Wintry January 8-9 Wintery Weather Potential!

[ForsythSnow]

Man, that's close to something pretty good here and I haven't held out too much hope of this system, at all.

It's pretty close down here as well. Recent run-to-run soundings have been getting colder at the surface degree by degree. Prior runs had it iffy at 925 but the newer runs have been closing that gap.
12Z today

Vs 12Z yesterday

 

[LovingGulfLows]

It's pretty close down here as well. Recent run-to-run soundings have been getting colder at the surface degree by degree. Prior runs had it iffy at 925 but the newer runs have been closing that gap.
12Z today

Vs 12Z yesterday

That sounding is like 1 or 2 degrees off in the lower levels from a wet snow. It's no wonder the GEFS has trended better for portions of NGA. I'm curious when NAM/RGEM gets into range.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

“Shoved south to Carolinas”
Pack it up boys

 

[NCSNOW]

17.8” for GSO and 0.7” for RDU. LOL. What a crazy solution. Not gonna happen, though.

You get crazy lollipops with ULLs. Feb 28 ,2004 prime example. Not saying,pointing out 17 to 20 inch accums. But trying to illustrate you get these swaths where someone gets jackpotted in a narrow strip, while everyone else gets crumbs comparatively speaking.
What you see on these clown maps will happen.
However keep in mind for this storm a jackpot is a few wet inches in the grass verse a few miles up an down the road only expierencing white rain.

 

[cyclogent]

A sub-546dm upper low passing overhead or just south in January with 1/2" to 1" of precip and HP to the north? ok sounds good! ?

 

[Webberweather53]

If the deform band becomes a common persistent feature on high res models and we haven’t handed this threat off to the mid Atlantic in 2-3 days, I will 100% bite on this threat and gladly eat as much crow as you’d like to throw at me. Snow on Xmas morning then on my birthday (Jan 9) in the same winter would be my dream punishment for looking like a total clown thinking this storm wouldn’t do much in the days leading up to it outside the mtns

 

[EmersonGA]

It's pretty close down here as well. Recent run-to-run soundings have been getting colder at the surface degree by degree. Prior runs had it iffy at 925 but the newer runs have been closing that gap.
12Z today

Vs 12Z yesterday

I think GA just needs better rates. Just too warm at the surface even with a semi-conducive atmosphere.

 

[mrdaddyman]

I'm going to go with the 12Z UKMET snow accumulation map on this storm. I think this is the typical climo hit that we will get from it. I hope I am wrong with respect to my area, but it's just too hard to beat climo most of the time.

 

[NCSNOW]

12z Ukmet is a tick futher north compared to the 0Z Ukmet. Takes it from Atlanta to Elizabeth city as oppossed to Macon to Hatteras. Hers the 12z Clown.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

If the deform band becomes a common persistent feature on high res models and we haven’t handed this threat off to the mid Atlantic in 2-3 days, I will 100% bite on this threat and gladly eat as much crow as you’d like to throw at me. Snow on Xmas morning then on my birthday (Jan 9) in the same winter would be my dream punishment for looking like a total clown thinking this storm wouldn’t do much in the days leading up to it outside the mtns

I think overall you were right the temps are definitely marginal but I think what models are picking up .. with the deformation band that will be making someone very very happy.. those rates will cool the Atmosphere and bring some heavy snow down on where ever it sets up... and we all know the location of it won’t be known really until it actually forms on radar but we will have a good idea about it once it’s a day or two away ... cmon wake county don’t F this up we are like perfectly in the center of the state let this thing line up!!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

UKMET also shows some upper level energy after the system that’s close to some snow,

also here’s the difference vs last night and today
00z
12z

 

[KyloG]

Still feel this will end up looking like 2/6/10 just further south where southern VA is jackpot.

 

[LovingGulfLows]

12z Ukmet is a tick futher north compared to the 0Z Ukmet. Takes it from Atlanta to Elizabeth city as oppossed to Macon to Hatteras. Hers the 12z Clown.

View attachment 62481
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Yeah that's a perfect track for the mountains and western NC and looks pretty realistic. It pretty much drives home what Webber has been saying.

 

[NCSNOW]

Heres the 12z GFs and New 12z GFS for comparison sake: Hopefully the 12z Euro stays the course:

 

[Ollie Williams]

Still feel this will end up looking like 2/6/10 just further south where southern VA is jackpot.

View attachment 62489

Yeah, though I don't think that the southern edge will shift south with it.

 

[NCSNOW]

Love the new 12zGFS Clown lol: Pivot want let me pull up the soundings, just overloads with qpf ( 1inch+).

 

[Webberweather53]

Still feel this will end up looking like 2/6/10 just further south where southern VA is jackpot.

View attachment 62489

We all know what happened a week later in 2010. ?

 

[cyclogent]

GEFS slowly trending stronger with the HP out in front of this system. having lower dewpoints initially will help with evaporative cooling, and at this point, we don't need all that much. even lower elevations west of the mountains are just a few degrees away from a marshmallow event

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Huge increase on the CMCE after it was meh the last several Runs

 

[ryan1234]

My birthday is on Wednesday, so this would be a nice late gift from Mother Nature. Although, I’m trying to keep my hopes at a reasonable level.


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