Sdm4 basically touched on this with his post. The models are having issues with the transfer of the low to the Atlantic, when the low can gain added strength and increase totals further east. The Triangle may end up being in this slight dry slot, but way too early to tell
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Wintry January 8-9 Wintery Weather Potential!
- Thread starter Ollie Williams
- Start date
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- Tags
- winter
Yeah the NAM dries us out in the layers either side of 850 after the initial shot of FGEN/upglide. Not really sure about that
Jessy89
Member
The Gfs is why I’ve been saying marginal temps outside the mountains. Gfs shows that Euro showed it to.
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Yeah its over with
Softball sized snowflakes (still running)
Some of these GFS soundings are where dreams and nightmares are made:
GFS picking up on pockets of rate driven snow?
iGRXY
Member
Even the warm biased ICON was significantly colder at the surface than the GFS.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
I’m glad the replacement for the current GFS has a clue.
Avalanche
Member
Time to take a ride to Mocksville, Statesville 64 west.
We're going to get a big NAM precip explosion run soon. GFS has the column such that it literally could go either way. Unless we continue to trend better, I think we'll probably see thermals look more unfavorable as we near the event. That's not set in stone in my mind, but it's how these marginal setups usually go for areas east of the mountains and nw piedmont. Yesterday, I felt like we had a solid day of really good trends. Today, we're kind of holding steady. I don't think that will cut it in the end. Need to continue to see better trends, IMO.
farleydawg792
Member
Surface level much lower in Gulf with the Jan 11-12 system
To that I give you this sounding from basically our backyards just before things get going on the NAM
You have to wonder if the NAM has the correct thermals here and is late on moisture arrival/upglide just how much we could do on the front end.
I think any accumulations for central and eastern NC will occur at the end of the storm as it starts to pull away. This does go along with what RAH mentioned last night. Almost reminds me of the 2010 Christmas storm (mini version) where you had the initial western accumulations early in the day and the eastern accumulations later once the storm transferred/strengthened off shore. Dry slot somewhere in the middle??
As much as I'd like to see this pan out, I'm not believing it. I always wait to see what the short range models say about the thermal profiles before I get excited about snowfall. NAM is really good with sniffing out a warm nose.
GFS:
NAM12K:
Thank god I’m not in Union County anymore! Getting snow there is almost impossible. It’s almost like there is a wall that blocks anything wintry to make a significant impact there. I swear I’ve seen countless times where you drive over the broader to Mecklenburg going up Independence and you can go from cold rain to snow or ice. Maybe the big decrease in elevation plays a factor?
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packfan98
Moderator
GEFS looks much improved over the 6z run.
Jessy89
Member
Not necessarily marginal doesn’t mean it won’t happen. We could see better trends 24-36hrs before go time. That’s happened before
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iGRXY
Member
GEFS doesn't support the OP. And CMC is further south at 45.
850s are boiling on the cmc east of 77
iGRXY
Member
CMC is significantly south and stronger at 57
Tracks the 850mb low from BHM to CLT before it reforms off of the coast. suboptimal
I don't discount it, but we're looking toward the end of the NAM's range, which I almost always regard as highly suspect. It feel like it does a good job on thermals, but I usually wait till we get closer to start paying them much mind. That said, the precip on the front end and if the wave remains closed off would matter a great deal to how much snow we eventually see on the front and back ends. Getting that tongue of precip out ahead is often seen, so that may benefit us if it comes to pass and sets up in a good spot.
iGRXY
Member
850s are screaming on the CMC through 63.
iGRXY
Member
The GFS V16, NAM, GEFS, and EPS look good here. The OP do not. would much rather have the ensembles on my side
Nice to see someone in my neck of the woods. I have a gut feeling that it may be a highway 11 and north event, versus the I-85 cutoff. I live 3 miles north of Landrum of off 176
JHS
Member
A weaker version of Dec 2009. The rain/snow line is going to probably be within 20 miles of where it was with that one.
SouthSideYankee
Member
SouthSideYankee
Member
I think this will be a close call for amounts
Nomanslandva
Member
I'll hug CMC for now. Things really are all over the place but do seem to be converging. South outliers have come north and north outliers like GVS v16 have settled south. If it ends up like the CMC here, it has probably been the most steady with the placement of sensible weather. we'll see in 3 days ?
UK ??? we toss
MichaelJ
Member
I would not toss the UKMET, it does a good job generally in this time frame.If the EURO starts moving towards it, that combo is hard to beat
I was just about to post this map, lol. I hug warm models. They are right 99% of the time.
Yeah I know I was messing lol, it’s definitely a possible solution, however I’m more interested in what the NAM starts showing into tonight as it can handle frontogenic bands and stuff like that better
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
The thing is that the EURO and Icon are normally warm and less wintry as well. Haven't seen that yet
snowlover91
Member
As we get into range the 3km NAM and 12km NAM will be key to how this unfolds. I don't trust the RGEM as much since it seems to be too cold at times and globals just don't have the resolution needed to properly handle such a delicate balance between WAA and very marginal thermals.