3k isn't in range yet. I think we all know the risks of trusting either NAM
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Wintry January 8-9 Wintery Weather Potential!
- Thread starter Ollie Williams
- Start date
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- Tags
- winter
iGRXY
Member
that is the end of 3K run. It is not more accurate at this range at all.
iGRXY
Member
Snow breaking out big time in the upstate
Oh lawd
Jessy89
Member
I’d say the upstate got nammmmed proceed with caution
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smast16
Member
226 will take you from Marion to Spruce Pine, but 226A (The Left turn) will take you to Little Switzerland. I recommend NOT TAKING 226A if it's snowing. RIP.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
I don’t like taking 226A when it’s sunny and 70. Sometimes have to take 226A to get home if Coxes Creek Mountain is closed.
Jessy89
Member
The nam done went to Tennessee and got drunk off moonshine. Upstate areas getting 6 inches ain’t happening
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iGRXY
Member
4-6 across the upstate that run. Things are in limbo across the models. Some are south, some are north. The blocking over top and confluence is what I am watching closely. I just see this ULL tracking across the I20 corridor.
The 3K was too dry with the light Christmas Eve/Day event locally.
WXinCanton
Member
Can we stop with the “isn’t” or “definitely going to happen” verbiage? We aren’t following one model here, we are taking all the guidance and trying to make an informed decision. This is the south- winter weather is difficult to pin down and it always comes down to 1-2 days before, for the most part.
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B
Brick Tamland
Guest
I'll gladly take whatever frozen precip I can get from this one considering there is a legit shot at more to come next week.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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NAM has really been accurate this year up here! With type and track! Deadly, all 3
here's 10:1
That would set up the next storm greatly.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
6z minus 0z EPS. Looks like a favorable trend for the Carolinas.
Jessy89
Member
I get that. I’ll explain though why I don’t think it’s possible for the upstate to see 6 inches. Temps are marginal it’s possible a lot of this falls with temps in the mid 30s therefore if any accumulation does happen 1-3 inches would be a good early call. Maybe 2-4 at best. Now the mountains I’m thinking this could be a big dog.
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BlueRidgeFolklore
Member
I’m sitting right under the purple bullseye. Gonna be a fun night.
That's a nice sweet spot for Gilmer. Looks like Cherokee is starting to get some love.
BlueRidgeFolklore
Member
Yes it is. Should pan out good from Highlands to Hendersonville.
QPF spread for AVL still wide...would be great for you guys to get into the .8-1"+ qpf.
Tarheelwx
Member
This will be a slopfest in most places. I'd take those 10:1 accumulation maps and probably cut them by almost half. Hope I'm wrong though.
TW
TW
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
We've checked most of the boxes synoptically in the Carolinas. Can't ask for a better sfc low track for folks in the NW & western piedmont and chance at some backend snow east of there. We just need some mesoscale luck
iGRXY
Member
All of that fell in 33 degree temps so marginal isn't the right word for that run. 850's and 925's were colder as well.
iGRXY
Member
Looks like we are getting more CAD out ahead of the ULL as well.
There's several 226 on coxes creek takes u to spruce pine/burnsville and old 226 to little Switzerland I recommend coxes creek not alot of guardrails on the old road. Then there's buck creek N.C 80 one of the worst curviest roads on the east coast AAA top ten list that takes you to Mt Mitchell but the parkway to there will be closed ur best chance to get in that area is Buck creek it's an old gravel road that takes u to the parkway near the entrance of Mitchell evlevation around 5500ft. Then last is 221 that takes you to avery county sugar beach Boone ect and last but not least is peppers creek is a gravel road that takes up to the parkway were u can legally drive even if the gates are closed at 226 it's a locals back way in to drive on the parkway that dosent get plowed. And don't forget old hwy 105 22 miles of gravel through the gorge I recommend supplies and 4x4 for that route might get stranded. McDowell county in general wud be a good home base for all kinds of adventures there's a good motel at the intersection of 70 and 221/226 comfort in I believe that's were I'd stay it sits beside all major highways to any of the above destination brand new holiday inn just opened off exit 86
Dunkman
Member
I’ll never understand how the sites have such different maps. I know it’s Kuchera v. 10:1 but Pivotal has western Guilford County with 0.0” and TT has it at like 4-6” for the 84h NAM.
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Brick Tamland
Guest
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The only high end busts from a front-end thump when warm advection was modeled like this (Feb 12-13 2014 & Dec 2018) we had significant CAD in advance of the storm. Don't have a favorable sfc high position for that or enough cold air but would have been interesting if we did.
accu35
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I'm actually excited this time around, going towards the mountains.
Will Asheville do good with this storm?
Must. Look. AwayOh lawd
JHS
Member
Someone is going to end up like I did in Feb 1989. We got at least 6-8 inches of snow to fall, but when it stopped only about 2 was left on the ground. The rest had melted.
Snownut
Member
Well if the Nam is right, the upstate definitely is not missing out
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you can do it i did it's not hard.
iGRXY
Member
Even the Kuchera has a swatch of 2-5". Not saying we are getting that much but to say something isn't going to happen is ludicrous at this stage. We could end up all snow or all rain or somewhere in the middle. Could get 6 or 7" or could get none. Nothing is set and stone at all right now.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
I think they may have some downsloping issues out of the French broad River valley. Highlands looks like a really good spot. Elevation and south facing.
Well that nam run was something. Really dislike the trend of opening up aloft
Yeah at this point I think we just have to get into the 3km NAM/HRRR range to figure out the mesoscale details. Front end thump and back end banding appear likely.
I think I had 2-3 column crashing events in February of last year so it’s hard for me to throw the towel in completely. My expectations are tempered but I will play this game a bit longer. At least this is getting fun again.