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Wintry January 8-9 Wintery Weather Potential!

From the best GSP

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 230 PM EST Monday: No significant changes in the overall
thinking for the Thursday night into Friday winter storm. A strong
upper low at 500 mb will likely pass just to our south Thursday
evening into Friday. A leading surface low pressure system will
slowly strengthen Thursday night before more rapidly strengthening
into Friday thanks to a stronger baroclinic zone near the coast.
Steady moisture advection first off the Gulf of Mexico transitioning
to off the of Atlantic combined with deep lift (strong isentropic
lift at lower levels and large scale ascent aloft) should support at
least moderate precipitation at times, possibly with periods of
heavy precipitation during the best overlap between forcing and
moisture Thursday night into early Friday. Temperature profiles
should support mostly snow across the mountains and possibly into
the I-40 corridor with a transition zone probably setting up between
roughly the I-40 and I-85 corridors outside of the mountains, with
mainly rain south of I-85. That being said, the latest EC showed a
jogged a bit north with the upper low in its latest run, which would
support warmer profiles and a bit more in the way of liquid
precipitation should this trend continue. A brief period of
northwest flow snow showers are possible in the storms wake late
Friday or Friday night. High pressure will build in this weekend
with mostly sunny skies and below normal temperatures. Another
colder storm may be on the horizon for early next week.
 
metwannabe said:
Rah NWS throwing out a very localized HWO for possible rain/snow mix for NW Piedmont early Friday.... that's good, they are very conservative and cautious with pulling trigger on wintry precip.
Click to expand...
That was from this morning. They may expand that shortly. Their LR discussion is not yet out, but their Aviation has this:

Outlook: After a lingering, fleeting chance of sprinkles or areas of
light rain, and brief MVFR ceilings, through Tue evening, skies will
clear overnight. A storm system will result in another episode of
widespread rain, possibly mixed with snow over the Piedmont, and
LIFR-IFR conditions over cntl NC late Thu night-Fri.
 
Another note is the NAM is much slower as well. Moisture hasn't even made it into the Western Carolinas by 6Z Friday morning, where the Euro already has the changeover taking place by that time.
 
iGRXY said:
Another note is the NAM is much slower as well. Moisture hasn't even made it into the Western Carolinas by 6Z Friday morning, where the Euro already has the changeover taking place by that time.
Click to expand...

Nam probably wouldn’t work out if moisture is to slow. But of course we know moisture usually arrives earlier then models show.


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iGRXY said:
Another note is the NAM is much slower as well. Moisture hasn't even made it into the Western Carolinas by 6Z Friday morning, where the Euro already has the changeover taking place by that time.
Click to expand...
Yeah thats one of the known issues with long range NAM. It is often to slow. It will likely speed up to other models in the next few runs.
 
FallsLake said:
That was from this morning. They may expand that shortly. Their LR discussion is not yet out, but their Aviation has this:

Outlook: After a lingering, fleeting chance of sprinkles or areas of
light rain, and brief MVFR ceilings, through Tue evening, skies will
clear overnight. A storm system will result in another episode of
widespread rain, possibly mixed with snow over the Piedmont, and
LIFR-IFR conditions over cntl NC late Thu night-Fri.
Click to expand...
Doh!! Lol I really should check the time stamp on those, I haven't looked all day and just assumed. Thanks

edit: yeah they're a little late with the AFD, probably going to be some good info in there (by good I mean good explanation not necessarily a snowy forecast ;) )
 
Only thing I have a hard time with is what time is 00z 06z 12z 18z etc


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metwannabe said:
Doh!! Lol I really should check the time stamp on those, I haven't looked all day and just assumed. Thanks

edit: yeah they're a little late with the AFD, probably going to be some good info in there (by good I mean good explanation not necessarily a snowy forecast ;) )
Click to expand...
And here you go:

Hazardous Weather Outlook
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
410 PM EST Mon Jan 4 2021

NCZ007>011-021>027-038>041-052115-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-
Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-
410 PM EST Mon Jan 4 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

A rain and snow mix is possible across the Piedmont early and late
Friday, associated with a strong low pressure system crossing the
Southeast and Carolinas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

$$

JJT
 
Here's what FFC has for the first system:
The main forecast challenges that surround this system are...1) the
chances for a brief period of wintry precip at the onset across NE
Georgia with residual cold air in place... and 2) the duration and
extent of wintry precipitation (rain/snow or all snow) as the cold
core (upr low) moves across the state Thursday night into Friday
morning. As it stands now, the best chance for any snow or mix of
rain and snow will be across the higher elevations of far north GA
(roughly north of a Summerville to Jasper to Homer line).

Across this region, longer-range models tend to struggle with "snow"
associated with closed off upr lows, especially during the Winter
season, but given we`re still a few days out, will continue to ride
the more conservative approach to snowfall until the event falls
more within the short-term / higher-res model window (72-84 hours
out). No major changes to the existing forecast for Thurs/Fri.
Click to expand...
 
FallsLake said:
And here you go:

Hazardous Weather Outlook
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
410 PM EST Mon Jan 4 2021

NCZ007>011-021>027-038>041-052115-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-
Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-
410 PM EST Mon Jan 4 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

A rain and snow mix is possible across the Piedmont early and late
Friday, associated with a strong low pressure system crossing the
Southeast and Carolinas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

$$

JJT
Click to expand...
Well I have rain/snow mix in my forecast now, 4 days out I will take it lol
 
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