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Wintry January 8-9 Wintery Weather Potential!

Ethan80963 said:
Man I really wish the RGEM went out further it would have been such a weenie run. Even if the ratios are lower than 10:1 this would have been crazy.
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Damn that bullseye is on top of my house. I've been notice some meso banding on several models has me excited but from experience thoose bands normally form toward hickory since I'm in prime downslope position someone along I-40 will get clobbered if it happens.
 
SimeonNC said:
The Upstate is more iffy but for the CLT metro this looks like one of those setups where different parts of the metro are in a whole different world from each other.
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Yep. I'd feel a lot better on your side of town. Not looking good down here.
 
Soon looks like the upstate sc maybe falling out of this one. Trend is going against the upstate and better for middle to eastern NC. Just such a marginal setup. Monday definitely has the most potential to include more people on the board


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iGRXY said:
I’m not too worried. We all know models are going to try and over correct one way to other. Oz you saw a shift north but 6z it shifted south again
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Northern Spartanburg county is almost certain to get some snow late this week. Not as certain for the city though.
 
Remember, 1 set of runs is not a trend. You are going to see overreacting on the models in both directions before they settle on a track. Blocking looked better over top with some more confluence in the east. To me, the I20 corridor is likely the most obvious place this ULL travels.
 
Jessy89 said:
Soon looks like the upstate sc maybe falling out of this one. Trend is going against the upstate and better for middle to eastern NC. Just such a marginal setup. Monday definitely has the most potential to include more people on the board


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This one could be a repeat of Dec 2009 which left all of SC outside of the mountains and most of NC south of I-85 out. If you got mostly snow then, you can expect snow with this one.
 
JHS said:
This one could be a repeat of Dec 2009 which left all of SC outside of the mountains and most of NC south of I-85 out. If you got mostly snow then, you can expect snow with this one.
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I could see Trends favoring a part of North eastern upstate. Maybe extreme northern Greenville and parts of Spartanburg and Cherokee counties. That low pressure just off the coast may sling moisture back into those few areas when temps are just cold enough. Likely leaving Pickens and oconee counties with nothing. But we will see


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NCSNOW said:
Last night Euro tracks low right down NC/SC state line. So it crep north, but put some right under the coldest air aloft just north of that in the 40 corridor. Also did a great job on that backside little deform band that has constantly been showing up. That band is what helps guys off to the east have a great shot. This time it was wake county down into the coastal plain.
We need to root for this thing to deepen some as its approaching the coast line, that imo would cause a quick little mini pivot movement so to speak and catch several on the backside for a couple of hours. By this time everyone will be on the north and west side, not have to woryy with waa messing up their 850's.

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at hr 84 the surface low goes from 1009 central SC coast, hr90 1006 mb @ MYB to 1004mb right at Hatteras, then cotinues deeping off to the NE afterwards

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It is really hard to not get excited with the Euro on your side.
 
SimeonNC said:
Soil temps will be irrelevant for areas that will see the heaviest snow imo.
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Soil temps are never irrelevant, especially when combined with above freezing BL temps and especially if it’s during the daylight hours. Just look at last February. Yes, they can be overcome, but they will impact accumulations.
 
Webberweather53 said:
I'm off work later this week, think I'm gonna go snow chasing in the mountains.
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I know every back road from here to Johnson city tenn with my eyes closed :=) and we have a guest house outside lol no bs though u head this way and need anything u hollar.
 
Mcdowell_weather said:
Really starting to hone in the southern escarpment/foothills good ole upslope
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Anyone chasing, Marion area isnt a bad spot imo. you can catch the eastern escarpment upslope. Shuffle north or south if need be. Wosrse comes to worse just slide up in to Mt Mitchell area bordering county. Whats the road from Old fort up into Linville/Little Switzerland area?
 
NCSNOW said:
Anyone chasing, Marion area isnt a bad spot imo. you can catch the eastern escarpment upslope. Shuffle north or south if need be. Wosrse comes to worse just slide up in to Mt Mitchell area bordering county. Whats the road from Old fort up into Linville/Little Switzerland area?
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US 221 will take you from Marion up into Linville Falls, Newland, Boone areas. NC-226 will take you from Marion to Little Switzerland, Spruce Pine, Blue Ridge Parkway.
 
Jessy89 said:
I could see Trends favoring a part of North eastern upstate. Maybe extreme northern Greenville and parts of Spartanburg and Cherokee counties. That low pressure just off the coast may sling moisture back into those few areas when temps are just cold enough. Likely leaving Pickens and oconee counties with nothing. But we will see


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These are my thoughts as well. This is basically a NC event but there may be a little something for the TR to Landrum folks. For the most part this just will not be an upstate snow unless we see that more southern track verify and that is unlikely given the setup and marginal cold.
 
I wouldn't get to excited about the 12K Nam, the 3K is much more accurate as the resolution is higher
 
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