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Ostrich December

MichaelJ said:
Just a note of caution here, the GFS/GEFS are right about like a broken clock, twice every winter while the EURO is closer to being right about 80% of the time when it comes to wintry precipitation. It appears we will lose the -AO and -NAO around the first of the year, but will get a +PNA
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I’ll take a +PNA all day.
 
BufordWX said:
Just to make sure this is known, the GEFS looks very good if you look at the mean, but be aware that member 8 is skewing the mean greatly. Although there are a few interesting members.View attachment 58730View attachment 58729
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GEFS has been very consistent showing a few monster members now for the past several runs. Still much to be resolved.
 
Good increase
GEFSSE_prec_meansnacc_156.png
 
FallsLake said:
PNA should stay positive into the LR
NAO looks neutral in the LR because of members on both sides of the fence
AO looks to stay solidly negative (by average)

I'm with you, the PNA being positive is what gets us winter storms.

CPC - Climate Weather Linkage: Teleconnections (noaa.gov)
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Actually, according to the NC Climate Office, a -NAO is the biggest factor in getting us snow around here.

Global Patterns: Influences on NC Snowfall | North Carolina Climate Office

climate.ncsu.edu climate.ncsu.edu
 
Ron Burgundy said:
Ha! Didn’t realize that was you! I mean, do you really not see much similarity between the ‘00 storm and the 12z Euro, or were you being facetious?
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Look at the date. I posted this in November. I see how that can be misleading.
 
Montanasnow30 said:
I wonder what would need to happen for member 8 to verify
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A massive, bombing cutoff ULL centered just off PCB crawling NE. That or Cold air over taking the squall line and dropping 6-12 inch an hour rates. Both as likely as getting a bite by a radioactive spider and thinking it’s ok to run around in multicolored spandex.
 
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Shawn said:
Looks like I'll prepare for a wind storm on Christmas over snowflakes. Gotta get tie-downs for my reindeer decorations today. :rolleyes:
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We got my 4 yr old a 14 foot trampoline my wife somehow thinks I can put together in the dark on xmas eve. This storm is saving my butt!!! No way to do it in the rain and wind.
 
Shaggy said:
We got my 4 yr old a 14 foot trampoline my wife somehow thinks I can put together in the dark on xmas eve. This storm is saving my butt!!! No way to do it in the rain and wind.
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Been there done that. Sucks putting together a trampoline even in ideal weather. Sorry, back on topic.
 
Loganelliott99 said:
Nc gets shafted on the 12z GFS. Great run for tennessee, georgia and alabama though. Mountains really destroy hopes for snow in nc

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk
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Yeah, I would forget about getting snow from this system. I know that sounds harsh, but it’s not good for anybody to hug the only model that barely has a storm in an unfavorable setup in the longer range.
 
Arcc said:
A massive, bombing cutoff ULL centered just off PCB crawling NE. That or Cold air over taking the squall line and dropping 6-12 inch an hour rates. Both as likely as getting a bite by a radioactive spider and thinking it’s ok to run around in multicolored spandex.
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In other words.. forget it. :(
 
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