political Science

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