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Wintry January 8-9 Wintery Weather Potential!

Brick Tamland said:
You need to come up to the northern part of the county.
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You are going to get it too.
Unless there is a big south trend or we drop enough precip on the front end early to maybe cool more than modeled to hold off the change over for a couple extra hours it's coming. I would suspect it gets to youngsville if not north of there for a while
 
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Myfrotho704_ said:
At this point like brad said I think flakes will fly in Charlotte/Raleigh, but really my what’s revolving in my head is how far NW will the warm nose move, where does the deform band setup, honestly I think that’s where areas outside the mountains would score the most with given that precip is not driven by intense WAA/SW flow aloft
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Yeah, it looks like clt is going to be mostly rain with a few flakes mixing in IMO. Mountains get a great snow, 40 corridor North gets minor accumulations. That's about all I see at the moment. Deformation band likely further east seeing how far the surface low is from the coast. I hope it smacks Raleigh, they're due.

Hoping for an ensemble run in a couple weeks when the 3 inch mean gets down to rock hill.
 
Oh no the NAM!!!
modernweenie modernweenie modernweenie modernweenie
Out ahead
nam_2021010500_075_34.31--84.08.png

Deform band (Cherokee county GA):
nam_2021010500_084_34.23--84.48.png
 
DopplerWx said:
Nam is a thing of beauty. 84hr nam has never been wrong I’ve heard.
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I will say this... in both the January 2017 and December 2018, the NAM was picking up on the warm nose very early. A lot of folks, myself included, were certain in the January 2017 storm that it would correct as we came closer to the event and it never did. That’s how I went from 5-8 inches forecasted to 24 hours later having 1/4 inch of ice and 1/2 inch of snow on top.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I know it’s the long range NAM but I think it’s on to something with the cooler 925s, but I bet the warm nose becomes a issue gradually over several runs, front/middle part of the storm imo may be sleety
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Wonder if we get some onset precip that the models aren’t picking up on right now and help cool the 850’s quicker on the front end.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I know it’s the long range NAM but I think it’s on to something with the cooler 925s, but I bet the warm nose becomes a issue gradually over several runs, front/middle part of the storm imo may be sleety
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The Euro has been coldest at 925 and the nam backs that idea up. The warm nose wins eventually but I really liked that the nam had veered 850mb wind east just north and along that band it might help at least slow the northward progression along with adding convergence. Seems like our classic event of watching CC on radar and hoping for a miracle but at least the NAM would likely put down an accumulation on the front end
 
SD said:
The Euro has been coldest at 925 and the nam backs that idea up. The warm nose wins eventually but I really liked that the nam had veered 850mb wind east just north and along that band it might help at least slow the northward progression. Seems like our classic event of watching CC on radar and hoping for a miracle but at least the NAM woukd likely put down an accumulation on the front end
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yeah I’d watch the nam to see if it keeps that, those front end frontogenic bands can dump, I bet we’d switch over to rain/sleet in the middle then maybe snow on the backside of the storm
 
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