Precip has been speeding up, which offers better timing when it enters 
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Wintry January 8-9 Wintery Weather Potential!
- Thread starter Ollie Williams
- Start date
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- Tags
- winter
You know, I'm glad I approved your member request ?
Don't get too psyched up. It's also warmer.
Agreed, I think that is one reason we are seeing temps trend colder. Earlier onset + increasing frontogentically forced bands is really changing the thermal equation.
The ICON’s had that dry spot for the past couple runs, no?
I agree. The difference that I’m seeing though is that it’s entirely possible that more folks just to the south could get in on the fun. I would have to think being in early January as opposed to early December helps.
The RGEM is looking awesome I-85 northward! Folks forget that it runs out to 84 hours now! It does a good job at spotting banding.
Yeah I'm not really too worried about qpf atm, that storm track is a beaut.
Another just brutal one. I would say I’d be fine with that solution this time just because the past winter was so horrid, but that wouldn’t even be like a little half inch coating the ground, more like a sloppy half-melted quarter inch mixed with rain. Let’s hope that this far out it doesn’t come true!
And best of all, it’s falling during daylight hours!
Damn if there’s been one thing that’s consistently popping up, it’s the mesoscale banding with this system
That was horrible. Just horrible.
That one was awesome! I wasn't supposed to get anything, but got an inch and a half on frozen ground!
farleydawg792
Member
GFS is running....
The RGEM also gets down to 32 north of I-40!
NCSNOW
Member
Man The GFS 0z is way futher south at hr42/44 whichever it is verse 18z
GFS is less amped so far
NCSNOW
Member
Back to 18z position by 62
Jessy89
Member
Gfs looks warmer to me for upstate meh
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Yeah, it got colder at 850, although less amped made the totals go down. I'm now buying the less amped solution.
Edit: Warmer
Near Concord NC bullseye ?
Idk if it’ll be that less Amped tbh, but I could see something close to this, means a flatter wave but more BL temp issues
Cad Wedge NC
Member
Meh..... let's see what the ensembles have to say.lol
I'll reserve judgment until the euro, seeing the ICON and NAM solutions makes me suspect of that GFS depiction, we shall see
I don’t really buy the GFS being that less amped, but honestly something butween a very amped system and a weaker/flatter solution could be decent, just don’t want to much amplification, but don’t want to much flatness
Gfs was this close 
iGRXY
Member
Gfs opened up the wave and that’s why you got the solution we did. Not buying it
Agreed. The combo of the RGEM/NAM/Euro/EPS are hard to beat any way, and this event is likely one that will highlight all of the deficiencies in the current operational GFS.
I mean the EPS is hard to beat when it is this dang gung-ho on frozen precip. We can argue all day long about ptype, but it is clearly five alarming for some wintry weather in NC for about the past 4 or 5 runs as is the aforementioned other guidance.
Gfs opened up at 850 and 700 once you lose that definition you lose your good processes for attempting to keep things cold
---- the CMC 
It’s actually trending south 
CMC did same thing as the GFS opening up our ull, is no bueno