The latest run has the 2nd system coming in earlier this run. 
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Ostrich December
- Thread starter SETNwx
- Start date
I wouldn’t say it’s really coming in earlier, very different setup. That was our 50/50 low the last run.
JLL1973
Member
good low pressure track for the midsouth on mondays system. Gfs with much more precip. Just not enough cold air around
The differences between the GFS and ICON are crazy!
ATLwxfan
Member
Too many if thens usually means no.
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Yeah that ain’t a snow look. Maybe onset ice for northern Virginia. And I mean like 5 mins of ice tops
Bro wtf 
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
Too bad that NE L isn't an H about 300 miles south!
Check out this low transfer ?
Yeah doubt it.
but at second glance it looks like a low prossure system coming up from south FL and running just off the Carolina coast?
Yeah doubt it.
but at second glance it looks like a low prossure system coming up from south FL and running just off the Carolina coast?
Worse. 
@Myfrotho704_ If those heights in the Arctic are to be believed, then those low heights are coming south in a hurry
Hmmm
should be interesting to see what the euro does, with the second system it’s sorta matched the GFS lately
Sigh 
The GEFS trended in the wrong direction. Much warmer. SMH
Note this is the run-to-run change
Note this is the run-to-run change
Went from this 
To this
To this
I guess there’s just no consistency and models can’t be taken seriously, run to run changes are absolutely insane right now, it’s frustrating
I love the -AO/-NAO, but the Pacific looks really bad. That’s not to say we can’t thread the needle with a +PNA though. I’m not getting really excited until we see that nice ringing over AK, which may be possible if we get the MJO to go into phase 7 or 8. The latest GEFS has it nearing phase 7 around Christmas.
Dang euro is still not that bad, more separation actually 
Just a little to warm, cool those sfc temps down 5 degrees and it’s there, but imo this one is on the hot seat 
While tonight has sucked, much better euro run for the 2nd system 
BufordWX
Member
If anyone is turning into a big winner tonight it’s OKC. Euro showing 3-5 inches across the metro now.
Brent
Member
BufordWX
Member
Oklahoma has probably been one of the more successful areas early this winter.
-Major ice storm before Halloween with a few inches of snow in the northwest corner.
-heavy snow event for the northwest part of the state last week. (Didn’t impact OKC though)
-possible wide spread 2-5 inches across the state this weekend.
For not even being halfway through December yet I gotta say that they have started out pretty good this winter. Hopefully they keep it going late January into March when I’m there again!
Like the trends here with that SE Canada vortex, just hope can get more ridging around the GL 
Terrible evolution of the PV that gets dislodged.. The Euro looks(was looking) to push it down into Canada and maybe south into Montana, upper plains, but the GFS just destroys the North Pacific pattern, +EPO from hades, and you get this.. Alaska super cold: 
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MRX on top o' things:
The main questions is how much cold air will be able to advect
into the area before the QPF exits. While its a bit early still,
guidance is in decent agreement regarding thermal profiles with the
ECMWF a touch cooler than the GFS. At this point, I think there is
enough consensus at the moment to say that rain will change to snow
showers early Monday. I would suspect most of the QPF pulls out of
the area before any meaningful snow can occur but again it is still
early and lot can change between now and Sunday night.
The main questions is how much cold air will be able to advect
into the area before the QPF exits. While its a bit early still,
guidance is in decent agreement regarding thermal profiles with the
ECMWF a touch cooler than the GFS. At this point, I think there is
enough consensus at the moment to say that rain will change to snow
showers early Monday. I would suspect most of the QPF pulls out of
the area before any meaningful snow can occur but again it is still
early and lot can change between now and Sunday night.
I know it's the CFS, but it provides the "goods" throughout it's (1 month) run. What intrigues me is not the 2 or 3 fantasy storms it has, but the cold shots that continually come through. It would indicate that blocking is here to stay.
Models: CFS — Pivotal Weather
Models: CFS — Pivotal Weather
whatalife
Moderator
NCSNOW
Member
out 7 days the 6z GFS. has 2 waves as well. Who's backyard is that in ENC?
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
It's close--just a tad east--for @metwannabe . The GFS sounding for the Triad monday afternoon was decent--below freezing from ~950 up. I could see some wet snow for the NW piedmont if the sounding is close.
This is getting stupid close 
?
GFS back to looking like trash in the LR again. Hopefully, it's just the GFS doing GFS things.
Shaggy
Member
Makes the New England crowd happy over the next 16 days. That would be a good month for them.
I'd chase! Lol